U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) stabilized following a minor 4-day pullback within its larger uptrend.

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) stabilized following a minor 2-day price pullback within its larger uptrend.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned down following a minor 4-day bounce within its larger downtrend.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,254.00) finished up 0.83% on Thursday. It was the 3rd consecutive up day, and the largest 3-day move of the month.

SPX appears to be approaching its widely-followed 200-day SMA (now at 1259.38) where it has encountered resistance since October. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11, suggesting a persistent Bear trend for the longer term.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Includes Top Ten ETFs, Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings, charts, support and resistance levels, and much more.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. Following a Secondary Reaction bounce in October, a short-term downtrend was confirmed on 11/25/11 when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of the previous 7-weeks.

A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 63-months on 12/21/11 and has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has been bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 12/14/11. BKF/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 12/19/11. EEM/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 years on 12/21/11. EFA/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/14/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 12/19/11 and has been in a rising trend since 11/4/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) recovered modestly from 10/3/11 to 10/27/11 but has stalled out in more recent weeks. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/11/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 12/14/11 and has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/24/11.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 69.5% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 30.5% Bears as of 12/21/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.

VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 5-months on 12/22/11, hitting 20.34 intraday. That is down from recent peaks of 30.91 on 12/8/11, 37.83 on 11/1/11, 46.88 on 10/4/11, and 48.00 on 8/8/11. This drop indicates a shift away from fear and toward confidence, which, according to Humphrey Bancroft Neill’s Art of Contrary Thinking, may be bearish. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1267.06, high of 12/7/2011
1259.38, 200-day SMA
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) stabilized following a minor 2-day price pullback; this after rising above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 12/19/11. TLT remains in bullish position above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistent Bull trend. Support 115.80, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) stabilized following a minor 2-day price pullback; this after rising above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 12/19/11. IEF remains in bullish position above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistent Bull trend. Support 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been in a downtrend since 2/8/11. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11. JNK/LQD broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11. Absolute price of JNK has been weak since 10/27/11 and remains bearish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a downtrend since peaking on 4/8/11. TIP/IEF remains below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) stabilized following a minor 4-day pullback. UUP rose above the highs of the previous 10 months on 12/14/11, again confirming its preexisting bullish trend. UUP rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/14/11 and rose above its 200-day SMA on 11/9/11. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.97, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.70, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) bounced moderately within its downtrend. Price fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/16/11, again confirming a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) bounced moderately within its downtrend. Price fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks on 12/16/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/14/11. Finally, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.74, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned down following a minor 4-day bounce within its downtrend. Price fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 12/15/11. On 12/12/11, I warned that a break below the low at 165.53 set on 12/6/11 would be bearish. Further weakness appears probable. Support: 151.71, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 162.07, 165.53, 170.80, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) is bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price consolidated losses after falling below the lows of the previous 2 months on 12/15/11. SLV crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/8/11 and crossed below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. Support 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 32.53, 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 13 months on 12/19/11. SLV/GLD remains bearishly below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) bounced moderately within its downtrend. Price fell below the lows of the previous 8 weeks on 12/15/11. JJC remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.78% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
2.65% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
15.70% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
1.42% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
0.77% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
3.13% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.55% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
1.01% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
6.40% , ALTR , ALTERA
11.01% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
1.77% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
0.93% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.48% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
0.87% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
0.56% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
1.29% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
1.72% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.12% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
3.85% , BC , BRUNSWICK
0.94% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
0.92% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.29% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
6.51% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
4.00% , HSP , HOSPIRA
5.94% , C , CITIGROUP
1.76% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
7.28% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
2.53% , SMH , Semiconductor H, SMH
2.60% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
5.79% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
4.59% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
2.86% , SNV , SYNOVUS
1.25% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-21.83% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
-10.09% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
-12.34% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-6.27% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-0.83% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
-0.80% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-2.97% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-0.88% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.71% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
-3.81% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
-1.15% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-0.54% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-0.41% , AVP , AVON
-0.34% , DHR , DANAHER
-0.84% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.21% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-0.45% , DVY , Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.69% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.57% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-0.28% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
-1.35% , VFC , VF
-0.77% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-0.28% , CR , CRANE
-0.62% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-0.09% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-0.13% , EL , Estee Lauder
-0.41% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-0.01% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.11% , CHD , Church & Dwight
-0.09% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
-0.04% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-0.56% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-0.12% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.07% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
3.13% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.57% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.15% Austria Index, EWO
2.07% Financial SPDR, XLF
2.05% Networking, IGN
1.82% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.81% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.80% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.80% India PS, PIN
1.79% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.76% Italy Index, EWI
1.75% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.72% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.62% Canada Index, EWC
1.62% Spain Index, EWP
1.60% China 25 iS, FXI
1.48% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.47% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.47% Sweden Index, EWD
1.44% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.43% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.37% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.35% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.31% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.29% South Africa Index, EZA
1.28% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.26% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.25% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.21% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.21% France Index, EWQ
1.21% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.21% European VIPERs, VGK
1.20% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.19% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.17% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.16% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.14% Mexico Index, EWW
1.14% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.13% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.12% Financial Preferred, PGF
1.11% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.07% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.05% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.05% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.05% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.04% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.03% Global 100, IOO
1.02% South Korea Index, EWY
1.01% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.01% Energy Global, IXC
1.00% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.98% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.95% Water Resources, PHO
0.94% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.93% Australia Index, EWA
0.93% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.93% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.92% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.91% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.90% EAFE Index, EFA
0.90% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.89% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.88% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.86% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.86% Energy DJ, IYE
0.85% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.82% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.78% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.76% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.74% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.73% Singapore Index, EWS
0.71% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.70% Russia MV, RSX
0.69% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.68% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.68% Germany Index, EWG
0.68% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.67% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.63% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.62% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.61% Japan Index, EWJ
0.61% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.60% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.60% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.59% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.58% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.57% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.56% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.56% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.56% Dividend International, PID
0.54% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.52% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.50% Belgium Index, EWK
0.49% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.48% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.47% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.46% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.45% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.45% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.45% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.44% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.43% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.42% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.40% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.38% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.38% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.38% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.35% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.34% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.33% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.33% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.32% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.32% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.31% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.28% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.21% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.20% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.19% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.17% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.15% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.15% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.12% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.11% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.11% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.10% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.07% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.07% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.05% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.01% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.05% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.16% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.45% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.48% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.69% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.71% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.84% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.98% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH