By FX Empire.com
Economic Events: (GMT)
07:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM)
German Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles and gas stations. It is the primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Normally this report is carries little significance, but as most the EU recovery depends on Germany, it is of great importance.
09:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
The Italian unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.This data tends to have a muted impact since there are several earlier indicators related to the euro zone labor market. With Italy being the focus of the EU, its economic survival and recovery under strict austerity programs is of great importance. Unemployment is expected to continue to rise, but if hopefully, it will remain within forecast or do better. This will also help with Italian bond sales, if there is any sign of recovery.
Tent. EUR German CPI (MoM)
It is important that Germany can show CORE improvements, to be the locomotive to help pull europe out of the abyss. The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM)
13:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM)
The Core Personal Consumption spending (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item. It measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
Personal Spending measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all spending by consumers. Consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. However, this report tends to have a mild impact, as government data on retail sales is released about two weeks earlier.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis Jan. 30, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD is currently at 1.5642 -0.0048 (-0.30%)
The pound outpaced the USD today, moving up.
In London, investors are still worried about the final outcome in Greece and the growing problems in Portugal, but at the own front door, the rise in unemployment, the lack of jobs and the lack of a positive improvement since the impostion of austerity measures is worry the investors as well as the Brits.
Some are concerned the BOE could expand the Asset purchase program in the UK which is similar to the US QE. The Q4 GBP drop to -0.2% vs. -0.1% forecast added to this speculation.
Across the Atlantic, where things are supposed to be improving, data in the US this week was somewhat dissappointing with a silver lining. The jobs report and the housing reports were negatives, but the durable goods reports exceeded forecasts, which can mean a growth in manufacturing, which could spur jobs and increased housing.
The dollar was depressed for a simple singular reason, the FOMC promise to maintain low rates through 2014. This is making the USD less attractive to global investors.
The sterling should hold tight and will move in reaction to the USD.
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Jan 30 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Jan 30 10:10 Norway Nok 4.0bn 5.0% May 2015 bond
Jan 30 11:00 Belgium OLO Auction
Jan 30 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on Feb 06
Jan 31 10:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills
Jan 31 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 07
Feb 01 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Feb 01 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund
Feb 01 10:30 Portugal Eur 0.75-1.0bn 3M T-bill
Feb 01 10.30 UK Auctions 5.0% 2025 conventional Gilt
Feb 01 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond auction on Feb 08
Feb 01 16:00 US
Announces details of 3Y Notes on Feb 07, 10Y Notes on Feb
08 & 30Y Bonds on Feb 09
Feb 02 09:50 France OAT Auction
Feb 02 10.30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2029
Originally posted here
