S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,313.80) rose 4.14 points or 0.32% on Friday. SPX rose above the highs of the previous 11 trading days. Trading volume declined to its lowest level of the year on Friday, possibly reflecting trader hesitation to chase prices higher. SPX faces chart congestion (resistance) in the 1319-1333 zone, which could pose a challenge to the current short-term uptrend.
The market has climbed a “Wall of Worry” over the past 7 trading days. The Art of Contrary Opinion may be at work here, since many turned bearish when SPX broke down below 12-week lows on 3/16/11, confirmed by the great majority of indexes and indicators. By now, many weak-hands traders must have been squeezed into covering their shorts. Once that short-covering source of buying power is exhausted, the larger, intermediate-term trend still may prove to be corrective.
Financial SPDR Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 3-month lows and remains bearish.
Consumer Staples SPDR Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks and remains neutral. The Ratio is close to turning bearish again, however.
Utilities SPDR Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks and remains bearish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows, again reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend.
Crude Oil and Gold showed minor weakness which could signal price pullbacks.
U.S. Treasury Bond price fell below 8-day lows, confirming a minor price pullback.
The U.S. dollar rose above 4-day highs, confirming a minor 4-day uptrend.
VIX Fear Index fell below its 5-week range, hitting 17.07 intraday, and again confirming a rapid return to bullish complacency.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.41% , BC , BRUNSWICK
8.63% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
3.25% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
0.59% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
0.86% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
0.59% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
0.69% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
0.42% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
0.91% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
0.35% , SWH , Software H, SWH
3.27% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
1.98% , PMR , Retail, PMR
0.63% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
3.50% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
4.00% , XRX , XEROX
0.40% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
1.69% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
0.90% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
0.56% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
1.11% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
0.89% , PWY , Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
2.23% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
0.41% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
0.44% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
0.35% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
2.69% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
0.55% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
1.55% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
1.31% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
2.33% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
2.15% , EL , Estee Lauder
1.56% , ORCL , ORACLE
1.43% , TMK , TORCHMARK
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-11.23% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-0.60% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-4.96% , DRI , DARDEN REST
-4.30% , DYN , DYNEGY
-0.82% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
-2.60% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-1.57% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.92% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-2.13% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
-0.64% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-0.73% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-1.27% , MI , MARSHAL & ILSLEY
-1.36% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-0.73% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.37% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
-0.58% , DVY , Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-1.30% , TGT , TARGET
-0.89% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-0.16% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-0.29% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
-0.57% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.56% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-0.38% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.16% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-0.39% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-2.47% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-1.21% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
-0.66% , ASH , ASHLAND
-0.47% , VIA.B , VIACOM STK B
-1.52% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-1.22% , GOOG , Google
-0.95% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.74% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 2-year highs on 3/22/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Absolute price of XLE rose above 2-year closing price highs on 3/7/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 72.90, 72.85, 68.73, 67.49, 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 79.22, 83.27 and 91.42.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 5-week highs on 3/21/11 and remains bullish. Absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 3/22/11 and is neutral. Support 35.08, 35.03, 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 38.09, 39.02, and 39.97.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) appears to be in a 6-weeks trading range and remains neutral. Absolute price also remains neutral. Support 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 39.58, 40.02, 40.13, and 40.70.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 3/23/11, turning bullish again. In addition, absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA. Support 38.06, 36.44, 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 39.64, 40.83 and 41.06.
Technology (XLK) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) just gave a clear bearish signal on 3/22/11 when the 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio crossed below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLK fell below 14-week lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 24.87, 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 26.66, 27.09, 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 3-month lows on 3/25/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price broke down below 10-week lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 15.79, 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.46, 16.85, 17.20, and 17.87.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 3/21/11 and is close to turning bearish again. Absolute price remains neutral. Support 31.43, 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 33.23, 33.37, and 33.74.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 3/25/11 and remains neutral. The Ratio is close to turning bearish again, however. Absolute price remains neutral. Support 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.96 and 30.29.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 3/25/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price broke down below 3-month lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 30.53, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.89, 33.00, 34.89, and 36.24.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been rising since making a low on 2/22/11. The trend is technically neutral, with the Ratio between 50- and 200-day SMAs.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 11-month lows on 3/16/11, confirming its preexisting bearish trend.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio is neutral between is 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 3/25/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 11-week highs on 3/21/11 and remains bullish. Long term, the ratio rose above 20-year highs on 12/21/10, which confirmed a bullish trend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above all-time highs on 3/21/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. The ratio turned bullish from neutral on 2/7/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below the previous day’s low on 3/25/11, suggesting the possibility of a downside correction. Watch for resistance near recent highs at 106.69 and 106.95. The larger trend remains bullish: Oil rose above 2-year highs on 3/7/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 97.02, 96.22, 95.14, 87.09, 83.85, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 73.52, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 106.69, 106.95, 110.30, 111.34, 120.42, 130.0, and 147.27.
