Based on prices as of the close on Friday, April 29, 2011.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 144 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation.Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Silver Miners Global X, SIL
98 South Korea Index, EWY
97 Sweden Index, EWD
96 Energy VIPERs, VDE
96 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
95 Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
94 Energy SPDR, XLE
94 Biotech SPDR, XBI
93 Germany Index, EWG
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, April 29, 2011.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Silver Miners Global X, SIL
98 South Korea Index, EWY
97 Sweden Index, EWD
96 Energy VIPERs, VDE
96 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
95 Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
94 Energy SPDR, XLE
94 Biotech SPDR, XBI
93 Germany Index, EWG
92 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
92 Energy DJ, IYE
91 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
90 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
89 Commodity Tracking, DBC
89 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
88 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
87 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
87 Energy Global, IXC
86 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
85 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
85 Indonesia MV, IDX
84 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
83 Belgium Index, EWK
82 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
82 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
81 Switzerland Index, EWL
80 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
80 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
79 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
78 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
77 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
77 South Africa Index, EZA
76 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
75 Australia Index, EWA
75 REIT Wilshire, RWR
74 EMU Europe Index, EZU
73 France Index, EWQ
73 Microcap Russell, IWC
72 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
71 Industrial SPDR, XLI
70 MidCap Russell, IWR
70 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
69 Italy Index, EWI
68 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
68 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
67 Netherlands Index, EWN
66 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
65 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
65 Taiwan Index, EWT
64 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
63 Austria Index, EWO
63 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
62 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
61 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
61 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
60 European VIPERs, VGK
59 Russia MV, RSX
58 Materials SPDR, XLB
58 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
57 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
56 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
56 QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
55 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
54 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
54 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
53 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
52 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
51 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
51 Networking, IGN
50 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
49 United Kingdom Index, EWU
49 Growth VIPERs, VUG
48 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
47 Canada Index, EWC
46 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
46 Mexico Index, EWW
45 Dividend International, PID
44 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
44 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
43 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
42 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
42 Spain Index, EWP
41 Health Care SPDR, XLV
40 Value VIPERs, VTV
39 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
39 Global 100, IOO
38 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
37 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
37 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
36 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
35 Malaysia Index, EWM
35 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
34 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
33 Emerging Markets, EEM
32 EAFE Index, EFA
32 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
31 Water Resources, PHO
30 Singapore Index, EWS
30 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
29 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
28 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
27 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
27 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
26 Technology DJ US, IYW
25 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
25 Technology SPDR, XLK
24 Dividend SPDR, SDY
23 Hong Kong Index, EWH
23 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
22 Latin Am 40, ILF
21 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
20 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
20 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
19 Financials VIPERs, VFH
18 Financial DJ US, IYF
18 Utilities SPDR, XLU
17 Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
16 China 25 iS, FXI
15 Financial SPDR, XLF
15 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
14 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
13 Brazil Index, EWZ
13 Financial Preferred, PGF
12 India Earnings WTree, EPI
11 India PS, PIN
11 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
10 Financial Services DJ, IYG
9 Bond, TIPS, TIP
8 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
8 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
7 Bond, Corp, LQD
6 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
6 Japan Index, EWJ
5 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
4 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
4 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
3 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
2 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
1 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
