November
3,
2011 HOME EDUCATIONAL
PRODUCTS CONTACT
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Commentary Fed Viewed as Non-event (Note:
Unless otherwise stated, the
index
action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the
respective indices.
Actual index action may
differ slightly in terms of
pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.) WEDNESDAY’S MARKET
WRAP-UP Market
Snapshot
for November 2,
2011 (5:36 a.m. ET):
Closing
Prices: DOW
11,836.04 (+178.08,
+1.53%), SandP
500 1,237.90 (+19.62,
+1.61%), NASDAQ
2,639.98 (+33.02, +1.27%), Nikkei 225 8,640.42
(-195.10, -2.21), DAX 5,965.63 (+131.12, +2.25%), FTSE 5,484.10
(+62.53, +1.15%) OIL 92.51, GOLD 1,729.60, SILVER 34.27 EURO 1.3746, YEN 78.06, BRITISH POUND 1.5949, U.S.
DOLLAR INDEX 77.18 Market Reacts Little to
FOMC Policy Statement Wednesday
was a Fed Day, but you wouldn’t know it by merely looking at the
charts. Despite the strong post-announcement moves of the last meeting,
this time around the market reacted to the Fed’s latest policy
statement as if it were a non-event. Unsurprisingly, the FOMC kept its
target interest rate at 0.00-0.25%. Unlike last time, however, there
were no surprise statements to accompany this news. Fed chairman Ben
Bernanke reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to do everything within its
power to help the struggling economy and that it was willing to take
further action if necessary. The market did pull higher in the morning, which is typical of Fed-day
action, but Wednesday’s session was a particularly difficult one for
index traders. The morning’s price action was fairly smooth on the 5
minute time frame. The opening gap filled to some extent before finding
support around 10:00 a.m. ET and turning around to new highs by 11:00
a.m. ET, but after that point things became quite sloppy. A momentum
reversal took place as the morning wound down and prices began to slip.
They also became more volatile. Stronger overlap from bar to bar on the
5 minute time frame spoke to underlying uncertainty and made market
timing more difficult. Interestingly, volume did not drop off
substantially compared to the rest of the morning despite the looming
Fed decision. Dow
Jones Industrial Average (Figure 1) The market turned around in the afternoon following the 14:15 ET
announcement, but trade remained choppy with a greater degree of price
overlap. Congestion along the 5 minute 20 period moving averages
created a buy setup at 14:30 ET which continued for the next hour
before correcting off the upper end of the 15 minute trading channel
into the close. This correction continued afterhours and took the index
futures back to the lower end of the channel by midnight. Market Rallies Following
Europe’s Lead Trading turned around once again early Thursday morning. The European
Central Bank cut its interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point,
making it the first rate cut by the bank in two years. Europe will
continue to grab the headlines today as leaders meet for the G20
meeting in Cannes. Greece’s debt problems will be one of the focus
topics for the event. The index futures are up substantially higher in
premarket trade and the indices have managed to hang onto daily support
at the 20-day moving averages despite the weak bias of the past several
days. The market should continue to hold this support throughout
Thursday’s session, but the upside pace will not be sustainable. This
can easily lead to another choppy session without strong trend action. SandP
500 (Figure 2) Index Wrap-up The
Dow Jones Industrial
Average ($DJI) ended the day on Wednesday with a gain of 178.04 points, or 1.53%, and
closed at 11,836.04.
The strongest gains for the day came in the financials, which made a
strong recovery after a dismal day of trade on Tuesday. The top
performers were Bank of America (BAC) (+5.00%), Alcoa (AA) (+3.18%), JP
Morgan (JPM) (+2.84%), and American Express (AXP) (+2.71%). The only
Dow component to post a loss was Intel (INTC) (-0.21%). The
SandP 500 ($SPX) finished the session with a gain
of 19.62
points, or 1.61%, and
closed at 1,237.90. Top
performing industry groups were energy (+2.9%), financials (+2.8%), and
materials (+2.2%). The
strongest
individual percentage performers were Pioneer Nat. Res. (PXD)
(+12.58%), MetroPCS Communications (PCS) (+11.88%), EOG Res. (EOG)
(+11.83%), and Quanta Svcs (PWR) (+11.64%). The weakest were Becton
Dickinson and Co. (BDX) (-4.61%), Pitney Bowes (PBI) (-3.60%),
and Molson Coors Brewing Co. (TAP) (-3.30%). The Nasdaq
Composite
($COMPX) ended the session higher by 33.02 points, or 1.27%,
on Wednesday and
it closed at 2,639.98. The
top index components in the
Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) were NII Holding (NIHD) (+4.58%), Electronic Arts
(ERTS) (+4.54%), and Garmin (GRMN) (+4.45%). The weakest were Sirius XM
Radio (SIRI) (-2.89%), Qiagen (QGEN) (-2.70%), and Vertex
Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) (-2.33%). Nasdaq
Composite (Figure 3) Data Watch In economic news, weekly jobless claims fell below 400,000 with a drop
of 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 398,000 on first-time filings for
unemployment. This was slightly more than anticipated. Later today, the
Insitute for Supply Management will release its October
non-manufacturing index. It it expected to come in at 53.5. September’s
reading was 53.0. The Commerce Department will also release its factory
orders for September, which are expected to have fallen 0.1%. The major
economic news coming out of the States this week, however, will be
Friday’s employment data, which will include nonfarm payrolls and the
latest unemployment rate for October. ECONOMIC REPORTS AND
EVENTS THIS WEEK Oct 31 9:45 AM Chicago
PMI Oct Nov 1 10:00 AM ISM
Index Oct
Nov 1 10:00 AM Construction
Spending Sep
Nov 1 3:00
PM Auto
Sales Nov
Nov 1 3:00
PM Truck
Sales Nov Nov 2 7:00 AM MBA
Mortgage
Index 10/29
Nov 2 7:30 AM Challenger Job
Cuts Oct
Nov 2 8:15 AM ADP
Employment
Change Oct
Nov 2 10:30 AM Crude
Inventories 10/29
Nov 2 12:30 PM FOMC Rate
Decision Nov Nov 3 8:30 AM Initial
Claims 10/29
Nov 3 8:30 AM Continuing
Claims 10/22
Nov 3 8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q3
Nov 3 8:30 AM Unit
Labor Costs
-Prel Q3
Nov 3 10:00 AM Factory
Orders Sep
Nov 3 10:00 AM ISM
Services Oct Nov 4 8:30 AM Nonfarm
Payrolls Oct
Nov 4 8:30 AM Nonfarm
Private
Payrolls Oct
Nov 4 8:30 AM Unemployment
Rate Oct
Nov 4 8:30 AM Hourly
Earnings Oct
Nov 4 8:30 AM Average
Workweek Oct International:
Eastern Time Zone (GMT -4:00) (New York, Toronto) Oct
30 GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (OCT)
Oct 30 19:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA
Manufacturing
Purchasing Manager Index (OCT)
Oct 30 20:30 AUD Private Sector
Credit (SEP) Oct 31 01:00 JPY Annualized
Housing Starts (SEP)
Oct 31 01:00 JPY Housing Starts
(SEP)
Oct 31 05:30 GBP Net Consumer
Credit (SEP)
Oct 31 05:30 GBP Net Lending
Sec. on Dwellings
(SEP)
Oct 31 05:30 GBP Mortgage
Approvals (SEP)
Oct 31 06:00 EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Price Index
Estimate (OCT)
Oct 31 06:00 EUR Euro-Zone
Unemployment Rate
(SEP)
Oct 31 08:30 CAD Gross Domestic
Product (AUG)***
Oct 31 17:45 NZD Average Hourly
Earnings (3Q)
Oct 31 18:30 AUD AiG
Performance of
Manufacturing Index (OCT)
Oct 31 20:30 AUD House Price
Index (3Q)
Oct 31 21:00 CNY PMI
Manufacturing (OCT)***
Oct 31 21:30 JPY Labor Cash
Earnings (SEP)
Oct 31 23:30 AUD Reserve Bank
of Australia Rate
Decision (NOV 1)*** Nov 1 04:15 CHF
Retail Sales (Real) (SEP)
Nov 1 04:30 CHF
SVME-Purchasing Managers
Index (OCT)
Nov 1 04:55 EUR
German Purchasing Manager
Index Manufacturing (OCT F)
Nov 1 05:00 EUR
Euro-Zone Purchasing
Manager Index Manufacturing (OCT F)
Nov 1 05:30 GBP
Purchasing Manager Index
Manufacturing (OCT)
Nov 1 05:30 GBP Gross
Domestic Product
(3Q A)***
Nov 1 10:00 USD
Construction Spending
(SEP)
Nov 1 10:00 USD ISM
Manufacturing (OCT)
Nov 1 10:00 USD ISM
Prices Paid (OCT)
Nov 1 20:00 AUD HIA
New Home Sales (SEP) Nov 2 04:55 EUR
German Unemployment
Change (OCT)***
Nov 2 04:55 EUR
German Unemployment Rate
s.a. (OCT)
Nov 2 05:30 GBP
Purchasing Manager Index
Construction (OCT)
Nov 2 08:15 USD ADP
Employment Change
(OCT)
Nov 2 12:30 USD
Federal Open Market
Committee Rate Decision (NOV 2)***
Nov 2 14:15 USD
Bernanke Speaks at Fed
Press Conference***
Nov 2 17:45 NZD
Unemployment Rate (3Q)
Nov 2 17:45 NZD
Employment Change (3Q)
Nov 2 18:30 AUD AiG
Performance of
Service Index (OCT)
Nov 2 20:30 AUD
Retail Sales s.a. (SEP)
Nov 2 20:30 AUD
Retail Sales Ex Inflation
(3Q)
Nov 2 21:00 CNY China
Non-manufacturing
PMI (OCT) Nov 3 03:55 EUR
German Purchasing Manager
Index Services (OCT F)
Nov 3 05:00 EUR
Euro-Zone Purchasing
Manager Index Composite (OCT F)
Nov 3 05:00 EUR
Euro-Zone Purchasing
Manager Index Services (OCT F)
Nov 3 05:30 GBP
Purchasing Manager Index
Services (OCT)
Nov 3 08:45 EUR
European Central Bank
Rate Decision (NOV 3)***
Nov 3 10:00 USD ISM
Non-Manufacturing
Composite (OCT)
Nov 3 10:00 USD
Factory Orders (SEP) Nov
4 USD ICSC Chain Store Sales (OCT)
Nov 4 06:00 EUR
Euro-Zone Producer Price
Index (SEP)
Nov 4 06:00 EUR
German Factory Orders
s.a. (SEP)
Nov 4 07:00 CAD
Unemployment Rate (OCT)***
Nov 4 07:00 CAD Net
Change in Employment
(OCT)***
Nov 4 07:00 CAD Full
Time Employment
Change (OCT)
Nov 4 07:00 CAD Part
Time Employment
Change (OCT)
Nov 4 07:00 CAD
Participation Rate (OCT)
Nov 4 08:30 USD
Change in Non-farm
Payrolls (OCT)***
Nov 4 08:30 USD
Change in Private
Payrolls (OCT)
Nov 4 08:30 USD
Change in Manufacturing
Payrolls (OCT)
Nov 4 08:30 USD
Unemployment Rate (OCT)***
Nov 4 08:30 USD
Average Hourly Earnings
(OCT)
Nov 4 08:30 USD
Average Weekly Hours All
Employees (OCT)
Nov 4 10:00 CAD Ivey
Purchasing Managers
Index s.a. (OCT) ***
Highly influentialNotice:
The Bastiat Group, Inc. has attempted to verify the information
contained in this calendar, however, any aspect of such info may change
without notice. Foreign economic reports included in this list are only
those deemed medium to high impact. KEY EARNINGS
ANNOUNCEMENTS THIS WEEK
Monday, Oct 31, 2011
Before: ABH, AWI, AUXL, BWP, CPLP, CFFN, CYOU, CKSW, CNA, CTB, CVTI,
HAE, HMY, HCP, HMC, HUM, IDSY, IBCP, IART, L, MCY, NTE, ONB, PCRX,
SHAW, SOHU, TGE, TREX, UDR, UDRL, VTNC, WIT
During: CLBH, HFBC, RCKB
After: ACUR, ALL, ANAT, APC, ARRY, ASIA, ASTX, APL, AVB, CCO, CRK,
EXBD, UAN, ERT, KEYW, FMC, FST, GEOY, GTY, GLRE, HGIC, HLF, HFFC, HF,
IDTI, IVAC, KRA, LEAP, MPG, MDU, MIG, NAVR, PRXL, PRE, PPS, PSB, RTEC,
SKH, SM, TGI, VOLC, WTI, WINN Tuesday, Nov 1, 2011
Before: CAS, ALLT, AIMC, AMED, AMT, ABC, AFSI, ADM, ATRC, AUDC, BHI,
BPI, CHTR, CKP, CBR, CIE, CVLT, COCO, DTG, DUF, EMR, ETR, EXPD, FSS,
FCH, FIS, FE, RAIL, FDP, GKSR, IT, GET, GNRC, BGC, GWR, GLT, GOV, GLDD,
HPOL, HCA, HW, HS, HSIC, HHGP, GMO, IPXL, IPGP, KFFG, KBALB, FSTR, MAC,
MSO, MD, TYPE, NSP, NNBR, NMR, NVMI, NXPI, OHI, OSK, OSG, PGC, PFE,
PNW, PEG, RDN, RIGL, RBA, RDC, RTI, SIRI, STFC, SHOO, THC, TRP, TRI,
ECOL, VLO, VHS, VSH, VPG, WPI, WLK
During: HIT, MRO
After: BIRT, AEIS, ALNY, ATEC, ALTE, AHC, ACAS, AMSF, AMRS, AZPN, AACC,
ATML, AXS, BALT, BDX, BGFV, BIO, BBOX, BLKB, SAM, BRE, BTUI, DVR, CT,
CSCD, CHSI, CBL, CERS, CF, CRL, CHMT, CHSP, CDXS, CGNX, CCUR, CVG, CCG,
PRI, CACC, CSGS, DCT, DENN, DGI, DISCA, DEI, DFT, BOOM, DRCO, DX, EOG,
EXAC, XCO, FISV, FURX, GSX, GNK, GHDX, GEVO, GA, GIVN, GOOD, GUID,
HAIN, HCC, HR, HTZ, HTCO, ONE, HTCH, ICFI, IOSP, ISTA, JKHY, JAZZ, JBT,
JDSU, KNXA, KTCC, KFRC, KRC, LF, LMNX, MANT, MXL, MRGE, MBLX, MSPD,
MWA, MYGN, NLC, NATL, NRCI, NEU, NVTL, OKE, OKS, OPEN, OPXT, PZZA,
PEET, PSEM, PHH, PXD, PSE, PBI, PLT, PWAV, QLTY, RLOC, RNR, REXX, SBAC,
SIMO, SLRC, SLTM, FIRE, SGY, SUNH, SUNS, SNCR, TLEO, TRGT, TMH, TE,
TXRH, TCRD, THOR, TNS, TSON, TXCC, TRMB, TRLG, UNM, VRSK, WES, WEYS,
WMB, WPZ, INT, WMGI, XL, ZIPR Wednesday, Nov 2, 2011
Before: ACOR, AGL, ALE, ALVR, AOL, WTR, AVEO, AVA, FLY, BCRX, CLMT,
CNP, CLH, CLX, CTSH, CMCSA, CWH, CTCH, EPB, COT, DVN, DHX, DM, DW, DST,
DNKN, EDGW, EIX, EP, EE, EPD, EZCH, FOR, FELE, FCN, FNDT, GRMN, WOLF,
GPOR, HNT, HGG, HSNI, HUN, SPMD, ICE, KUB, LVLT, LINC, MMP, MMC, MA,
MDCI, TAP, MSCI, NEWS, NOR, DCM, NVE, OIIM, OZM, PRX, PSTB, PAG, H,
RELV, RTLX, RRD, SBGI, SNE, TRK, SPW, SXC, STE, TLM, TX, TEVA, TDW,
TWX, GTS, TRW, UNT, VG, WCG, WXS
During: AIRT, BCPC, END
After: ABCO, AFFX, AIN, ALTH, AOSL, AEL, ARC, ASI, AWK, ANIK, AREX,
ATNI, AVNW, BLDP, BMR, BBRG, CACI, CPE, CSU, CSII, CAR, CBEY, CTL,
CLWR, COHR, CIX, SCOR, CXO, CLR, CLGX, CVI, CUZ, CVD, CCRN, DK, DXCM,
ELLI, EIG, EXK, ETE, ETP, EPR, DNDN, EQY, ESS, EXL, EXTR, FICO, FWLT,
FBN, FIO, GPRO, GNCMA, GMR, GGC, ROCK, GAIN, GMXR, GDP, GVA, HBI, THG,
HIG, HT, HBM, HURN, ISIG, TEG, INTT, IPI, IXYS, JCOM, JLL, KAMN, KS,
KAR, KMPR, KIM, KND, KGC, KRG, KFT, LGCY, LHCG, LBTYA, LNC, LTC, MIC,
MHLD, MMUS, MCHX, MEAS, TST, MNDO, MUR, NSPH, NRP, NQ, NWSA, NTRI,
ONNN, ONXX, OSUR, OEH, OESX, ORA, PVA, PNG, PGTI, PAA, PPO, PRA, PL,
PRSC, PRU, QGEN, QCOM, RLD, RSO, RRTS, SHS, BFS, SWM, SGMS, SWIR, SMSI,
SSS, STAN, STRI, TTEC, TSLA, TSO, TPGI, THQI, RIG, TCAP, TTMI, UNTD,
VCLK, VRTU, VMC, WLT, WTS, WBMD, WEBM, WLL, WFM, XNPT, AUY, ZIP Thursday, Nov 3, 2011
Before: ABMD, ABVT, AGU, ALX, LNT, ATK, ANR, APO, ASCA, ANSS, APA, MT,
ARIA, AAWW, BWINB, BCE, BEAM, BLC, BBG, BKCC, BAH, BR, CAMT, CNQ, LSE,
FUN, CI, XEC, CBB, CIR, CNL, CCOI, CNSL, CNVO, COR, CRWN, CVS, DNR,
DEXO, DIN, DBLE, DRQ, DUK, EK, EGO, RDEN, ELT, ENP, ENR, NPO,
ESV, EL, EXAS, FUR, FIG, FTR, FSIN, GKNT, GTIV, GLP, GBX, HEES, HE,
HCN, HOS, IACI, IDA, IND, IRC, INMD, IDN, ICGE, IVR, ITG, KSWS, K, KOP,
KRO, LAMR, LNCE, LXP, TVL, LFUS, MDC, TUC, MGA, MFC, HZO, MEA, MGM,
MINI, MOCO, MNTG, NICE, NKA, NRF, NPSP, NRG, NXTM, NYX, CHUX, OGE, OWW,
ORN, OXF, PKD, PRFT, PETD, PQ, PCG, PNCL, PDC, PNM, POR, POZN, PPL,
PDII, PGN, PSA, QCCO, ROIC, RGLD, SLE, SVNT, SNI, SRE, SMBL, SOMX, SE,
SEP, SPR, STRA, SU, SFY, SXCI, SNTA, TEL, TS, TDC, TOWR, USPH, ULBI,
VC, WNR, WWE, XRIT
During: AMOT, CIB, BAP, DTV, SGA
After: ACET, ADUS, ADEP, ALIM, ALKS, AWH, MDRX, ALJ, AIG, AHS, AINV,
ARSD, ARI, AGII, AUTH, AVII, BEBE, WIFI, BPZ, CADX, CLMS, CPT, CSV,
CBOE, CBS, LYV, CEC, CQB, CIA, CSA, CCIX, FIX, CNW, CPNO, CUBE, CPIX,
CYTX, DVA, DGII, HIL, EROC, EIHI, ELON, BAGL, EBS, ESC, ERII, EVC,
ENTR, ERIE, EXAM, FFG, FRT, FSR, FLR, GST, GNW, GERN, GLUU, GXP, HTGC,
HME, IMMR, SAAS, IN, III, INWK, IRF, IILG, IRIS, JJSF, KEYN, KFN, KOG,
KTOS, LNKD, MAIN, MTZ, MXWL, MGRC, MDAS, MTD, MCHP, MAA, MHK, MOSY,
MOVE, MFLX, NCMI, NFG, NAVG, N, EGOV, OCLS, OIS, OGXI, OPWV, OTTR,
OUTD, PCCC, PKI, PMC, PLNR, POWI, POWR, PRO, QSFT, RNWK, RLH, RRGB,
REG, RENT, ROCM, RST, RDK, SALM, SD, SAPE, SCIL, SQI, SGEN, SEM, SQNM,
SKUL, SWKS, SRSL, SBUX, SUN, SPWRA, TECUA, TSRA, THLD, TRID, TPC, UIL,
UEIC, VVC, VNO, WRC, WWWW, WR, XOXO Friday, Nov 4, 2011
Before: AES, ALU, AEE, ALC, BWEN, BIP, BPO, BPL, CEDC, XTXI, XTEX,
DRAD, DXYN, G, GTN, GTXI, ZINC, IGTE, INHX, IBI, KKR, MSG, NPTN, NEE,
NWN, ZEUS, POM, PXP, RSTI, STWD, TTI, THS, UPL, GROW, VNDA, VTR, WCRX,
WPO, WIN, YRCW
During: NWLI After: ATAI, COWN, NU Note:
All economic numbers
and earnings reports are in line with those compiled by Briefing.com.
Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this
column and some companies have not confirmed their time, so always
double
check when taking positions overnight during earnings season! () = Not
yet confirmed at the time the list was compiled. DISCLAIMER
There
is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities. Past
results are not indicative of future returns. Prior
to
the execution of any securities trade, you should always consult with
your broker or other financial advisor. The
positions
given and described by the Bastiat Group, Inc. and its employees and
affiliates are for educational purposes only. The Bastiat
Group, Inc. and its members, employees, agents, consultants, analysts,
representatives, content and/or service providers, affiliates,
subsidiaries, successors and assigns (hereinafter collectively,
The
Bastiat Indemnities) assume no responsibility or liability for your
trading and investment results. Go to http://www.tonihansen.com/disclaimer.html
for a complete disclaimer. (C)
1998-2011 All information presented is property of
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