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Daily State of the Markets Good Morning. Anyone who takes the study of the stock market seriously undoubtedly spends at least some of their time with sentiment indicators. For example, sentiment models and indicators account for 15% of our daily risk management work and 10% of our weekly work. So, while market sentiment is obviously not nearly as important as trend, momentum, breadth, or fundamental indicators, it is something to pay attention to – especially when the mood of the market reaches an extreme. It is said that the public is always wrong at market turns and that it often pays to go the opposite of what the public is doing. The thinking here is that by the time the investing public is really feeling good (or bad) about the stock market, the majority of the move has already occurred. As such, there are those that love to invest in a “contrary” manner to whatever the prevailing sentiment is at the time. However this is really a misnomer as it is important to recognize that the public is always “right” during the middle of trends. It is only at important turns that the majority are left behind fighting the last war. The reason it pays to look at sentiment – especially when extremes are reached – is very simple. By the time everyone you know can tell you why something is happening in the stock market, they’ve likely already adjusted their portfolio to reflect their view. In other words, once “the crowd” becomes bullish on stocks it likely means that all the money that wants to be invested has already been invested. As such, the market becomes susceptible to a swift decline once a “trigger” comes along – because the money available to go into stocks has already been spent. I’d like to make two points on the topic of investor sentiment this morning. The first is that the sentiment indicators are a little nutty right now. After a rally that has lasted 25 days (five weeks), one might expect to see the sentiment indicators starting to show too much optimism (which is an indication that the buying power may be close to being used up). And while I have certainly witnessed some exceptional giddiness on the part of the mutual fund types on CNBC lately, my sentiment indicators are only neutral. Of the five sentiment models we use in our daily risk management model, two currently carry maximum negative readings, two are neutral, and one is actually positive. This, after a 25-day run for the roses with only two modestly bad days. Trust me when I say this is a little strange because usually, all five sentiment models would be sporting minus signs right about now. Perhaps this is due to the fact that short-term and long-term sentiment is diametrically opposed at the present time. Clearly there is a little too much happiness seen in the current joyride to the upside. As such, the shorter-term sentiment indicators are flashing warning signs. However, from a longer-term perspective, the negativity toward the macro view is so thick you can cut it with a knife. For example, do you know anyone, anywhere that thinks the economies of the U.S. and Europe are going to be good any time soon? Do you know anyone that is upbeat about the jobs market or housing or the fate of the Euro? Yep, that’s right; the global macro view is pretty ugly right about now. My first primary point this fine Friday morning is that the sentiment indicators are a bit out of whack at the present time and it might be a good idea to view them accordingly. The second issue I’d like to address this morning on the always challenging issue of investor sentiment is that there just might be too many eyeballs on the subject. Think about it; if everyone in the business is watching the same (or at least similar) sentiment indicators, and everyone is looking for those extreme levels, do the indicators have as much value as they did when fewer people were paying attention? In other words, isn’t it tough to go contrary to the crowd when the crowd itself is looking to be contrary? I’m just saying… Turning to this morning… Stocks in the U.S. are pointing to a modestly lower open after the Q4 GDP report came in below expectations. On the Economic front… The government’s advance report on the nation’s fourth quarter GDP shows the economy grew at a rate of +2.8% during the October-December period, which was below the consensus expectations for an increase of +3.1%. Thought for the day… Best of luck on this Friday and be sure to enjoy the weekend! Pre-Game Indicators Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell…
Positions in stocks mentioned: None For more of Mr. Moenning’s thoughts and research, visit StateoftheMarkets.com The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning’s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of StateoftheMarkets.com and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. One should always consult an investment professional before making any investment. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided. The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed. The information contained in this report is provided by Ridge Publishing Co. Inc. (Ridge). One of the principals of Ridge, Mr. David Moenning, is also President and majority shareholder of Heritage Capital Management, Inc. (HCM) a Chicago-based money management firm. HCM is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Ridge is a publisher and has not registered as an investment adviser. Neither HCM nor Ridge is registered as a broker-dealer. Employees and affiliates of HCM and Ridge may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice. Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results. |
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