The majority of major stock price indexes opened higher on gaps but reversed to close with losses on the day. This may signal exhaustion of the short-term uptrend. Sentiment indicators have been suggesting that the stock market may be over loved and overbought. And in view of the sharp reversals in the metal commodities, the so-called “inflation trade”, when speculators buy stocks and sell fixed-income instruments based on expectations of rising price levels for goods and services, may be on thin ice.

Financial SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 2-year lows and remains bearish. An underperforming Financial Sector is never a good sign for the general stock market.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) plunged below 15-month lows, again reconfirming its bearish trend. The Ratio crossed below the 50-day SMA on 4/15/11, remains below the 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA.

Silver broke sharply below the lows of the previous 2 weeks. The short-term price trend may have turned down. If so, that could have implications for inflation expectations.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
18.97% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
4.01% , CEPH , Cephalon Inc
4.76% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
0.62% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
1.08% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
6.03% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
1.09% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
4.57% , IP , INTL PAPER
0.91% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
2.02% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
3.37% , TEVA , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited
2.21% , EFX , EQUIFAX
1.71% , CBS , CBS CORP.
1.24% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
1.04% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
0.91% , GIS , GENERAL MILLS
2.75% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
3.07% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
2.49% , YHOO , YAHOO
1.25% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
0.76% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
2.71% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
0.92% , DLX , DELUXE
1.05% , PGN , PROGRESS ENERGY
1.06% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
2.16% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
0.91% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
1.06% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
1.10% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
1.07% , SVU , SUPERVALU
1.67% , AET , AETNA
3.45% , GCI , GANNETT
0.88% , NOC , NORTHROP GRUMMAN

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.46% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-1.44% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-0.76% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-2.50% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-3.78% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-8.64% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.10% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-3.39% , MBI , MBIA
-0.20% , SWH , Software H, SWH
-0.38% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-0.32% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.73% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-1.37% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.41% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
-3.32% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-2.78% , L , LOEWS
-3.23% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-2.81% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-1.71% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-3.65% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
-0.79% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-6.90% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-4.81% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-0.99% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-4.97% , WFMI , Whole Foods Market Inc
-1.09% , SMH , Semiconductor H, SMH
-4.02% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-1.66% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
-1.66% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.68% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.98% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
-1.00% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.56% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been consolidating gains since 4/5/11 and remains neutral. Absolute price has been consolidating gains since 4/6/11. Support 77.92, 75.18, 72.85, 68.73, 67.49, 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 80.97, 83.27, and 91.42.

Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) has been consolidating gains since 4/4/11 and remains neutral. Absolute price rose above previous 2-year highs on 4/29/11. Support 37.39, 36.24, 35.08, 35.03, 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 39.0 and 39.97.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) has been moving sideways for 2 months. Longer term, the Ratio has been consolidating gains since 11/26/10. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 4/28/11, which is bullish. Support 38.90, 38.46, 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 40.72.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) remains neutral based on moving average relationships, with the 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price remains bullish. Support 32.57, 31.43, 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 36.67 and 37.89.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) ) has been consolidating gains since 4/5/11 and remains neutral. Absolute price has been consolidating gains since 4/6/11. Support 39.89, 38.44, 38.06, 36.44, 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 41.28, 43.04, 45.21, 45.21, and 46.54.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) remains neutral, based on moving average relationships, with the 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price remains bullish. Support 29.64, 28.71, 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance: none.

Technology (XLK) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 13-month lows on 4/5/11. The Ratio gave a clear bearish signal on 3/22/11 when the 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio crossed below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLK peaked on 2/18/11 and remains neutral. Support 25.20, 24.87, 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 27.09, 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) remains neutral, based on moving average relationships, with the 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 5/2/11 and remains bullish. Support 31.35, 31.20, 30.74, 30.53, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 34.89 and 36.24.

Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 5/2/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price fell below 3-week lows on 4/18/11 and remains neutral. Support 15.79, 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.75, 16.85, 17.20, and 17.87.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio has been consolidating gains since 1/18/11 and remains neutral. Absolute price rose above 10-year highs on 4/28/11, reconfirming a bullish major trend.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell further below 28-year lows on 4/21/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has lost upside momentum since 4/5/11, when it rose above all-time highs, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Short term, the Ratio looks no better than neutral.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has lost upside momentum since 4/5/11, when it rose above all-time highs, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Short term, the Ratio looks no better than neutral.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose above 2-year highs intraday on 5/2/11 but closed moderately lower. Oil has been confirming uptrends in all timeframes. Support 110.71, 105.98, 105.31, 102.70, 97.02, 96.22, 95.14, 87.09, 83.85, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 73.52, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 120.42, 130.0, and 147.27.

