WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower Friday in Chicago in response to selling seen in most markets and ideas that most of the export business was still going to Russia and countries near there. Egypt was a big buyer of Russian What last week. However, rail transport problems have made shipping Russian Wheat through Black Sea ports very difficult for now and grain shipments are being halted until the rail situation can be resolved. Some showers were seen in much of the Great Plains and Midwest over the weekend. Rain totals remain very light, but even light rain will help there since it has been so dry. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained all that much in areas of the central and southern Great Plains continue, and these ideas supported buying after the lower start. Some forecasts call for some showers in the region this week. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas was hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains in the north, but harvest conditions now are good. Wheat is still finding its way into feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. The current Corn prices imply that these trends will continue. Charts show that the trends are down.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but some rains are likely on Wednesday. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions, but showers are expected tomorrow. Temperatures should average near to below normal early in the week and near to above normal later in the week. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions, but rain is possible in southern sections today and tomorrow. Temperatures will average near normal to above normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 686, 669, and 666 December, with resistance at 707, 717, and 725 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 778, 770, and 755 December, with resistance at 800, 806, and 816 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 853, 833, and 822 December, and resistance is at 876, 879, and 885 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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WHEAT – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 490,790
: Positions
: 46,939 166,075 183,124 15,979 32,506 56,674 67,824 51,616 15,691 29,991 67,801
: Changes from: September 6, 2011
: 7,237 -13,898 878 787 102 -7,172 17,472 3,692 1,321 -209 -320
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 9.6 33.8 37.3 3.3 6.6 11.5 13.8 10.5 3.2 6.1 13.8
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 412
: 74 93 21 7 24 54 68 57 64 79 109
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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WHEAT – KANSAS CITY BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 160,145
: Positions
: 28,124 99,560 24,485 0 1,947 49,659 4,348 15,438 11,204 5,371 8,227
: Changes from: September 6, 2011
: 2,158 -4,164 -931 0 223 -328 1,963 60 -2,143 -449 757
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 17.6 62.2 15.3 0.0 1.2 31.0 2.7 9.6 7.0 3.4 5.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 176
: 43 67 14 0 7 32 11 23 20 13 24
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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WHEAT – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 43,379
: Positions
: 11,767 25,821 678 0 271 9,498 382 1,258 2,669 720 4,257
: Changes from: September 6, 2011
: 259 214 -27 0 1 641 137 -19 -698 167 344
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 27.1 59.5 1.6 0.0 0.6 21.9 0.9 2.9 6.2 1.7 9.8
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 60
: 23 17 . 0 . 9 . . 9 6 14
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RICE
General Comments: Prices were a little lower Friday on speculative selling, but held well on reports of higher prices in Asia and cold temperatures here in the US. The weather has been cool enough to hurt Rice progress and yield potential, at least in Arkansas and Missouri. The harvest continues to move north, although many producers near the Gulf Coast about done with the harvest. Initial yield reports are mixed in Arkansas. Yield reports are getting worse along the Gulf Coast as farmers finish with later planted Rice. Milling yields have not been good as harvest progresses. US cash markets are reported to be steady to firm in Arkansas. New crop bids have also been steady to firm. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady to firm.
Futures remain well above cash prices, but cash prices are starting to move a little higher as the harvest progresses.
Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas this weekend, but mostly dry. Temperatures will average below normal. Bangladesh now said it will import no more than 500,000 tons of Rice this year, from up to 900,000 tons forecast earlier, due to good local production.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1765, 1751, and 1720 November, and resistance is at 1822, 1829, and 1836 November.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 19,262
: Positions
: 3,914 13,575 3,404 0 0 4,398 1,246 0 1,512 2,160 1,178
: Changes from: September 6, 2011
: 407 179 -9 0 0 122 50 0 5 215 -213
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 20.3 70.5 17.7 0.0 0.0 22.8 6.5 0.0 7.8 11.2 6.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 96
: 17 17 9 0 0 23 6 0 20 16 14
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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats closed higher Friday, with Corn lower on ideas of poor demand and reports that the cold temperatures seen last week did only minimal; damage to the crop. Some showers and cool temperatures were seen over the weekend and the precipitation could slow harvest progress. USDA showed strong export sales for one of the few times this year, but the weekly sales will need to stay strong for a while before traders will change ideas of poor overall demand. A cold front has moved through the Midwest and brought frost or freezes to some of the crop in Minnesota and the Dakotas. However, the area with temperatures cold enough to kill Corn or Soybeans was relatively small. The cash market is steady, and cash market buyers have been hard to find with current prices. End users are increasingly looking to Wheat or other substitute grains in place of Corn due to the high price of Corn. The export sales pace has also been behind last year. Basis levels are weak in the country as the elevators prepare for the harvest. Oats are about done being harvested, so the market might soon find a bottom.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico. USDA said farmers certified 87.36 million acres of Corn planted this year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 690 December. Support is at 686, 669, and 666 December, and resistance is at 707, 717, and 725 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 342, 338, and 334 September, and resistance is at 349, 359, and 361 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,905,262
: Positions
: 302,763 757,763 288,045 61,598 114,752 331,943 33,610 184,010 84,475 57,207 411,203
: Changes from: September 6, 2011
: 6,812 -25,791 -6,838 -220 1,518 -25,997 7,019 -15,163 -2,391 -7,301 -10,250
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 15.9 39.8 15.1 3.2 6.0 17.4 1.8 9.7 4.4 3.0 21.6
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 905
: 236 374 17 11 25 130 37 80 144 150 211
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 15,674
: Positions
: 6,353 11,528 2,109 0 0 2,160 950 0 547 241 1,586
: Changes from: September 6, 2011
: 907 -723 -114 0 0 -792 423 0 62 118 124
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 40.5 73.5 13.5 0.0 0.0 13.8 6.1 0.0 3.5 1.5 10.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 42
: 9 13 5 0 0 9 4 0 5 5 6
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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CBT ETHANOL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 29,000 U.S. GALLONS)
CFTC Code #025601 Open Interest is 10,469
: Positions
: 8,008 7,265 1 1,065 105 743 16 159 324 892 636
: Changes from: September 6, 2011
: -39 -180 0 66 0 5 16 11 10 27 -13
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 76.5 69.4 0.0 10.2 1.0 7.1 0.2 1.5 3.1 8.5 6.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 37
: 20 22 . . . . . . . . .
