By FX Empire.com
Economic Events: (GMT)
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Feb. 06 |
Ivey PMI |
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NZD |
Unemployment Rate |
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Feb. 07 |
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision |
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AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
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Feb. 08 |
USD |
FOMC Meeting Minutes |
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Feb. 09 |
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
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EUR |
Interest Rate Decision |
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USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
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EUR |
ECB Press Conference |
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Feb. 10 |
CNY |
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
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CAD |
Trade Balance |
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USD |
Trade Balance |
USD/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 6-10, 2012, Forecast
Historical
Highest: 1.1664 CHF on 07 Jun 2010.
Average: 0.9699 CHF over this period.
Lowest: 0.7224 CHF on 09 Aug 2011.
Rules:
USD/CHF: The pair tends to break to an all-time low, then range back to the previous low. The ranges are very distinct. A break to the upside will likely meet another previous low. Pair are reliable.
Characteristics
Average broker spread: 4-5 pips
Daily range average: 120-135 pips
Best time to trade: Euro Session (0700 GMT – 1700 GMT)
Factors affecting the USD/CHF rate:
- Global stability and global recovery will send USD/CHF higher
- USD/CHF rallies on geopolitical instability
Trading the USD/CHF
Trading Experience: Moderate and Advanced currency traders
Trading Style: Day trading and Swing trades
How to trade?
1) Applying Technical Analysis Analyzing Fundamental News from the CHF and US zone to make USD/CHF trading decisions.
2) Since the USD/CHF pair tends to be negatively correlated to the EUR/USD, it is always a good idea to compare both EUR/USD and USD/CHF charts in order to predict future moves, if EUR/USD breaks above an important resistance level and USD/CHF didn’t break support level yet, the USD/CHF is very likely to break below support level. This also illustrates how EUR/USD tends to lead the move ahead of USD/CHF.
Analysis and Recommendations:
USD/CHFclosed the week at .9181
The Swiss National Bank stated that the Swiss Central bank will do its utmost to defend the euro/Swiss franc lower, at 1.20 exchange rates above the decision not to will change. The Swissie was down on poor economic news while the USD soared earlier on Friday on exception economic data, after initial market reaction, the greenback settled down when investors realized that this might mean little or no Fed intervention.
Official data showed on Thursday that the trade balance narrowed more-than-expected in December to CHF2.07 billion from CHF2.95 billion the previous month.
The data came after a report showing that Swiss retail sales rose far less-than-expected in December, adding 0.6% after a 1.8% rise the previous month and disappointing expectation for a 1.6% increase.
Manufacturing activity in Switzerland unexpectedly deteriorated in January, contracting for the fourth consecutive month.
Strength:
1) US- Jan Payroll gains show big upside surprise of 243k, about 100k more than expected, unemployment rate falls to 8.3%
2) US- ISM services index rises to best since Feb ’11
3) US-ISM manufacturing up 1 pt but touch less than expected
4) US -Jan vehicle sales at 14.1mm is best since clunker month in Aug ’09 and the most since May ’08 before that
5) US – savings rate rises to 4% from 3.5%
6) US -Initial Jobless Claims fall 12k
7) Germany -unemployed fall again, rate at 6.7%
8 ) UK- manufacturing and services PMI figures both rise
9) Eurozone- manufacturing and services PMI in line with initial
10) Portuguese bond yields fall from highs, Italian yields lower too with Spain flat
11)China – manufacturing PMI stays above 50, Taiwan and South Korea rise but remain below 50
12) India – manufacturing and services PMI both jump
Weakness:
1) US- Jan Consumer Confidence falls almost 4 pts to 61.1, well below expectations of 68 as labor market answers soften and those that plan to buy a home falls to lowest since Aug and those that plan to buy a car down at lowest since Oct ’10
2) US -CS home price index falls to lowest since Feb ’03
3) US -MBA said refi’s fell 3.6% and purchase apps were down 1.7%
4) Canada – Jan jobs report disappoints
5) China – PMI services index falls to 52.9 from 56, the 2nd lowest since Feb ’11
6) Taiwan -economy in a recession after Q4 contraction q/o/q
7) Greek- debt discussions for another week are hours away from wrapping up, becoming a nightmare
8 ) Eurozone -Amount of LTRO funds from ECB continue to be redeposit with the ECB
Feb 07 09:00 Netherlands Eur 5.0bn Jul 2022 DSL
Feb 07 10:10 Greece 6M T-bill auction
Feb 07 10.30 UK Auctions 1.75% 2017 conventional Gilt
Feb 07 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 16
Feb 07 18:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes
Feb 08 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 08 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl
Feb 08 10:30 Swiss Bond auction
Feb 08 16:30 Italy Details BOT auction on Feb 13
Feb 08 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes
Feb 09 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 09 15:30 Sweden Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23
Feb 09 16:00 US Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16
Feb 09 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14
Feb 09 18:00 Italy Auctions 30Y Bonds
Feb 10 11:00 Belgium OLO auction
Originally posted here
