Stock Indicators Confirmed a Downtrend...

For the Short Term at Least

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below the lows of the previous 4 trading days on 11/17/11 and remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the highs of the previous 5 weeks.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke down below the lows of the previous 11 trading days.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) broke down below the lows of the previous 18 trading days.

Shares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 11/17/11, turning bearish.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 11/17/11, turning bearish.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,216.13) price fell below the lows of the previous 4 weeks on 11/17/11, indicating a short-term downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows since 10/27/11 also confirm a downtrend for the short term. The medium-term trend is neutral, with the 50-day below the 200-day SMA.

Volume on the NYSE rose 9% to its highest level since 11/9/11, which was also a down day for price. The stock market has been falling on heavy volume and rising on light volume in November, which is a bearish indication.
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Stock Market Indicators

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,216.13) fell 20.78 points or 1.68% on Thursday, November 17, 2011.

Longer-term indicators still are far from confirming any change in the Bearish Primary Tide Trend. For example, 50-day SMAs are well below 200-day SMAs for most stocks and indexes.

Ripples and Secondary Reactions opposite to the Dow Theory Primary Tide Trend lure short-term traders into trying to trade a bounce. Price corrections against the larger trends are normal and expected, of course, but playing counter-trend bounces is risky. The mood can switch from “risk on” to “risk off” overnight, leaving the too-clever trader suddenly holding the bag.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Averages, Industrial and Transportation, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. Both Averages would have to close above their closing price highs for the year to indicate a “Turn in the Tide”.

A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 9-week lows and fell further below its 50-day SMA on 11/10/11. The Ratio has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. This is cause for concern. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite fell below the lows of the previous 4 weeks on 11/17/11, indicating a short-term downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows since 10/27/11 also confirm a downtrend for the short term. The long-term price trend turned bearish on 11/17/11, with price below the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 11/17/11, turning bearish. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 11/17/11, turning bearish. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 years on 11/16/11, reconfirming the preexisting major Bear trend. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA of the EFA/SPY Ratio every day since 1/14/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 3 weeks on 11/17/11, confirming an uptrend for the short term. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains neutral for the medium term, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price also remains neutral.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains technically neutral, with the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price remains neutral.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 67.4% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 32.6% Bears as of 11/16/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. Sentiment has returned to normal: the 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.

VIX Fear Index , now at 34.51, rose above the 50-day SMA on11/17/11, indicating rising fear again. VIX had fallen to 24.44 on 10/28/11, down from a high of 48.00 on 8/8/11, suggesting that fear had decreased substantially. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,216.13) Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1271.06, 200-day SMA
1263.21, high of 11/3/2011
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1256.55, high of 10/24/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1221.06, low of 10/26/2011

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,216.13) Potential Support
1215.42, low of 11/1/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1190.58, low of 10/13/2011
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) broke out above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 11/17/11, confirming an uptrend for the short term. TLT crossed above its 50-day SMA on 11/14/11, turning technically bullish. Support 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) broke out above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 11/17/11, confirming an uptrend for the short term. IEF crossed above its 50-day SMA again on 11/14/11, turning technically bullish. Support 103.57, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) is technically neutral for the short term. Longer term, JNK/LQD broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11, which reconfirmed a bearish major trend. Absolute price of JNK has been weak since 10/27/11 and is now bearish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its 50-day SMA on 11/17/11, thereby turning bearish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the highs of the previous 5 weeks on 11/17/11. UUP rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/14/11, turning technically bullish. Support 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.32 and 22.63.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks on 11/17/11–this following a break below the lows of the previous 10 months on 10/3/11. DBA remains below 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day SMAs. DBA remains bearish in all time frames.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) rose 37% from its October low and appears overbought for the short-term. Moreover, the 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, implying a neutral medium-term trend. Longer term, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 37.57, 36.49, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.74, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke down below the lows of the previous 11 trading days on 11/17/11. Lower highs and lower lows since 11/8/11 indicate a downtrend for the short term. Support: 163.61, 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below 3-week lows on 11/17/11, suggesting a bearish trend for the short term. Longer term, GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) broke down below the lows of the previous 18 trading days on 11/17/11. Lower highs and lower lows since 10/27/11 indicate a downtrend for the short term. Longer term, SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. Support 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) broke down below the lows of the previous 7-weeks on 11/17/11. Lower highs and lower lows since 10/28/11 indicate a downtrend for the short term. Medium term, SLV/GLD has stayed in bearish position, below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs, every day since 8/4/11. Longer term, the SLV/GLD Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 11 months on 9/30/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend. SLV/GLD has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.88% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
2.36% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
4.82% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
0.59% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
2.02% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
1.57% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
2.12% , FHN , First Horizon National
3.94% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.99% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
2.42% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
4.44% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
3.23% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.60% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
0.66% , ITT , ITT INDS
1.05% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
2.41% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
0.69% , NI , NISOURCE
0.20% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.80% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.00% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
0.31% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
0.88% , RAI , Reynolds American
0.70% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
0.18% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
0.29% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
1.41% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
0.47% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
0.81% , EP , EL PASO
0.11% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
0.17% , HNZ , HJ HEINZ
0.14% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
0.01% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.09% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.10% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-2.92% , IGV , Software, IGV
-3.40% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
-12.43% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-1.90% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-4.70% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-12.30% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-6.33% , NCR , NCR
-2.55% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.23% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-2.85% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-6.46% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-1.42% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-3.02% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-1.72% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-4.55% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
-1.60% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
-2.73% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-4.03% , SLM , SLM CORP
-2.38% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-4.26% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-6.27% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-2.39% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-6.64% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-3.21% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-4.55% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-1.95% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
-3.95% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-4.95% , SWH , Software H, SWH
-2.27% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
-7.54% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
-2.53% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-1.71% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.80% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.20% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.11% Japan Index, EWJ
0.09% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.05% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.08% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.33% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.35% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.42% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.42% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.45% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.49% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.52% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.57% Spain Index, EWP
-0.59% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.73% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.77% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.79% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.86% Germany Index, EWG
-0.87% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.98% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.98% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.01% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.05% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.07% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.07% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.09% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.09% Dividend International, PID
-1.09% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.10% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.10% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.12% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.13% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.15% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.19% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.20% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.20% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.23% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.23% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.29% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.29% Global 100, IOO
-1.30% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.32% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.34% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.35% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.37% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.38% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.38% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.39% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.39% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.39% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.42% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.42% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.43% France Index, EWQ
-1.49% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.52% Italy Index, EWI
-1.52% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.53% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.54% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.56% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.59% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.59% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.61% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.61% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.63% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.64% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.64% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.65% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.68% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.69% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.71% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.71% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.73% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.74% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.75% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.76% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.79% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.79% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-1.81% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.81% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.83% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.84% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.86% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.88% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.88% Water Resources, PHO
-1.89% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.90% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.93% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.94% Energy Global, IXC
-1.95% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.96% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.96% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.96% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.97% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.01% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-2.01% MidCap Russell, IWR
-2.04% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-2.04% South Korea Index, EWY
-2.05% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.09% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-2.11% Australia Index, EWA
-2.15% Mexico Index, EWW
-2.18% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.21% Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.21% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.22% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.24% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.28% Energy SPDR, XLE
-2.32% Energy DJ, IYE
-2.32% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-2.34% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-2.35% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-2.37% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.38% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-2.39% Networking, IGN
-2.48% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.51% China 25 iS, FXI
-2.53% India PS, PIN
-2.54% Emerging Markets, EEM
-2.55% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-2.57% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.64% Canada Index, EWC
-2.66% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.77% Austria Index, EWO
-2.82% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-2.85% Materials SPDR, XLB
-2.87% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-2.95% Russia MV, RSX
-3.09% South Africa Index, EZA
-3.17% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.20% Indonesia MV, IDX
-3.27% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-3.44% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-3.53% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-3.87% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-3.95% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-4.36% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-6.64% Silver Trust iS, SLV

Stock Indicators Confirmed a Downtrend…

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