The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,234.35.01) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 5 trading days on 12/8/11, which is bearish for the short term.
As I have been noting here, SPX appears to have encountered resistance near its 200-day SMA, now at 1263.64 and declining fractionally every day.
Short-term price momentum oscillators turned down sharply after having given early warning by stalling out after peaking on 11/30/11.
Longer term, the SPX 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) rose above the highs of the previous 7 trading days on 12/8/11, which is bullish for the short term.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the highs of the previous 6 trading days on 12/8/11, which is bullish for the short term.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 7 trading days on 12/8/11, which is bearish for the short term.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 13 months on 12/8/11, thereby confirming a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 6 trading days on 12/8/11. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Stock Market Indicators
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,234.35.01) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 5 trading days on 12/8/11, which is bearish for the short term.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1267.06, high of 12/7/2011
1263.64, 200-day SMA
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1221.06, low of 10/26/2011
1215.42, low of 11/1/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Averages, Industrial and Transportation, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. A short-term downtrend was confirmed on 11/21/11 when both Averages closed below previous 4-week lows after making lower highs since peaking on 10/27/11.
A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 3-months on 12/7/11 and has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite fell below the lows of the previous 5 trading days on 12/8/11, which is bearish for the short term. Price remains below its falling 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) remains below the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) remains below the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains below the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA of the EFA/SPY Ratio every day since 1/14/11.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 7 weeks on 12/8/11 and has been in a rising trend since 11/4/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/11/11.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/24/11.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 70.5% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 29.5% Bears as of 12/7/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. This is the most optimism in nearly 4 months. The 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.
VIX Fear Index , now at 30.59 rose above the highs of the previous 6 trading days on 12/8/11, which indicates increasing fear for the short term. VIX is up from a recent low of 25.29 intraday on 12/2/11 but is still down from a peak of 48.00 set on 8/8/11. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) rose above the highs of the previous 7 trading days on 12/8/11, which is bullish for the short term. TLT rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/7/11 and remains above its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistent Bull trend. Support 115.80, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 123.05 and 125.03.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) rose above the highs of the previous 7 trading days on 12/8/11, which is bullish for the short term. IEF rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/7/11 and remains above its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 105.43 and 106.66.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been in a downtrend since 2/8/11. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11. JNK/LQD broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11. Absolute price of JNK has been weak since 10/27/11 and remains bearish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a downtrend since peaking on 4/8/11. TIP/IEF is below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the highs of the previous 6 trading days on 12/8/11, which is bullish for the short term. UUP remains bullishly above 50-day and 200-day SMAs. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.97, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.44 and 22.62.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 13 months on 12/8/11, thereby confirming a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 7 trading days on 12/8/11, which is bearish for the short term. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/14/11. Finally, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 36.79, 36.49, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.74, 40.74, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price rose fell below the low of the previous trading day on 12/8/11. GLD is testing its 50-day SMA. A bounce now would be bullish for the short term, while a break below this week’s low at 165.53 would be bearish. GLD remains bullishly above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 165.53, 162.07, 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) is bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 8 trading days and crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/8/11. SLV remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. Support 29.83, 29.14, 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 6 trading days on 12/8/11. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.93% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
5.14% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
1.01% , CIEN.O , CIENA
1.62% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.64% , JWN , NORDSTROM
4.23% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
2.10% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.56% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
1.25% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.09% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
3.36% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.49% , MCD , MCDONALDS
0.29% , EBAY , EBAY
0.51% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
3.37% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.50% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
0.11% , AMGN , AMGEN
0.40% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
0.41% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
0.10% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.84% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
0.11% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
0.05% , ECL , ECOLAB
0.01% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.44% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-2.32% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-2.45% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-9.75% , PWER , POWER ONE
-1.22% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
-2.43% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-1.59% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-5.25% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-2.59% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-4.60% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-8.17% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
-2.34% , VIA.B , VIACOM STK B
-2.51% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-4.39% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.89% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
-2.19% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-1.92% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
-3.14% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-6.62% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-2.45% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.46% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
-5.02% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-5.14% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
-4.83% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-4.44% , AES , AES
-2.87% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-4.06% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
-5.04% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.16% , PID , Dividend International, PID
-4.54% , WAT , WATERS
-3.78% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.46% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-4.21% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.10% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
1.25% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.51% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.10% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.04% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.07% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.34% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.42% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.47% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.49% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.55% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.59% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.65% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.91% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.15% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.27% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.45% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.56% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.57% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.65% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-1.68% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.68% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.69% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.74% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.82% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.82% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.83% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.86% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.86% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.89% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.91% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.94% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.99% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-2.00% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-2.02% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.09% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-2.12% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-2.12% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-2.12% Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.15% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-2.16% Dividend International, PID
-2.18% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-2.19% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-2.23% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-2.24% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-2.26% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-2.27% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-2.31% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-2.33% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-2.35% Value VIPERs, VTV
-2.39% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-2.39% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-2.44% Mexico Index, EWW
-2.44% Networking, IGN
-2.44% Japan Index, EWJ
-2.44% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-2.45% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.47% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-2.47% MidCap Russell, IWR
-2.47% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-2.50% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.50% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-2.52% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-2.53% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-2.53% Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.53% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-2.54% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-2.55% Malaysia Index, EWM
-2.57% Energy DJ, IYE
-2.58% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-2.59% Belgium Index, EWK
-2.62% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-2.65% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-2.65% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-2.68% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-2.76% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-2.79% Taiwan Index, EWT
-2.79% Energy SPDR, XLE
-2.85% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.85% Global 100, IOO
-2.87% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-2.89% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.89% Energy Global, IXC
-2.91% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-2.92% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-2.92% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-2.94% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-2.95% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-2.97% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-3.01% Canada Index, EWC
-3.01% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-3.03% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-3.04% Microcap Russell, IWC
-3.04% China 25 iS, FXI
-3.11% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-3.11% Materials SPDR, XLB
-3.14% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-3.14% Latin Am 40, ILF
-3.14% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-3.16% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-3.17% Netherlands Index, EWN
-3.17% Water Resources, PHO
-3.17% South Korea Index, EWY
-3.19% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-3.24% Financial DJ US, IYF
-3.25% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-3.25% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-3.26% Australia Index, EWA
-3.27% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-3.28% EAFE Index, EFA
-3.30% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-3.35% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-3.38% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-3.38% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-3.40% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-3.42% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-3.52% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-3.53% Spain Index, EWP
-3.60% Emerging Markets, EEM
-3.70% Brazil Index, EWZ
-3.73% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-3.78% European VIPERs, VGK
-3.90% Financial SPDR, XLF
-4.06% Singapore Index, EWS
-4.13% Russia MV, RSX
-4.14% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-4.20% Austria Index, EWO
-4.24% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-4.31% Germany Index, EWG
-4.39% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-4.47% Sweden Index, EWD
-4.60% France Index, EWQ
-4.83% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-4.88% South Africa Index, EZA
-5.04% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-5.25% India PS, PIN
-5.86% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-6.10% Italy Index, EWI
