S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,332.41) rose 6.58 points or 0.50% on Friday to close at its highest level in 6 weeks. Trading volume rose 4% on the NYSE and 11% on the Nasdaq, but volume indicators continue to lag price indicators: volume has remain at low levels as price rebounded from its low of 3/16/11, possibly reflecting trader hesitation to chase prices higher. The short-term, 12-day trend obviously has been up, but that minor trend is overbought and losing upside momentum. The larger, intermediate-term trend over the past 6 weeks still may prove to be corrective.
VIX Fear Index fell below its 6-week range, hitting 16.44 intraday, and again confirming a return to bullish complacency.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above all-time highs, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above all-time highs, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell further below 28-year lows, again reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend.
Industrial SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 12-year highs and remains bullish.
Crude Oil price rose above 2-year highs, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Copper fell below 10-day lows, confirming a bearish short-term trend. Copper appears to be in an intermediate-term downside correction since peaking at 4.6575 on 2/15/11. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.74% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.59% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
4.60% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
0.90% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
5.00% , SNV , SYNOVUS
0.71% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
1.34% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
2.00% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
7.49% , CBE , COOPER INDS STK A
2.24% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
3.73% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
3.30% , SPLS , STAPLES
3.85% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
2.16% , XRX , XEROX
3.04% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
1.68% , F , FORD MOTOR
4.18% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
2.56% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
0.73% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
5.17% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
3.07% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.55% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
2.16% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
0.85% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.67% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
0.26% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.89% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
0.79% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.67% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.48% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
1.95% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
2.46% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.55% , FDX , FEDEX
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.07% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-3.02% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-0.11% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-0.99% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-3.86% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
-1.44% , Q , QWEST COMMUNICAT
-1.19% , MOLX , MOLEX
-1.10% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.63% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
-0.74% , JNK , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-1.22% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-1.09% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-0.47% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-0.52% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.23% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-2.95% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
-2.59% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
-0.53% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-1.39% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-0.92% , KR , KROGER
-1.13% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-1.08% , AA , ALCOA
-0.80% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-0.69% , AMGN , AMGEN
-1.40% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-0.41% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-1.04% , ALL , ALLSTATE
-1.98% , XLNX , XILINX
-0.65% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.26% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
-0.24% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-1.41% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-0.95% , TXN , TEXAS INSTRUMENT
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 2-year highs on 3/30/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Absolute price of XLE rose above 2-year closing price highs on 3/30/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 76.99, 2.90, 72.85, 68.73, 67.49, 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 83.27 and 91.42.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 4/1/11 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 4/1/11 and remains bullish. Support 35.08, 35.03, 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 38.22, 39.02, and 39.97.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 6-week highs on 3/31/11 and remains bullish. Absolute price also rose above 6-week highs on 4/1/11 and remains bullish. Support 38.06, 36.44, 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 39.64, 40.83 and 41.06.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) appears to be in a 6-week trading range and remains neutral. Absolute price also remains neutral. Support 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 39.58, 40.02, 40.13, and 40.70.
Technology (XLK) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) just gave a clear bearish signal on 3/22/11 when the 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio crossed below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLK fell below 14-week lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 24.87, 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 26.66, 27.09, 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) remains neutral. Support 31.43, 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 33.35, 33.37, and 33.74.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell further below 3-month lows on 3/31/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price broke down below 10-week lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 15.79, 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.51, 16.85, 17.20, and 17.87.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) remains neutral. The Ratio is close to turning bearish again, however. Absolute price is bullish. Support 28.71, 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 30.14 and 30.29.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 3/25/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price broke down below 3-month lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 30.74, 30.53, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.89, 33.00, 34.89, and 36.24.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been rising since making a low on 2/22/11. The trend is technically neutral, with the Ratio between 50- and 200-day SMAs.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 11-month lows on 3/16/11, confirming its preexisting bearish trend.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio is neutral between is 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell further below 28-year lows on 4/1/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose further above all-time highs on 4/1/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose further above all-time highs on 4/1/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose above 2-year highs on 4/1/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 102.70, 97.02, 96.22, 95.14, 87.09, 83.85, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 73.52, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 108.46, 110.30, 111.34, 120.42, 130.0, and 147.27.
Gold nearest futures contract price fell below the previous day’s low early on 4/1/11, raising doubts about its short-term trend. Gold has been consolidating gains since making a high at 1450 on 3/24/11. Support 1411.5, 1380.7, 1419.5, 1351.4, 1309.1, 1307.7, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1450.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 3/30/11 and, therefore, is upgraded from bearish to neutral.
