Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis March 13, 2012, Forecast

By FX Empire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil fell in today’s session dropping as low as 105.39 before settling at 106.41. With supply disruptions almost behind and Iranian tensions toning down a notch or two, we should see Crude continue to fall slowly. There is no reason that it should be trading over 100.00 as OPEC is providing all that is necessary and with China reforecasting growth downwards and continuing economic troubles in the eurozone demand for Oil should continue to fall. This week’s inventory should be higher than expected with demand down so wait for prices to fall. Tomorrows FOMC minutes should have very little effects on the markets as nothing is expected.

March 12, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

Mar. 12	00:50	JPY	CGPI (YoY)	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%
00:50	JPY	Core Machinery Orders (MoM)	3.4%	2.3%	-7.1%
05:01	MYR	Malaysian Industrial Production (YoY)	0.2%	4.1%	2.9%
06:00	JPY	Household Confidence	39.5	40.6	40.0
06:30	INR	Indian Industrial Production (YoY)	6.8%	2.1%	2.5%
08:00	EUR	German WPI (MoM)	1.0%	1.1%	1.2%
10:00	EUR	Italian GDP (QoQ)	-0.7%	-0.7%	-0.7%
11:30	EUR	German 6-Month Bubill Auction	0.053%	0.076%

Scheduled Economic Events for March 13, 2012

US

13:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.8% 0.7%

13:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) 1.0% 0.4%

(Core and ) Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.

19:15 USD Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%

19:15 USD FOMC Statement

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. Along with the Decision the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement is the primary tool the panel uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of the vote on interest rates, discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.

Government Bond Auction Schedule (this week)

Mar 13 09:30 Netherlands Eur 2.5bn-3.5bn re-opened Apr 2015 DSL

Mar 13 10:10 Italy BOT auction

Mar 13 10:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Mar 13 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 22

Mar 13 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes

Mar 14 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction

Mar 14 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills

Mar 14 10:30 Swiss Bond auction

Mar 14 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond exchange auction on Mar 21

Mar 14 18:00 US Auctions 30Y Bonds

Mar 15 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction

Mar 15 09:50 France BTAN auction

Mar 15 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2042 conventional Gilt

Mar 15 10:50 France OATi auction

Mar 15 16:00 US Announces auction of 10Y TIPS on Mar 22

WEEKLY

• This Week in Petroleum
  Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
• Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
  Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
• Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
• Heating Oil & Propane Update (October-March)
  Heating Oil, Propane Residential and Wholesale Price Data
  Release Schedule: Wednesday at 1:00 p.m. EST
• Weekly Coal Production
  Release Schedule: Thursday by 5:00 p.m. EST
• Weekly NYMEX Coal Futures
  Release Schedule: Monday by 5:00 p.m. EST
• Coal News & Markets
  Release Schedule: Monday by 5:00 p.m. EST
• Natural Gas Weekly Update
  Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
• Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
  Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Originally posted here