Gold nearest futures contract price rose above all-time highs on 5/2/11, again reconfirming its major uptrend. Gold looks overextended, however, and could be due for a downside correction. Support 1492.0, 1445.0, 1411.5, 1380.7, 1419.5, 1351.4, 1309.1, 1307.7, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: none.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) plunged below 15-month lows on 5/2/11, again reconfirming its bearish trend. The Ratio crossed below the 50-day SMA on 4/15/11, remains below the 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA.

Silver nearest futures contract price broke sharply below the lows of the previous 2 weeks. The short-term price trend may have turned down. If so, that could have implications for inflation expectations. Support 39.70, 39.12, 37.08, 36.43, 33.565, 31.695, 31.61, 30.265, 29.635, 26.30, 24.98, and 22.84. Resistance: 49.82 and 50.35.

Silver/Gold Ratio broke sharply below the lows of the previous 2 weeks. The short-term price trend may have turned down.

Copper nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks on 4/29/11. The short-term price trend still appears to be down. Copper appears to be in an intermediate-term consolidation since peaking at 4.6575 on 2/15/11. Strength in Copper suggests confidence in the economic outlook, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 4.076, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: 4.533, 4.554, 4.6495, and 4.6575.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose above 6-week highs on 4/29/11, confirming that the short-term trend is still up. The Bond could be building an intermediate-term bullish base since the low of 2/9/11. In its favor, nearly everyone has been talking bearish on Bonds this year, so the Bond could be oversold. Support 120.20, 119.15, 117.28, 117.04, 116.26, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 123.22, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been stuck in a neutral trading range most of the time since JNK peaked at 41.32 on 11/4/10.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has eased lower after rising above 2-year highs on 4/8/11. The Ratio had been in a rising trend from 8/24/10 to 4/8/11, reflecting fixed-income investors’ preference for inflation-protected TIPs over the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF).

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell further below the lows of the previous 16 months on 5/2/11, again reconfirming a long-term, major downtrend. Support 70.80. Resistance 76.055, 76.87, 77.675, 78.98, 79.34, 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 57.3% Bulls versus 15.7% Bears as of 4/6/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio soared to 3.65, up from 2.23 the previous week. The Ratio rose its highest level in the 8 years since the 20-year high of 3.74 set on 6/18/03. Following that 2003 peak, the stock market turned sideways/choppy for 2 months and sentiment reverted toward the mean. The Ratio’s 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.56, and the mean is 1.63. According to Humphrey B. Neill, The Art of Contrary Thinking, when everybody thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong.

VIX Fear Index fell below its 3-year range on 4/20/11, hitting 14.30 intraday, and again confirming a preexisting trend toward bullish complacency. This follows a brief spike up to an intraday peak of 31.28 on 3/16/11. Fear was short-lived. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 4/28/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months.

The majority of major stock price indexes opened higher on gaps but reversed to close with losses on the day. This may signal exhaustion of the short-term uptrend.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.50, high of 5/2/11

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1294.70, low of 4/18/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

1.09% Austria Index, EWO
1.02% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.97% South Korea Index, EWY
0.65% EAFE Index, EFA
0.39% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.35% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.33% Canada Index, EWC
0.26% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.24% Japan Index, EWJ
0.23% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.20% Sweden Index, EWD
0.15% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.13% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.09% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.07% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.06% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.03% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.02% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.00% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.00% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.02% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.02% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.03% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.04% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.05% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.06% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.07% France Index, EWQ
-0.07% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.07% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.07% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.08% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.09% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.10% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.10% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.11% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.12% Global 100, IOO
-0.12% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.14% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.14% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.14% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.15% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.15% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.15% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.15% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.15% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.16% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.16% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.16% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.16% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.16% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.17% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.17% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.17% Germany Index, EWG
-0.18% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.19% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.19% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.19% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.20% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.20% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.21% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.21% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.21% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.23% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.23% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.24% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.24% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.25% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.26% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.26% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.27% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.29% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.29% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.29% Dividend International, PID
-0.30% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.31% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.31% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.31% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.31% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.32% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.36% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.37% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.37% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.38% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.42% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.43% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.44% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.45% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.47% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.47% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.48% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.49% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.50% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.50% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.51% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.58% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.61% Spain Index, EWP
-0.63% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.64% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.64% Water Resources, PHO
-0.65% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.66% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.67% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.68% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.68% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.70% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.71% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.71% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.75% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.79% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.85% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.85% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.86% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.87% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.89% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.90% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.92% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.92% Energy Global, IXC
-0.95% Russia MV, RSX
-0.99% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.00% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.00% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.02% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.07% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.09% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.17% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.20% Australia Index, EWA
-1.21% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.24% Italy Index, EWI
-1.28% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.33% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.37% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.38% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.41% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.43% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.48% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.53% Networking, IGN
-1.66% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.71% India PS, PIN
-6.90% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-8.64% Silver Trust iS, SLV