Economic Events: (GMT)
Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could effect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements–including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.
These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.
06:30 EUR French GDP (QoQ) -0.2% 0.3%
07:00 EUR German GDP (QoQ) -0.3% 0.5%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator of economic health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP show the growth rate of the economy as a whole.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
09:30 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus 1.8% 1.9%
09:30 GBP Claimant Count Change 3.2K 1.2K
The Average Earnings Index measures change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. The Average Earnings figure gives us a good indication of personal income growth during the given month.
Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the U.K. during the reported month. A rising trend indicates weakness in the labor market, which has a trickle-down effect on consumer spending and economic growth.
10:00 EUR GDP (QoQ) -0.4% 0.1%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator of economic health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP show the growth rate of the economy as a whole.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
10:30 GBP BoE Inflation Report
The Bank of England (BOE) Inflation Report sets out the detailed economic analysis and inflation projections upon which the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee bases its interest rate decisions and presents an assessment of the prospects for U.K. inflation over the following two years. The report is released quarterly.
10:30 GBP BoE Gov King Speaks
Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mervyn King (July 2003 – June 2013) is to speak. As head of the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which controls short term interest rates, King has more influence over sterling’s value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements for clues regarding future monetary policy.
His comments may spark a short-term positive or negative trend.
13:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 14.2 13.5
The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state.
14:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 62.3B 59.8B
Treasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions measures the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreign investors. Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation’s securities.
14:15 USD Industrial Production (MoM) 0.7% 0.4%
Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
17:15 USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member (2008 and 2011) Richard Fisher is to speak. FOMC members are responsible for setting the benchmark interest rate and their speeches are closely watched for indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
19:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee’s policy-setting meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes offer detailed insights regarding the FOMC’s stance on monetary policy, so currency traders carefully examine them for clues regarding the outcome of future interest rate decisions
Gold Fundamental Analysis February 15, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold is trading at 1717.70 scoring a third losing session in a row, as pressure from a rally in the U.S. dollar outweighed support from weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales and uncertainty over whether Greece will get a second bailout. Gold fell $7.20, or 0.4%, to settle at $1,717.70 an ounce It traded between a high of $1,729.90 and a low of $1,713.80. Futures prices have now tallied a three-session loss of more than $23 an ounce. Watch for a move up in early trading as it has just been annouced that the EU meeting to discuss the Greek agreement has been cancalled as the EU found that Greece had not satisfied all the financial demands and that their current offer did not cover about 1/2 a billion euros.
It looks like a default is imminent. This uncertainty will surely push gold to higher numbers Wednesday.
Tuesday Economic Reports actual v. forecast
|
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-16% |
-18% |
-16% |
|
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence |
4 |
3 |
|
|
JPY |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.10% |
0.10% |
0.10% |
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
3.8% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
|
JPY |
BoJ Press Conference |
|||
|
EUR |
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
HUF |
Hungarian CPI (YoY) |
5.5% |
5.0% |
4.1% |
|
GBP |
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
2.7% |
3.0% |
|
GBP |
CPI (YoY) |
3.6% |
3.6% |
4.2% |
|
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
5.4 |
-11.6 |
-21.6 |
|
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.1% |
-1.2% |
0.0% |
|
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-8.1 |
-21.1 |
-32.5 |
|
GBP |
BOE Inflation Letter |
|||
|
BRL |
Brazilian Retail Sales (YoY) |
6.7% |
7.6% |
6.7% |
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.7% |
0.6% |
-0.5% |
|
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.8% |
0.0% |
Originally posted here