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SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower Friday on ideas of weak demand and on reports of little damage to crops from the cold weather seen the last couple of days, but Soybean Oil closed higher. A cold front moved through the Midwest last week and brought frost or freezes to some of the crop in Minnesota and the Dakotas. However, the area with temperatures cold enough to kill Corn or Soybeans was relatively small. There are reports that some northern Soybeans are showing the effects of the cold weather from last week. Some showers were seen over the weekend, but were coming mostly too late to help crops much. US processor demand is not strong right now, either. Demand is not strong at this time for US Soybeans, and basis levels are steady at best. Charts show that trends are mostly down for the short term.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady to weaker at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. Monthly data released Thursday by the USDA’s Farm Service Agency showed U.S. 2011 soybean plantings at 73.474 million acres, up about 400,000 from August. The data also showed prevented soy acres at 1.436 million, and failed soy acres at 156,000.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1349, 1345, and 1318 November, and resistance is at 1375, 1382, and 1388 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 346.00, 338.00, and 337.00 October, and resistance is at 353.00, 354.00, and 360.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 5600, 5545, and 5475 October, with resistance at 5625, 5670, and 5770 October.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 836,554
: Positions
: 138,842 407,552 135,192 18,891 41,148 170,065 11,384 70,917 33,957 31,746 176,573
: Changes from: September 6, 2011
: 26,956 3,872 -2,133 -601 7,161 -12,048 3,362 -3,861 -3,646 261 -4,456
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 16.6 48.7 16.2 2.3 4.9 20.3 1.4 8.5 4.1 3.8 21.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 623
: 101 192 19 8 23 125 24 71 110 123 163
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 60,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 338,985
: Positions
: 89,717 200,953 62,201 3,806 14,111 59,372 12,317 23,460 16,868 21,309 39,372
: Changes from: September 6, 2011
: 12,061 11,064 891 589 252 -1,887 720 687 1,531 195 1,750
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 26.5 59.3 18.3 1.1 4.2 17.5 3.6 6.9 5.0 6.3 11.6
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 261
: 51 62 15 . 14 68 17 25 34 38 52
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 13, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 100 TONS)
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 215,377
: Positions
: 56,174 132,584 16,316 6,957 976 63,387 13,745 14,106 6,019 6,933 19,154
: Changes from: September 6, 2011
: -751 -13,856 -3,490 1,131 -43 -7,624 2,289 -2,446 -40 -1,116 -3,443
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 26.1 61.6 7.6 3.2 0.5 29.4 6.4 6.5 2.8 3.2 8.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 199
: 54 58 10 . 7 56 14 16 25 13 30
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CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mixed. Funds and producers were the best sellers, but speculator and users did some buying late in the day. Exporters and processors were the best buyers. Reports of dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Some selling was seen as export demand seems slow. Cash movement by farmers was reported moderate last week as the farmers are with the new crop harvest. Most crops appear to be in good condition as harvest progresses, and yields are reported to be very good. Palm Oil was lower today on weakness in outside markets and demand ideas. An Indian company has cancelled an import tender, and Pakistan lowered import tariffs for Palm Oil from Indonesia .
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 546.00, 544.00, and 532.00 November, with resistance at 553.00, 557.00, and 560.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 3025, 2980, and 2960 December, with resistance at 3090, 3115, and 3125 December.
DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Weekly Crush – Sep 16
Winnipeg (Dow Jones) – The Canadian Oilseed Processors
Association reported the Canadian oilseed crush for the week
ended September 14, 2011, as follows:
Figures are in metric tons. R-denotes revision.
Cumulative Cumulative
Week 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11
Ended Canola (Aug/Jul) Sybns (Aug/Jul)
Sep 14 115,184 662,002 696,141 22,390 150,589 161,238
Sep 07 111,669 546,818 587,415 22,472 128,199 132,011
Aug 31 73,560 435,149 469,128 19,611 105,727 102,732
Aug 24 86,039 361,589 360,761 23,160 86,116 84,318
Aug 17 110,379 275,550 272,513 26,568 62,956 69,391
Crush Capacity Untilization
This Week Year-to-Date Year Ago
Canola 79.3% 69.7% 73.3%
Soybeans 50.0% 51.4% 55.0%
Midwest Weather: Mostly dry. Temperatures will average below normal.
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