Economic Events: (GMT)
Close of the Asian Markets
13:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.9% 0.3%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 2.0% 3.7%
Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of ordering trends. A higher reading indicates increased manufacturing activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 370K 352K
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3432K
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
15:00 USD New Home Sales 320K 315K
New Home Sales measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month. This report tends to have more impact when it’s released ahead of Existing Home Sales because the reports are tightly correlated.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
23:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) -0.3% -0.3%
The Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers in Tokyo, excluding fresh food.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.
23:50 JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the Bank of Japan’s policy setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates.
23:50 JPY Retail Sales (YoY) 2.0% -2.2%
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis Jan. 26, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation:
USD/JPY was trading 77.88.
The dollar rose as high as 77.98 yen during the session, compared with ?77.74 late Tuesday and ?77.02
Reports released earlier in the day showed Japan recorded an annual trade deficit in 2011, its first since 1980. The point at which Japan’s savings turn around in terms of momentum has long been seen as the time to sell the Japanese yen.
The BoJ also reported negative effects in the Japanese economy and stated that it would be a longer turn around cutting growth rates. The yen will continue to fall against the USD.
Markets in Hong Kong, Taipei and Shanghai, among others, remained closed for the Lunar New Year holidays.
Upcoming Govt Bond Sales Dates
Jan 26 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei
Jan 26 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Jan 27 10:10 Italy BOT auction
Originally posted here
