Economic Events: (GMT)
00:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -32 -33
Gfk Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A reading above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
07:00 CHF Consumption Indicator 0.81
The UBS Consumption Indicator is a leading indicator of private consumption trends. This indicator is a combined reading of five indicators, including consumer confidence, consumer spending, tourism, new car sales, and retail activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF. Due to the current situation of the Swissie this report will be important this week.
07:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) 0.8% -1.0%
German Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles and gas stations. It is the primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
07:45 EUR French Consumer Spending (MoM) 0.3% -0.1%
07:45 EUR French PPI (MoM) 0.1% 0.4%
French Consumer Spending measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods expenditures by consumers. Consumer spending accounts for the majority of economic activity.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate 6.8% 6.8%
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change -7K -22K
The German unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the reported month.
German Unemployment Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.
09:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 8.7% 8.6%
The Italian unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.This data tends to have a muted impact since there are several earlier indicators related to the euro zone labor market.
09:00 EUR Italian PPI (MoM) 0.0% 0.1%
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Tenta EUR Spanish Business Confidence -21 -20
Business Confidence rates the current level of business conditions. It helps to analyze the economic situation in the short term. A rising trend indicates an increase in business investment which may lead to higher levels of output.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) 0.3% -0.6%
09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals 53K 53K
09:30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals 1.2B 1.0B
M4 Money Supply measures the change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks. An increasing supply of money leads to additional spending, which in turn leads to inflation.
Mortgage Approvals measures the number of new mortgages approved for home purchases during the previous month by the Bank of England. The data tends to have a limited impact because about 60% of all mortgages are covered by the BBA Mortgage Approvals data released a few days earlier.
Net lending to individuals measures the change in the total value of new credit extended to consumers. It is closely correlated with consumer spending and confidence.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate 10.4% 10.3%
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. The data tends to have a muted impact as there are several earlier indicators related to labor conditions in the euro zone.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.
13:30 USD Employment Cost Index (QoQ) 0.4% 0.3%
The Employment Cost Index measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for civilian labor.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
14:45 USD Chicago PMI 63.0 62.5
15:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 68.2 64.5
Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis Jan. 31, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD is currently
The USD has been surging all day in response to euroworries about Greece and the lack of progress and mixed signals coming from the EU Summit. Last night the markets were assured in a joint statement that a deal was done and would be presented today to the EU leadership, when at this time, there does not seem to be a completed agreement and the negotiation teams are still meeting in Athens, as the EU Summit convenes.
Overlooking weak economic data from the US the end of last week the dollar has climbed today against all its european counterparts.
In the UK, the latest monthly survey from the property analytics firm Hometrack, published today, reveals that the number of new buyers registering with estate agents fell 10.5 per cent in January, after falls of 2.2 per cent and 6.3 per cent in the previous two months.
The length of time it takes for a property to sell is also increasing, from 9.9 weeks in November to 10.2 weeks in January. Meanwhile the number of sales agreed, which climbed 4.6 per cent in November, has fallen 14.3 per cent in the past month.
Hometrack reports that prices remained static. The survey indicates that there has now been no increase in house prices for 18 month
Economists are looking to some key lending and house price figures due this week to give a further indication of the faltering health of the property market. The Bank of England is expected to report tomorrow that mortgage approvals for house purchases rose to a two-year high of 54,000 in December from 52,854 in November. However, mortgage approvals remain extremely low compared to long-term norms. A level of 70,000-80,000 has in the past been considered consistent with stable house prices.
Once again, it is all about Greece and Portugal keeps coming to the forefront, EU leaders are hoping to resolve Greece before Portugal explodes.
There are numerous economic reports due in the US and the UK that will drive the currency. Any weakness in the UK reports the dollar will take advantage and push the pound farther down.
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Jan 31 10:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills
Jan 31 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 07
Feb 01 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Feb 01 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund
Feb 01 10:30 Portugal Eur 0.75-1.0bn 3M T-bill
Feb 01 10.30 UK Auctions 5.0% 2025 conventional Gilt
Feb 01 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond auction on Feb 08
Feb 01 16:00 US
Announces details of 3Y Notes on Feb 07, 10Y Notes on Feb
08 & 30Y Bonds on Feb 09
Feb 02 09:50 France OAT Auction
Feb 02 10.30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2029
Originally posted here
