Crude oil prices gained last week, as tension grew between Iran and the west overshadowed the undergoing concerns in the euro area, and accordingly, that tension provided crude oil with strong bullish momentum.
Data from the United States were generally better than estimates, which further supported confidence over the outlook of the world’s largest economy, and provided crude oil prices with bullish momentum as well.
This week, the main focus will be on the BoE rate decisions, trade, manufacturing and inflation data from the U.K. while the U.S. will release retail, trade and confidence, as well as other data.
Traders will continue to focus their attention on Europe this coming week, where the European Central Bank is expected to keep its rates unchanged, in order to ease tensions in markets and help support confidence amid the worsening debt crisis in the euro zone region.
Moreover, several euro zone nations are preparing for bond auctions, where all eyes will be focused on the yields and demand on those bonds, noting that the euro area region has more than 157 billion of debt maturing in the first quarter half of 2012.
Our overall outlook for crude oil prices is bearish, as the outlook for global growth is worsening due to mounting concerns from Europe and the fact that major economies around the globe are still weak, and that should put negative pressure on crude oil prices.
Highlights for this week that will probably affect Crude Oil direction are:
Monday January 9:
At 20:00 GMT the United States will provide markets with the consumer credit figure for November, which could have narrowed to $7.000 billion from $7.645 billion.
Auctions:
Slovakiawill auction bonds at 10:00 GMT, whileGermanywill auction bonds at 10:15 GMT and finallyFrancewill sell bonds at 14:00 GMT.
Tuesday January 10:
TheUnited Stateswill join the session at 15:00 GMT with the wholesale inventories index for November, which could have expanded by 0.5% from the previous expansion of 1.6%.
Auctions:
Netherlandswill sell bonds at 09:00 GMT.
Austria,MaltaandGreecewill auction bonds at 10:00 GMT.
Sloveniawill auction bonds at 12:00 GMT.
Wednesday January 11:
At 15:30 GMT, the EIA report for crude oil inventories will be released for the week ending January 06, where last week crude oil inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels.
The Federal Reserve will provide markets with the Beige Book at 19:00 GMT.
Auctions:
Germanywill sell bonds at 10:15 GMT.
Thursday January 12:
The United States will join the session at 13:30 GMT with the retail sales index for December, where the advanced index is expected to expand in a steady pace by 0.2%, while the retail sales index less autos is projected to expand by 0.3% from 0.2%.
The United States will also release the initial jobless claims (Jan 7), where the prior reading was 372 thousand claims.
At 15:00 GMT theUnited Stateswill provide markets with the business inventories index for November, which could have grown by 0.4% from 0.8%.
At 19:00 GMT theUnited Stateswill end the session with the monthly budget statement, which is expected at -$79.0 billion.
Auctions:
Spainwill auction bonds at 09:30 GMT, whileItalywill auction bonds at 10:00 GMT
Friday January 13:
The United States will join the session at 13:30 GMT with the import price monthly index for December, which is expected to drop by 0.1% from the previous expansion of 0.7%.
TheUnited Stateswill also provide the trade balance figures for November, where the trade deficit is expected to widen to $44.9 billion from $43.5 billion.
Auctions:
Italywill auction bonds at 10:00 GMT.
Originally posted here
