The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,215.75) consolidated recent losses in relatively inactive trading. The path of least resistance still appears to be down.

SPX price remains below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11, suggesting a persistent Bear trend.

Technology SPDR Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 3 months.

Energy SPDR Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 months and remains bearish.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 3-months and has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below the lows of the previous 5 weeks and fell below its 50-day SMA.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 14 months, again confirming a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below the lows of the previous 8 weeks.
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Stock Market Indicators

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,215.75) consolidated recent losses in relatively inactive trading.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1267.06, high of 12/7/2011
1261.40, 200-day SMA
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1221.06, low of 10/26/2011

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1215.42, low of 11/1/2011
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Averages, Industrial and Transportation, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. A short-term downtrend was confirmed on 11/21/11 when both Averages closed below previous 4-week lows after making lower highs since peaking on 10/27/11.

A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 3-months on 12/15/11 and has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has been bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 12/14/11. BKF/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 12/14/11. EEM/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 years on 12/14/11. EFA/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/14/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 10 weeks on 12/14/11 and has been in a rising trend since 11/4/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/11/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 12/14/11 and has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/24/11.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 69.5% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 30.5% Bears as of 12/14/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.

VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 4-months on 12/13/11, hitting 23.27 intraday. That is down from recent peaks of 30.91 on 12/8/11, 37.83 on 11/1/11, 46.88 on 10/4/11, and 48.00 on 8/8/11. This drop indicates a shift away from fear and toward confidence, which, according to the Art of Contrary Thinking, may be bearish. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) remains in bullish position above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistent Bull trend. Support 115.80, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 123.05 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) remains in bullish position above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistent Bull trend. Support 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 105.43 and 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been in a downtrend since 2/8/11. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11. JNK/LQD broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11. Absolute price of JNK has been weak since 10/27/11 and remains bearish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a downtrend since peaking on 4/8/11. TIP/IEF remains below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the highs of the previous 10 months on 12/14/11, again confirming its preexisting bullish trend. UUP rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/14/11 and remains bullishly above both its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.97, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/15/11, again confirming a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 5 weeks and fell below its 50-day SMA on 12/15/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/14/11. Finally, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.74, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 12/15/11. Previously, I warned that a break below the low at 165.53 set on 12/6/11 would be bearish. Further weakness appears probable. Support: 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 162.07, 165.53, 170.80, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) is bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 2 months on 12/15/11. SLV crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/8/11 and crossed below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. Support 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 32.53, 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 8 weeks on 12/15/11. JJC remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
16.34% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
1.13% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
0.74% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.41% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
8.00% , FDX , FEDEX
0.49% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
1.98% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
2.59% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
1.21% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.53% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
0.65% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
3.04% , CTAS , CINTAS
0.99% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
3.61% , PKI , PERKINELMER
2.63% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
2.36% , TLAB , TELLABS
2.24% , SNV , SYNOVUS
1.38% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.65% , ED , CON ED
0.72% , EXC , EXELON CORP
2.39% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
0.47% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
1.04% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.21% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.41% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
1.87% , BLL , BALL
2.25% , MRK , MERCK & CO
1.46% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
4.72% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
1.59% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
0.46% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
2.86% , TEVA , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited
0.77% , KMX , CarMax

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-8.38% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-0.49% , SWH , Software H, SWH
-2.89% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
-3.51% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-0.55% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.25% , PGN , PROGRESS ENERGY
-2.81% , ORCL , ORACLE
-1.33% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-3.08% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
-1.02% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
-2.31% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
-1.27% , SPLS , STAPLES
-0.21% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-2.09% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
-0.50% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.29% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-1.47% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-1.61% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-1.28% , CBS , CBS CORP.
-0.85% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
-0.24% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
-1.15% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-2.21% , EBAY , EBAY
-1.56% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-1.01% , AFL , AFLAC
-0.46% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-1.18% , COH , COACH
-0.56% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-0.77% , ALTR , ALTERA
-1.36% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
-0.52% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
-0.54% , FHN , First Horizon National
-0.56% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.38% Russia MV, RSX
2.17% India PS, PIN
1.67% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.67% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.64% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.49% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.48% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.43% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.38% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.36% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.33% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.25% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.21% Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.21% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.20% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.20% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.12% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.11% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.08% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.04% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.03% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
1.02% European VIPERs, VGK
1.02% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.99% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.93% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.91% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.86% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.86% Germany Index, EWG
0.81% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.79% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.77% Italy Index, EWI
0.76% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.75% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.74% Water Resources, PHO
0.74% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.72% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.71% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.69% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.68% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.68% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.68% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.66% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.65% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.63% Dividend International, PID
0.61% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.61% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.59% South Africa Index, EZA
0.56% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.55% Sweden Index, EWD
0.55% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.54% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.54% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.53% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.52% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.52% Austria Index, EWO
0.50% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.50% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.50% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.50% EAFE Index, EFA
0.50% Global 100, IOO
0.47% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.46% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.43% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.43% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.43% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.42% Spain Index, EWP
0.41% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.40% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.39% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.39% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.38% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.38% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.38% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.38% France Index, EWQ
0.37% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.37% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.37% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.36% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.36% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.36% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.34% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.33% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.31% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.31% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.30% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.27% Mexico Index, EWW
0.23% South Korea Index, EWY
0.21% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.20% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.16% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.16% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.15% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.10% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.10% Belgium Index, EWK
0.09% Australia Index, EWA
0.08% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.08% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.07% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.06% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.04% Canada Index, EWC
0.03% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.07% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.09% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.11% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.11% Energy Global, IXC
-0.19% Networking, IGN
-0.20% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.21% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.24% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.25% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.25% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.25% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.25% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.27% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.27% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.27% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.27% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.29% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.29% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.32% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.33% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.35% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.37% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.37% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.38% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.40% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.42% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.44% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.50% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.50% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.51% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.55% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.72% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.80% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.84% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.13% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.33% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.45% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO