Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Health Care stock sector ETFs rose above previous price highs, looking back to July 2011. These “Defensive” sectors have been the strongest sectors for many months.
The Dow Theory signaled either an upward Secondary Reaction bounce or Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/23/11, when both Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages closed above their closing price highs of the previous 144 calendar days. This appears to be one of those junctures when interpretation of the Dow Theory could be open to debate. Significantly, these higher highs were NOT confirmed by the broad-based, capitalization-weighted price indexes. And given that Friday 12/23/11 was a low-volume day with many investors taking off for holidays, there may be a some probability of a false signal. Let’s wait for broader confirmation before making any big changes.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,265.33) crossed above its widely-followed 200-day SMA (now at 1259.19) on Friday, 12/23/11. That was the 3rd time SPX crossed above since SPX crossed below on 8/2/11. Historically, most such crossover signals result in unprofitable whipsaws for trend followers. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11, suggesting a persistent Bear trend for the longer term.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 6-months on 12/23/11. The Ratio has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 years on 12/23/11. EFA/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/14/11.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.21% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
0.44% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
1.06% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.62% , IGV , Software, IGV
1.27% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
8.39% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
1.13% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
0.85% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
0.66% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
0.86% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
0.96% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
0.87% , PMR , Retail, PMR
0.80% , PPH , Pharmaceutical H, PPH
5.38% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
0.75% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
2.13% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
0.65% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
0.72% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
1.07% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
0.57% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.76% , VTI , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
2.07% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
2.77% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
1.39% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
0.56% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
0.31% , SWH , Software H, SWH
3.70% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
0.94% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.76% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
0.35% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
2.45% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
1.55% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
1.89% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.44% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-1.00% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.71% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-0.77% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
-2.01% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-0.67% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.17% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-0.24% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-0.74% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
-0.79% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-1.33% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-1.11% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.12% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.33% , SNA , SNAP ON
-0.11% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-0.03% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.04% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
-0.02% , SHV , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.40% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.11% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.06% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.03% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.99% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.97% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.96% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.96% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.95% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.95% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.94% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.92% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.91% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.91% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.90% Energy Global, IXC
0.89% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.88% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.87% European VIPERs, VGK
0.86% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.85% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.84% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.83% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.81% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.80% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.80% South Korea Index, EWY
0.79% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.78% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.78% France Index, EWQ
0.78% Japan Index, EWJ
0.77% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.77% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.77% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.76% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.76% Dividend International, PID
0.75% Energy DJ, IYE
0.75% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.74% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.73% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.71% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.71% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.71% Global 100, IOO
0.70% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.69% Networking, IGN
0.69% EAFE Index, EFA
0.68% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.68% Sweden Index, EWD
0.68% South Africa Index, EZA
0.67% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.67% Belgium Index, EWK
0.66% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.66% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.65% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.65% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.63% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.63% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.61% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.60% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.60% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.60% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.58% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.57% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.57% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.57% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.55% Australia Index, EWA
0.55% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.54% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.53% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.52% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.50% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.49% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.49% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.48% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.47% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.46% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.46% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.46% Canada Index, EWC
0.44% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.44% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.44% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.41% Water Resources, PHO
0.41% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.40% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.39% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.39% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.39% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.38% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.38% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.38% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.37% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.36% Germany Index, EWG
0.36% Singapore Index, EWS
0.35% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.35% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.33% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.32% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.31% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.31% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.30% Spain Index, EWP
0.29% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.28% Austria Index, EWO
0.26% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.22% Mexico Index, EWW
0.22% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.21% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.21% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.17% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.17% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.16% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.14% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.00% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.05% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.05% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.06% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.11% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.12% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.12% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.12% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.14% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.17% Italy Index, EWI
-0.25% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.28% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.31% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.32% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.39% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.41% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.67% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.74% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.74% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.79% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.89% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.11% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.18% India PS, PIN
-1.69% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.74% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.82% Russia MV, RSX
-4.07% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
