Based on prices as of the close on Thursday, April 21, 2011.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 144 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Silver Miners Global X, SIL
98 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
97 South Korea Index, EWY
96 Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
96 Energy VIPERs, VDE
95 Energy SPDR, XLE
94 Commodity Tracking, DBC
94 Energy DJ, IYE
93 Biotech SPDR, XBI
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Thursday, April 21, 2011.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Silver Miners Global X, SIL
98 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
97 Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
96 Biotech SPDR, XBI
96 Commodity Tracking, DBC
95 Energy VIPERs, VDE
94 Energy SPDR, XLE
94 South Korea Index, EWY
93 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
92 Energy DJ, IYE
91 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
91 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
90 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
89 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
89 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
88 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
87 Sweden Index, EWD
87 Indonesia MV, IDX
86 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
85 Energy Global, IXC
84 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
84 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
83 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
82 Germany Index, EWG
82 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
81 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
80 Russia MV, RSX
79 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
79 Microcap Russell, IWC
78 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
77 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
77 MidCap Russell, IWR
76 Australia Index, EWA
75 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
74 Austria Index, EWO
74 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
73 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
72 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
72 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
71 Industrial SPDR, XLI
70 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
70 Canada Index, EWC
69 Mexico Index, EWW
68 Belgium Index, EWK
67 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
67 Switzerland Index, EWL
66 REIT Wilshire, RWR
65 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
65 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
64 Netherlands Index, EWN
63 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
62 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
62 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
61 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
60 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
60 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
59 Emerging Markets, EEM
58 Materials SPDR, XLB
57 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
57 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
56 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
55 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
55 EMU Europe Index, EZU
54 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
53 South Africa Index, EZA
52 Malaysia Index, EWM
52 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
51 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
50 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
50 Water Resources, PHO
49 France Index, EWQ
48 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
48 Growth VIPERs, VUG
47 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
46 Hong Kong Index, EWH
45 QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
45 Dividend International, PID
44 Singapore Index, EWS
43 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
43 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
42 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
41 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
40 Value VIPERs, VTV
40 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
39 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
38 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
38 United Kingdom Index, EWU
37 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
36 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
35 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
35 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
34 Health Care SPDR, XLV
33 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
33 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
32 Italy Index, EWI
31 Taiwan Index, EWT
30 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
30 European VIPERs, VGK
29 Global 100, IOO
28 Networking, IGN
28 EAFE Index, EFA
27 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
26 China 25 iS, FXI
26 Dividend SPDR, SDY
25 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
24 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
23 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
23 Technology SPDR, XLK
22 Latin Am 40, ILF
21 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
21 Technology DJ US, IYW
20 Spain Index, EWP
19 Financials VIPERs, VFH
18 Financial DJ US, IYF
18 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
17 Brazil Index, EWZ
16 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
16 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
15 Financial SPDR, XLF
14 India Earnings WTree, EPI
13 Financial Services DJ, IYG
13 Financial Preferred, PGF
12 Utilities SPDR, XLU
11 Bond, TIPS, TIP
11 India PS, PIN
10 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
9 Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
9 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
8 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
7 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
6 Bond, Corp, LQD
6 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
5 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
4 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
4 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
3 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
2 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
1 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0 Japan Index, EWJ
