What sort of Jobs Report are you expecting on Friday. Normally we get our first big clue today, but due to the holiday, the ADP report is delayed until tomorrow. For November, the ADP report showed a total of 206,000 private sector jobs created. The BLS report was not quite as strong, showing a total of 140,000 jobs created on the private side, and after 20,000 government layoffs, total job creation of 120,000.

For the ADP report tomorrow the consensus is looking for 180,000 private sector jobs, down fairly sharply from what the report showed in November, but well over the BLS numbers. The Consensus for the Friday official BLS report is for private sector job growth to accelerate to 170,000 with the public sector again expected to drop 20,000 employees thus bringing the total to 150,000. The unemployment rate, which is based on an entirely different survey, but included in the same report as the job creation numbers dropped sharply in November to 8.6% from 9.0%, but that move was exaggerated due to a drop in the Civilian Participation rate. The consensus is looking for the unemployment rate to tick back up to 8.7%.

I expect that the employment numbers are going to come in higher than expected for December on the BLS report. I am looking for 200,000 on the private side, but think the consensus has it about right on the government side, so a total job growth number of 180,000. I suspect the participation rate will tick back up, so the consensus 8.7% unemployment rate looks about right to me.

I am basing my optimism primarily on the sharp drop we have seen in the weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance we have seen over the last month, but the ISM manufacturing employment sub index rising 3.3 points yesterday to 55.1 also supports “taking the over” on the job growth front. I am also expecting that the ADP numbers for November will be revised down slightly, to perhaps 190,000, but that the revisions will be strongly positive on the BLS report, with an increase of about 20,000 for November on the private side to bring the totals to 160,000 private sector jobs created, and 140,000 total jobs added. I also expect some upward revisions to the October job growth numbers.

What are your predictions for this very important report?

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