A good story has certain elements that make it good. One of those is a complex structure. Developing characters working through a smaller story within the larger story is one element that can add complexity. In the story of the U.S. economic recovery, the consumer is the main character now. Advancing the plot depends on how the consumer develops as the story unfolds. Character development, however, is not simple. Good writing always shows the major developmental moments. Exceptional writing, however, creates a more subtle developmental influence happening beneath the main story line. Although this subtle influence is less obvious, it strongly contributes to advancing the plot.
For example, one obvious element in the U.S economic recovery is the fiscal health of the U.S. consumer. To show this, the media always points out the obvious, such as
Consumers spent more in March on furniture, electronics, and restaurant meals, pushing retail sales up 0.4 percent, the ninth consecutive gain.
Yes, the story moves forward if we know consumers spent more or less in the previous month, and, yes, the story moves forward when we understand the employment picture, since having a job means more spending money for the consumer, or not having a job means the opposite.
Government data showed weekly jobless claims rose unexpectedly, climbing back above 400,000, while U.S. core producer prices rose slightly faster than expected in March, pointing to increased inflation pressures.
The above picture is obviously complex, as it shows the main character (the consumer) in conflict. The contradictory nature of consumer spending rising while unemployment rises adds both complexity and suspense to the story. At this point, a good writer might soften the suspense a tad by allowing the reader to glimpse a potential outcome, a sense of relief for the reader.
Thanks to lower unemployment and fewer bankruptcies, the nation’s economic stress edged down in February as all but five states strengthened from January.
The above advances the plot, no doubt, but the conclusion is still in doubt for many obvious reasons. Global events, domestic issues, and other characters are still influencing the story, but in the end, the actions and resources of the main character determine the outcome. In this story, one developmental influence happening is an underreported aspect of the main character – the U.S. consumer balance sheet. Currently, U.S households have reduced their debt more than 5% since the peak of 2008, which means tens of billions in expendable income. Will this undercurrent be enough to resolve the conflict? Will it be enough to alter the employment picture such that the overall rate continues its downward trend?
Stay tuned in, as this story still has a ways to go before we come to the climax.
Trade in the day – Invest in your life …
