USDCHF: The risk for USDCHF continues to point lower as it looks to return to the 0.9091 level where a decisive violation will set the stage for a run at the 0.9063/75 level, its Nov 30’2011 low.50 Fib Ret (0.8558-0.9591 rally). This is coming on the back of a loss of upside momentum at the 0.9299 level the past week, opening the door for further bear threats. Further down, support lies at its psycho level at 0.9000. We may see a breather here due to the psychological nature of this support level but if taken out, expect more declines to build up towards the 0.8890 level, its Nov 03’2011 low. Alternatively, on any recovery, the pair will aim at the 0.9299 level, its Feb 16’2012 high followed by the 0.9374 level, its Jan 23’2012 high and possibly further higher towards the 0.9504 level, its Jan 13’2012 low. We expect a respite to occur here and turn the pair back lower but if that fails, further declines could target its Jan 09’2012 high at 0.9591. On the whole, USDCHF remains biased to the downside on further weakness nearer term.
