Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 11/7/11, reconfirming the preexisting downtrend. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA of the EFA/SPY Ratio every day since 1/14/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) broke out above 3-month highs on 11/7/11. The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, however, implying a neutral medium-term trend. Longer term, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke out above 6-week highs on 11/7/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish trend. Price remains above its 50- and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, new highs on 9/6/11 confirmed a major bull market.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,261.12) rose 7.89 points or 0.63% on Monday, November 7, 2011, thereby making back almost the same amount it lost on Friday.

Trading volume on the NYSE fell 13% below Friday’s slow pace and was 18% below the 200-day SMA. Therefore, volume did not confirm Monday’s price recovery.

Volume on falling price days has been less than volume on rising price days, casting doubt on the sustainability of rally attempts.

The high price volatility of recent months is typical of bear markets. In contrast, bull markets are much less volatile.

Longer-term indicators still are far from confirming any change in the Bearish Primary Tide Trend. For example, 50-day SMAs are well below 200-day SMAs for most stocks and indexes.

Ripples and Secondary Reactions opposite to the Dow Theory Primary Tide Trend lure short-term traders into trying to trade a bounce. Price corrections against the larger trends are normal and expected, of course, but playing counter-trend bounces is risky. The mood can switch from “risk on” to “risk off” overnight, leaving the too-clever trader suddenly holding the bag.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Averages, Industrial and Transportation, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. Both Averages would have to close above their closing price highs for the year to indicate a “Turn in the Tide”.

A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) consolidated gains since 11/1/11. Price gapped higher on 11/1/11, opening above the highs of the previous 7 trading days, which was a bullish signal for the short-term. The rising 50-day SMA is bullishly above the 200-day SMA. Support 21.59, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.88, 21.91, and 22.63.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 14 trading days on 11/1/11, confirming a short-term downtrend. This after falling below the lows of the previous 10 months on 10/3/11, which reconfirmed a major long-term downtrend.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) broke out above 3-month highs on 11/7/11. The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, however, implying a neutral medium-term trend. Longer term, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 38.47, 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke out above 6-week highs on 11/7/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish trend. Price remains bullishly above its 50- and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, new highs on 9/6/11 confirmed a major bull market. Support: 163.61, 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 177.40 and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 11/7/11. GDX/GLD is medium-term trend neutral, between 50- and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above the highs of the previous 5 trading days on 11/7/11, which may be bullish for the short-term trend. Longer term, SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. SLV fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/19/11, fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11, and remains bearishly below both SMAs. Support 31.50, 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) has stayed in bearish position, below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs, every day since 8/4/11 Longer term, the SLV/GLD Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 11 months on 9/30/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend. SLV/GLD has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its 50-day SMA again on 10/31/11, returning to its persistent bearish trend. JJC broke down below the lows of the previous 14 months on 10/5/11, confirming a bearish major trend. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
14.84% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
5.91% , AMGN , AMGEN
0.75% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
0.56% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
5.03% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
0.85% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.47% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
2.09% , PFE , PFIZER
2.71% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
1.77% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
2.47% , TYC , TYCO INTL
2.61% , HD , HOME DEPOT
0.50% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
3.57% , LOW , LOWES
0.54% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
3.96% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
0.29% , SWH , Software H, SWH
2.42% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.67% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
2.33% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
4.01% , NBR , NABORS
3.37% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
0.37% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
2.94% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
1.73% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.83% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
1.79% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
2.54% , TLAB , TELLABS
0.87% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
2.14% , HSP , HOSPIRA
0.28% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
2.92% , RTN , RAYTHEON
0.37% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-10.61% , DYN , DYNEGY
-2.67% , MET , METLIFE
-0.42% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-0.61% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-0.75% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-2.23% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-3.36% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-0.67% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-1.91% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-1.48% , ETN , EATON
-3.11% , BBY , BEST BUY
-0.91% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-0.19% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-1.92% , TER , TERADYNE
-1.65% , AA , ALCOA
-4.05% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
-0.25% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.53% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-1.30% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
-0.73% , INTU , INTUIT
-0.56% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-1.41% , DOV , DOVER
-1.95% , DLX , DELUXE
-0.74% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-1.22% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-0.68% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-0.38% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-0.57% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-0.26% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-1.64% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.95% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
-0.43% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.42% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.96% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
2.65% Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.42% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.86% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.84% Italy Index, EWI
1.73% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.64% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.56% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.50% South Africa Index, EZA
1.49% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.46% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.46% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.40% Russia MV, RSX
1.30% China 25 iS, FXI
1.28% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.19% Mexico Index, EWW
1.18% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.16% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.10% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.02% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.00% Sweden Index, EWD
0.96% India PS, PIN
0.94% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.92% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.89% Energy Global, IXC
0.86% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.85% Japan Index, EWJ
0.85% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.85% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.84% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.82% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.79% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.77% Spain Index, EWP
0.74% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.71% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.71% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.71% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.71% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.71% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.68% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.68% Australia Index, EWA
0.68% Canada Index, EWC
0.64% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.64% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.64% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.63% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.62% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.62% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.62% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.62% Energy DJ, IYE
0.61% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.61% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.61% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.60% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.59% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.59% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.56% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.56% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.56% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.56% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.55% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.54% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.54% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.54% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.51% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.50% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.50% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.47% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.47% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.46% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.44% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.44% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.43% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.43% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.42% EAFE Index, EFA
0.42% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.40% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.39% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.38% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.37% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.36% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.34% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.33% Singapore Index, EWS
0.33% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.32% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.31% Belgium Index, EWK
0.30% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.29% European VIPERs, VGK
0.29% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.28% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.27% Global 100, IOO
0.27% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.26% Dividend International, PID
0.25% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.25% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.24% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.23% South Korea Index, EWY
0.20% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.18% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.12% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.11% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.08% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.07% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.05% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.05% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.02% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.02% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.00% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.00% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.06% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.06% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.07% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.09% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.09% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.10% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.14% Germany Index, EWG
-0.15% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.17% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.17% Water Resources, PHO
-0.18% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.19% France Index, EWQ
-0.20% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.21% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.24% Networking, IGN
-0.24% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.25% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.34% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.40% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.41% Austria Index, EWO
-0.42% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.43% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.45% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.50% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.59% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.83% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.06% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.38% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.64% Switzerland Index, EWL