Economic Events: (GMT)
03:00 EUR French Manufacturing PMI 49.3 48.9
03:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI 49.1 48.4
04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI 47.4 46.9
The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
05:00 EUR Industrial New Orders (MoM) -2.2% 1.8%
Industrial New Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of production.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
In the US tomorrow the only economic events are T-Bill Auctions, which do not effect the USD
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis Jan. 24, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD is currently trading 1.3040, in a surprised show of strenght today, the euro surged past the all important 1.30 level to reach a high of 1.3046 and has been able to sustain the 1.30 level. A boost in consumer confidence report filed today, a leading indicator that predicts consumer spending, and plays a major role in overall economic activity. Again, there have been promises of deal with creditors in Greece, but at this writing it is not clear if there is a deal or isn’t a deal, but the EU leadership seems to think that a deal is doable, has pushed the euro.
Aided by a succesful German bond sale, the euro is showing confidence against the USD.
I am not sure if the euro can sustain this pace. A sell position might be a smart move, selling on jumps up, as once this deal is done, the EU has to deal with Spain and Italy, which will only compound european pressures.
Upcoming Govt Bond Sales Dates
Jan 23 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on Jan 30
Jan 24 09:30 Netherlands Eur 1.5-2.5bn Jan 2013 & Jan 2042 DSL
Jan 24 09:30 Spain Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills
Jan 24 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Jan 26 & BOT on Jan 27 &
Jan 24 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Jan 25 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Jan 25 10:30 Germany Eur 3.0bn 3.25% Jul 2042 Bund
Jan 25 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Jan 30
Jan 25 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Jan 26 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei
Jan 26 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Jan 27 10:10 Italy BOT auction
Originally posted here
