EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis March 15, 2012, Forecast

By FX Empire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

The pair EUR/GBP is ending the day down at 0.8310 falling from 0.8330, although mid day the pair fell as low as 0.8290. The euro was weaker then the pound today, as it was mostly a battle as to who exhibited the most weakness.

The UK had a nasty jobs report out, the surprise of the day, was the number of British workers seeking jobless benefits rose by 7,200 in February to 1.61 million, the Office for National Statistics reported Wednesday. Economists had forecast a rise of 5,000. The number of unemployed persons rose by 28,000, rising well above forecasts, surprising lawmakers and economist.

Worldwide, the first-ever release of GDP data covering all the Group of 20 countries showed the world economy slowed to a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter from 0.9% in the third quarter.

The final Greece bailout was officially approved by the EU today, concluding 2 years of messy financial and political crisis.

Economic Reports and Events March 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment	-5.00%	4.20%
JPY	BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions	-7.3	1.3	-6.1
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	1.9%	2.1%	2.0%
JPY	BoJ Monthly Report
GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus	1.4%	1.9%	1.9%
GBP	Claimant Count Change	7.2K	6.0K	7.0K
EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.7%	2.7%	2.7%
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	0.7%	-1.1%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY)	1.5%	1.6%	1.5%
USD	Current Account	-124.1B	-114.0B	-108.0B
USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	0.4%	0.6%	0.0%

Economic Events Scheduled for March 15, 2012

09:30 CHF Interest Rate Decision 0.00% 0.00%

Swiss National Bank (SNB) governing board members come to a consensus on where to set the target range for the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

10:00 EUR ECB Monthly Report

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) monthly report contains the statistical data that policymakers evaluate when setting interest rates. The report also provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

11:00 EUR Employment Change (QoQ) -0.2% -0.1%

Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.

13:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) 0.2% 0.4%

13:30 USD PPI (MoM) 0.5% 0.1%

The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the selling price of goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. The PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller. When producers pay more for goods and services, they are more likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 356K 362K

13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3416K

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

13:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 17.4 19.5

The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York State.

14:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 29.3B 17.9B

Treasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions measures the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreign investors. Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation’s securities.

15:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 11.4 10.2

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in Philadelphia. A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.

Government Bond Auction Schedule (this week)

Mar 15 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction

Mar 15 09:50 France BTAN auction

Mar 15 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2042 conventional Gilt

Mar 15 10:50 France OATi auction

Mar 15 16:00 US Announces auction of 10Y TIPS on Mar 22

Originally posted here