Silver nearest futures contract price fell below the previous day’s low early on 4/1/11, raising doubts about its short-term trend. Silver has been consolidating gains since making a high at 38.18 on 3/24/11. Support 3.435, 33.565, 31.695, 31.61, 30.265, 29.635, 26.30, 24.98, and 22.84. Resistance: 38.18, 39.80, 40.50, and 50.35.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 27-year highs on 3/29/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Copper nearest futures contract price fell below 10-day lows on 4/1/11, confirming a bearish short-term trend. Copper appears to be in an intermediate-term downside correction since peaking at 4.6575 on 2/15/11. Strength in Copper suggests confidence in the economic outlook, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 4.212, 4.076, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: 4.554, 4.6495, and 4.6575.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below 3-week lows early on 4/1/11 but reversed to close higher. The short-term trend and the larger 6-week trend both appear uncertain. Support 119.11, 118.05, 117.04, 116.26, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 120.31, 122.08, 123.22, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been stuck in a neutral trading range most of the time since peaking on 2/8/11.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a rising trend since making a low on 8/24/10. This rising Relative Strength Ratio reflects fixed-income investors’ preference for inflation-protected TIPs over the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) since 8/24/10.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price showed early strength but gave up most of it to close only slightly higher on 4/1/11. The short-term trend appears weak. Long term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, confirming a major downtrend. Support 76.17, 75.505, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 76.87, 77.675, 78.98, 79.34, 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 51.6% Bulls versus 23.1% Bears as of 3/30/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio fell to 2.23, down from 2.26 the previous week, and now stands at its lowest level since November 2010. The Ratio also is down from peaks of 3.00 on 1/12/11, down from 3.06 on 4/21/10, and down from 3.36 on 1/13/10. No trend lasts forever, and so stock market newsletter advisors are gradually growing more cautious as the bull market matures. The Ratio’s 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.56, and the mean is 1.63.
VIX Fear Index fell below its 6-week range on 4/1/11, hitting 16.44 intraday, and again confirming a return to bullish complacency. This follows a brief spike up to an intraday peak of 31.28 on 3/16/11. Fear was short-lived. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 2/17/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. While other Dow Theorists were fooled by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010 and called a “Bear Market”, my interpretation of the Dow Theory has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Tide Trend every day since 7/23/09.
On 4/1/11, both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price lows of the previous 6 weeks, confirming an uptrend for the short-term Minor Ripple Trend. On 3/16/11, both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their closing price lows of the previous 10 weeks, confirming a downtrend for the intermediate-term Secondary Reaction Trend. Most other indexes confirmed this downtrend
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,332.41) rose 6.58 points or 0.50% on Friday to close at its highest level in 6 weeks. Trading volume rose 4% on the NYSE and 11% on the Nasdaq, but volume indicators continue to lag price indicators: volume has remain at low levels as price rebounded from its low of 3/16/11, possibly reflecting trader hesitation to chase prices higher. The short-term, 12-day trend obviously has been up, but that minor trend is overbought and losing upside momentum. The larger, intermediate-term trend over the past 6 weeks still may prove to be corrective.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1344.07, high of 2/18/11
1337.65, high of 4/1/11
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1323.74, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1305.26, low of 3/29/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.07% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.46% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.21% Brazil Index, EWZ
2.16% Russia MV, RSX
2.16% South Korea Index, EWY
2.14% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.81% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.74% South Africa Index, EZA
1.74% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.66% Germany Index, EWG
1.63% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.60% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.60% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.52% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.50% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.43% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.40% Mexico Index, EWW
1.37% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.34% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.34% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.34% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.29% China 25 iS, FXI
1.28% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.27% European VIPERs, VGK
1.20% Belgium Index, EWK
1.20% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.19% France Index, EWQ
1.16% Australia Index, EWA
1.14% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.13% Spain Index, EWP
1.10% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.05% Dividend International, PID
1.03% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.03% Austria Index, EWO
1.01% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.95% Canada Index, EWC
0.95% EAFE Index, EFA
0.93% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.92% Energy Global, IXC
0.92% India PS, PIN
0.92% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.90% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.88% Sweden Index, EWD
0.87% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.87% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.85% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.85% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.84% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.81% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.79% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.78% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.77% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.75% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.74% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.73% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.70% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.70% Italy Index, EWI
0.69% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.67% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.67% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.65% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.65% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.65% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.64% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.63% Global 100, IOO
0.62% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.60% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.56% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.56% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.56% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.54% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.54% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.52% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.51% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.51% Singapore Index, EWS
0.50% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.49% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.48% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.48% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.48% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.46% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.45% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.44% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.44% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.43% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.43% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.43% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.43% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.42% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.41% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.40% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.40% Energy DJ, IYE
0.39% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.38% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.37% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.37% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.36% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.33% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.30% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.30% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.30% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.30% Water Resources, PHO
0.29% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.28% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.28% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.28% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.26% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.24% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.24% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.24% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.23% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.22% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.22% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.21% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.17% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.15% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.08% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.07% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.07% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.06% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.05% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.05% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.07% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-0.15% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.16% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.20% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.20% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.23% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.27% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.29% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.30% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.47% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.65% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.74% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.74% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-1.10% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.33% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.41% Networking, IGN
