Economic Events: (GMT)
07:00 GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM) -0.1% -0.2%
The Nationwide Housing Price Index (HPI) measures the change in the selling price of homes with mortgages backed by Nationwide. It is the U.K.’s second earliest report on housing inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
08:15 CHF Retail Sales (YoY) 1.6% 1.8%
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.
08:30 CHF SVME PMI 51.8 50.7
The Schweizerischer Verband f?r Materialwirtschaft und Einkauf (SVME) Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.
08:50 EUR French Manufacturing PMI 48.5 48.5
08:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI 50.9 50.9
09:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI 48.7 48.7
09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 50.1 49.6
The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR or GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR or GBP.
10:00 EUR CPI (YoY) 2.7% 2.7%
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
13:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 190K 325K
The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Index 54.5 53.9
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rates the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
The data is compiled from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
On the index, a level above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis Feb. 1 , 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CHF trading at 0.9205
In early trading the dollar weakened against the Swissie, 0.9124. Until continued worries about the EU crisis again worried investors. Greece seems to be forgotten, maybe no news is good news. As Portugal steps forward, investors remained wary as the yield on Portugal’s 10-year government bonds stayed close to Monday’s euro-era highs at 16%, fuelling concerns that Lisbon may need a debt restructuring deal similar to Greece’s.
Even though the EU summit produced some good results, the fact that Greece was not resolved is hanging in everyones mind.
Reports in the US showed that manufacturing activity in the Chicago area declined unexpectedly in January. The Chicago PMI declined to a seasonally adjusted 60.2, from a reading of 62.5 in December. Although this report only covers a small area of the US it is thought to be a key view of US manufacturing. Markets had forecast the PMI to rise to 63.0 in January.
European session, just shy of its 8-week low struck yesterday at 0.9116. However, USD/CHF managed to bounce up, climbing back above 0.9205 exhibiting strenght.
In Europe today economic data was fairly weak and disappointing, with the only bright spot was an improvement in German unemployment dropping unexpectedly.
German Unemployment Change -34K; better than expected.
SNB currency reserves at CHF 257.5 bln for the end of December.
French Consumer Spending (Dec) -0.7%; worse than expected.
French Producer Prices (Dec) -0.1%, as expected.
Barclays raises their 6 month AUD/USD forecast from 1.0100 to 1.0500.
Swiss UBS consumption indicator (Dec) 0.92 vs 0.81 prior reading.
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Feb 01 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Feb 01 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund
Feb 01 10:30 Portugal Eur 0.75-1.0bn 3M T-bill
Feb 01 10.30 UK Auctions 5.0% 2025 conventional Gilt
Feb 01 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond auction on Feb 08
Feb 01 16:00 US
Announces details of 3Y Notes on Feb 07, 10Y Notes on Feb
08 & 30Y Bonds on Feb 09
Feb 02 09:50 France OAT Auction
Feb 02 10.30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2029
Originally posted here
