Stocks: Many Technical Signals, None Of Them Bullish

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,099.23) fell 32.19 points or 2.85% on Monday, October 3, 2011. SPX broke down below the lows of the previous 13 months.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their closing price lows of June, 2011. The Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower lows for both Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages. A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated.
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Includes Top Ten ETFs, Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings, charts, support and resistance levels, and much more.
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Stock Market Indicators

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below the lows of the previous 4 weeks on 10/3/11, confirming a minor downside correction. The Ratio rose above previous 10-year highs on 9/23/11, reconfirming a long-term uptrend. A long NASDAQ Composite and short S&P 500 hedge was a winning trade from 10/8/2002 to 9/23/11, and that major trend probably will resume in time. NASDAQ absolute price remains bearish, falling below 52-week closing price lows and falling further below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 10/3/11.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below 31-month lows on 9/30/11, reconfirming a major long-term downtrend. This basket of the stocks of Brazil, Russia, India and China is in a relatively bearish major trend.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below 29-month lows on 9/22/11, reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. Absolute price broke down below 25-month lows on 10/3/11and remains bearishly below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below 7-year lows on 9/19/11, reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. Absolute price broke down below 14-month lows on 9/22/11 and remains bearishly below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) shot up above the highs of the previous 14-months on 10/3/11. OEX/SPX rose above 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 9/21/11, which was a RELATIVELY bullish sign for the short-term trend of the Ratio. Absolute price of OEX remains bearish.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below 20-month lows on 10/3/11, reconfirming a major downtrend. Absolute price has been weak since 5/2/11, broke down below 13-month lows on 10/3/11, and remains bearishly below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 18-months on 10/3/11, reconfirming a bearish long-term major trend. MDY/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 13-months on 10/3/11, reconfirming a bearish long-term major trend.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 37.6% Bulls versus 40.9% Bears as of 9/28/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio was 0.92, up from 0.87 two weeks ago That 0.87 ratio was the lowest level since August, 2010 and was more than 1 standard deviation below the 20-year average. The 20-year median is 1.56 and the mean is 1.64.

VIX Fear Index remains stuck in its 7-week, relatively high level trading range, from a low of 30.16 to a high of 48.00. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their closing price lows of June, 2011. The Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower lows for both Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,099.23) fell 32.19 points or 2.85% on Monday, October 3, 2011. The Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1234.56, low of 8/3/11
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1230.71, high of 8/31/11

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) rose above the highs of the previous 6 trading days on 10/3/11, suggesting bullish price momentum for the minor trend. TLT rose above all-time highs on 9/22/11, reconfirming a long-term, major uptrend. Support 115.76, 114.05, 111.25, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 123.87.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) rose above the highs of the previous 5 trading days on 10/3/11, suggesting improving price momentum for the minor trend. IEF rose above all-time highs on 9/22/11, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Support 103.80, 103.55, 102.50, and 102.38. Resistance 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below 29-month lows on 10/3/11, reconfirming a bearish long-term major trend.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 13-month lows on 10/3/11, reconfirming a bearish long-term major trend. This means that fixed-income investors have been choosing the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs. So, fixed-income investors may be more worried about deflation than inflation.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above the highs of the previous 8 months on 10/3/11, reconfirming a major price uptrend. After the collapse of gold and the Swiss Franc, the U.S. dollar may be the last refuge for risk-averse investors. Support 22.13, 21.94, 21.75, 21.56, 21.42, and 20.84. Resistance 22.63.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below the lows of the previous 10 months on 10/3/11, reconfirming a major long-term downtrend.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price broke down below 17-month lows on 10/3/11, reconfirming a major long-term downtrend. Support 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 32.83, 32.91, 35.08, 35.14, 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price broke down below 9-week lows on 9/26/11,confirming a downtrend, for the short term at least. Gold rose above all-time highs on 9/6/11, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Support: 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 162.29, 170.32, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) remains bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Investors still prefer Gold bullion over Gold Miners.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, confirming a bearish major trend for the long term. SLV fell back below its 50-day SMA on 9/19/11 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11. Support 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 32.62, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) broke down below the lows of the previous 11 months on 9/30/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. SLV/GLD has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 10/3/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Such weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.78% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
9.32% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
5.04% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
5.65% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
2.64% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
2.03% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
4.66% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
2.73% , YHOO , YAHOO
2.82% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
2.43% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.90% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
0.21% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.91% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.72% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.35% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
0.22% , FO , FORTUNE BRANDS
0.12% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
0.12% , MON , MONSANTO

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.93% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-4.76% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
-5.04% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-5.07% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-4.25% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-5.25% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-3.10% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-3.34% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-2.88% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-1.04% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
-5.62% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-4.84% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-8.63% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
-3.73% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-10.20% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-5.05% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-4.42% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-3.74% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
-5.00% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-15.05% , DYN , DYNEGY
-5.42% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-3.09% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
-7.89% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-9.20% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
-3.18% , XLV , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-5.21% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
-9.64% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-3.52% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-9.31% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-4.01% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-4.72% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-2.80% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
-4.66% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.01% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.83% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.83% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.91% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.72% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.21% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.03% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.08% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.19% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.32% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.50% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.55% India PS, PIN
-0.57% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.75% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.83% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.21% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-1.26% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.35% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.35% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.45% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.49% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-1.59% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.76% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.85% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-1.92% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.94% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.96% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.98% Russia MV, RSX
-2.02% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-2.04% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-2.09% Emerging Markets, EEM
-2.15% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.25% Technology SPDR, XLK
-2.36% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-2.38% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-2.46% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-2.47% Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.51% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-2.53% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-2.54% Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.57% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-2.57% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-2.58% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-2.59% Global 100, IOO
-2.60% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-2.61% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-2.63% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-2.64% EAFE Index, EFA
-2.64% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-2.66% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-2.67% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.69% Dividend International, PID
-2.71% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.79% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-2.79% South Korea Index, EWY
-2.80% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-2.81% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-2.81% Materials SPDR, XLB
-2.82% Networking, IGN
-2.83% Sweden Index, EWD
-2.84% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-2.85% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-2.85% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-2.88% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.93% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-2.93% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-2.96% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.97% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-3.00% Singapore Index, EWS
-3.02% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-3.03% European VIPERs, VGK
-3.05% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-3.11% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-3.14% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-3.14% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-3.16% Financial Preferred, PGF
-3.18% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-3.18% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-3.20% Italy Index, EWI
-3.22% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-3.27% Value VIPERs, VTV
-3.29% Australia Index, EWA
-3.31% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-3.36% Belgium Index, EWK
-3.40% Energy SPDR, XLE
-3.45% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-3.50% China 25 iS, FXI
-3.54% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-3.57% Energy DJ, IYE
-3.60% Netherlands Index, EWN
-3.65% Energy Global, IXC
-3.65% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-3.65% Canada Index, EWC
-3.70% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-3.73% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-3.77% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-3.80% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-3.83% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-3.93% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-3.94% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-4.01% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-4.03% MidCap Russell, IWR
-4.09% France Index, EWQ
-4.25% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-4.30% Spain Index, EWP
-4.34% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-4.42% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-4.49% Financial SPDR, XLF
-4.49% Germany Index, EWG
-4.60% Financial DJ US, IYF
-4.60% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-4.66% Water Resources, PHO
-4.71% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-4.72% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-4.74% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-4.74% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-4.76% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-4.78% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-4.79% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-4.88% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-4.89% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-4.94% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-4.99% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-5.00% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-5.00% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-5.04% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-5.05% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-5.05% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-5.07% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-5.09% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-5.12% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-5.12% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-5.15% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-5.18% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-5.44% Microcap Russell, IWC
-5.57% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-5.60% Austria Index, EWO
-6.56% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-6.88% Indonesia MV, IDX
-7.89% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW