Economic Event
| Actual | Cons. | Previous | Vol. | |||
| Jan 15 | ||||||
| 23:30 | AustraliaTD Securities Inflation (MoM) (Dec) | -0.1% | 2 | |||
| 23:30 | AustraliaTD Securities Inflation (YoY) (Dec) | 2.1% | 2 | |||
| Jan 16 | ||||||
| 00:30 | AustraliaANZ Job Advertisements (Dec) | 0% | 2 | |||
| 00:30 | AustraliaHome Loans (Nov) | 1.1% | 0.7% | 2 | ||
| 00:30 | AustraliaInvestment Lending for Homes (Nov) | -5.5% | 1 | |||
| Jan 17 | ||||||
| 23:30 | AustraliaWestpac Leading Index (MoM) (Nov) | 0.1% | 1 | |||
| Jan 18 | ||||||
| 00:30 | AustraliaNew Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Dec) | 2.3% | -0.7% | 1 | ||
| 00:30 | AustraliaNew Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (Dec) | 2.9% | 1 | |||
| Jan 19 | ||||||
| 00:00 | AustraliaConsumer Inflation Expectation (Jan) | 2.4% | 2 | |||
| 00:30 | AustraliaEmployment Change s.a. (Dec) | 10.3K | -6.3K | 3 | ||
| 00:30 | AustraliaRBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Dec) | 401M | 1 | |||
| 00:30 | AustraliaUnemployment Rate s.a. (Dec) | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3 | ||
| Jan 20 | ||||||
| 00:30 | AustraliaExport Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) | 4% | 1 | |||
| 00:30 | AustraliaImport Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) | 0.6% | 0.0% | 1 | ||
Historical
Highest: 1.1033 USD on 27 Jul 2011.
Average: 0.9704 USD over this period.
Lowest: 0.8129 USD on 07 Jun 2010.
Rule:
The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
Data out of China this week showed December inflation eased to 4.1% y/y from November’s 4.2%, 0.1ppt above market expectations.
PPI inflation also declined to a 25 month low of 1.7% y/y. Easing inflation concerns and a slowing in domestic demand could see a cut to the RRR before Chinese New Year. The Euro rallied almost 1% as the market was reassured by statements from ECB president Draghi that liquidity operations had been successful, providing “a substantial contribution to improving the funding situation of banks, thereby supporting financing conditions and confidence”. To turn around and plunge after statements from a Fitch Ratings Agency representative and then concluded the week with the S&P downgrades
Also adding to sentiment were comments that some recent survey indicators show tentative signs of stabilization of economic activity at low levels. Markets however, remain mindful of possible further bad news in the short term. A good deal of data is to be released in Australia this week, it should be a hectic day and week.
The Australian markets will react to the euro falling late Friday and to several economic reports due from China during early trading.
The ANZ should climb against the euro, but will most likely hold against the USD.
Originally posted here
