Stock Price Momentum Turned Down

Gold, Silver, and Copper confirmed a bullish trends by rising above highs of the previous 7 or more weeks.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) confirmed a downside correction by falling below the lows of the previous 7 weeks.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,318.43) fell 0.57% on Thursday on more active trading volume. SPX opened higher but eroded steadily after the first half hour. SPX surrendered more than 2/3 of its gain for the week.

Stock price momentum turned down. RSI (14) based on the SPX fell below the lows of the previous 5 trading days and broke down below a 5-week uptrend line.

VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 5 months, suggesting a trend toward bullish complacency.

There were 48% Bulls and 19% Bears, according to the AAII weekly survey reported on 1/26/11. That was an uptick in mood from the previous week’s reading, and it was nearly 1.3 standard deviations more optimistic than the 20-year average.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1349.31, Fibonacci 87.5% projection 10/11 range
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1333.47, high of 1/26/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1306.06, low of 1/24/2012
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.19, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) fell below the lows of the previous 10 weeks on 1/23/11 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 1/19/12. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend for the longer term. Support 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 118.53, 121.64, 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/25/12. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend. Support 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 105.92, 106.04, and 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/18/12 but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/19/12 but remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) confirmed a downside correction. UUP fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 1/26/12 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 1/23/11. UUP remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.97, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.46, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/23/12. DBA remains bearishly below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) has been correcting and consolidating over the past 15 trading days. USO broke out above the highs of the previous 7 months on 1/4/12, thereby confirming a major uptrend. Support 37.49, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.96, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) confirmed a bullish trend. GLD rose above the highs of the previous 7 weeks on 1/26/12 and broke out above a 4-month downtrend line on 1/25/12. GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/23/12. GLD remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 160.29, 159.68, 158.01, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 170.80, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 3 years on 1/24/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. GDX/GLD remains bearishly below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) confirmed a bullish short-term trend. SLV rose above the highs of the previous 10 weeks on 1/26/12 and rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12. SLV remains bearishly below its falling 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 30.67, 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 32.87, 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12 but remains bearishly below its falling 200-day SMA. SLV/GLD fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/28/11, confirming a long-term bearish trend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) rose above the highs of the previous 4 months on 1/26/12 and rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/10/12. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
18.87% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
18.79% , JCP , JC PENNEY
22.06% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
5.61% , DLX , DELUXE
10.88% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
5.41% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
5.05% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
1.04% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
5.23% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
2.15% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
2.14% , CL , COLGATE
3.22% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
1.40% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
4.40% , BLL , BALL
1.74% , TER , TERADYNE
2.05% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
1.32% , AN , AUTONATION
2.07% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
2.05% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
1.54% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
1.51% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
0.97% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
1.93% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
0.73% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
2.94% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
1.86% , CIEN.O , CIENA
0.31% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
1.19% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
1.73% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
2.35% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
0.56% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
2.67% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
0.91% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-14.64% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-11.37% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-1.16% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-2.98% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-3.88% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-2.67% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
-3.19% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-3.79% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
-5.37% , ZION , ZIONS
-4.03% , MET , METLIFE
-1.81% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
-5.70% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
-2.52% , T , AT&T Corp., T
-2.54% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
-3.81% , WFC , WELLS FARGO
-2.72% , HUM , HUMANA
-0.48% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-2.02% , NBR , NABORS
-3.52% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
-1.23% , ETN , EATON
-5.05% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-0.99% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
-2.83% , USB , US BANCORP
-3.94% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-3.04% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
-2.91% , MBI , MBIA
-2.00% , VFC , VF
-1.52% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-0.26% , PPH , Pharmaceutical H, PPH
-5.18% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-1.65% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
-2.65% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
-3.34% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.99% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.54% Austria Index, EWO
1.33% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.04% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.96% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.78% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.75% Germany Index, EWG
0.70% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.67% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.65% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.58% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.58% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.56% Russia MV, RSX
0.54% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.53% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.52% Belgium Index, EWK
0.51% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.50% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.49% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.48% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.48% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.46% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.44% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.40% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.39% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.34% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.32% Spain Index, EWP
0.32% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.30% South Africa Index, EZA
0.30% Australia Index, EWA
0.30% European VIPERs, VGK
0.29% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.26% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.25% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.25% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.25% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.24% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.24% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.24% France Index, EWQ
0.23% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.21% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.20% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.19% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.15% Italy Index, EWI
0.15% Sweden Index, EWD
0.15% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.13% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.11% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.10% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.05% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.04% EAFE Index, EFA
0.03% Mexico Index, EWW
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.00% Global 100, IOO
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.03% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.06% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.09% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.10% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.11% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.12% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.14% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.15% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.15% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.15% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.16% India PS, PIN
-0.16% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.17% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.17% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.17% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.19% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.19% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.20% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.21% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.21% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.22% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.23% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.24% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.27% Dividend International, PID
-0.27% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.31% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.32% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.35% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.37% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.37% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.38% Water Resources, PHO
-0.38% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.39% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.40% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.40% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.40% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.42% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.42% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.44% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.45% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.46% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.50% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.51% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.51% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.51% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.52% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.52% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.52% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.55% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.56% Canada Index, EWC
-0.57% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.58% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.58% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.61% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.61% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.62% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.62% Energy Global, IXC
-0.63% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.63% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.66% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.66% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.66% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.66% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.67% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.69% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.70% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.70% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.71% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.76% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.76% Networking, IGN
-0.83% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.85% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.92% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.93% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.96% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.02% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.05% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.09% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.19% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.30% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.36% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.41% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.58% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.59% Energy VIPERs, VDE