Gold nearest futures contract price fell below the previous 2 days’ lows on 3/25/11, suggesting the possibility of a downside correction. Support 1380.7, 1419.5, 1351.4, 1309.1, 1307.7, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1448.4.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 3/23/11 and, therefore, is upgraded from bearish to neutral.
Silver nearest futures contract price showed an Inside Day of consolidation on 3/25/11, the day after rising above its 31-year high on 3/24/11 and confirming its major uptrend. Support 33.565, 31.695, 31.61, 30.265, 29.635, 26.30, 24.98, and 22.84. Resistance: 38.18, 39.80, 40.50, and 50.35.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 27-year highs on 3/25/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Copper nearest futures contract price showed an Inside Day of consolidation on 3/25/11, the day after rising above its 2-week highs on 3/24/11. Further consolidation could be possible. Strength in Copper suggests confidence in the economic outlook, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 4.2665, 4.076, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: 4.554, 4.6495, and 4.6575.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below 8-day lows on 3/25/11, confirming a minor price pullback. The Bond still appears to be in a minor consolidation pattern with support at 119.24. The larger 6-week trend still may be bullish. Support 119.24, 118.05, 117.04, 116.26, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 122.08, 123.22, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) turned neutral on 3/10/11 by falling below 6-week lows and below its 50-day SMA. JNK absolute price also turned neutral by falling below 7-week lows and below its 50-day SMA.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a rising trend since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising Relative Strength Ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected TIPs at a relatively more subdued pace since 8/24/10, compared to the more severe price drop of the 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF).
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price rose above 4-day highs on 3/25/11, confirming a minor 4-day uptrend. Long term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, confirming a major downtrend. Support 75.505, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 76.405, 77.675, 78.98, 79.34, 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 50.6% Bulls versus 22.4% Bears as of 3/23/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 2.26, down from 2.34 the previous week and down from 3.00 on 1/12/11. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.56, and the mean is 1.63.
VIX Fear Index fell below its 5-week range on 3/25/11, hitting 17.07 intraday, and again confirming a return to bullish complacency. This follows a brief spike up to an intraday peak of 31.28 on 3/16/11. Fear was short-lived. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 2/17/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. While other Dow Theorists were fooled by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010 and called a “Bear Market”, my interpretation of the Dow Theory has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Tide Trend every day since 7/23/09.
On 3/16/11, both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average fell below their closing price lows of the previous 10 weeks. This bearish confirmation raises the possibility of a more severe Secondary Reaction downside correction that could stretch out further in time and extend further downward in price.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,313.80) rose 4.14 points or 0.32% on Friday. SPX rose above the highs of the previous 11 trading days. Trading volume declined to its lowest level of the year on Friday, possibly reflecting trader hesitation to chase prices higher. SPX faces chart congestion (resistance) in the 1319-1333 zone, which could pose a challenge to the current short-term uptrend.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1344.07, high of 2/18/11
1332.28, high of 3/3/11
1319.18, high of 3/25/11
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.24% South Korea Index, EWY
0.97% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.90% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.89% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.87% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.85% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.83% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.80% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.79% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.78% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.78% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.76% Water Resources, PHO
0.75% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.74% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.73% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.71% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.66% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.65% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.64% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.62% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.61% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.61% Energy DJ, IYE
0.60% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.59% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.54% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.54% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.53% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.49% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.48% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.48% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.47% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.46% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.46% Energy Global, IXC
0.43% Australia Index, EWA
0.42% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.41% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.41% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.38% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.38% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.37% Singapore Index, EWS
0.37% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.37% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.36% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.35% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.34% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.34% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.31% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.31% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.31% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.28% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.28% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.28% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.28% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.26% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.26% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.25% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.24% South Africa Index, EZA
0.24% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.22% India PS, PIN
0.21% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.18% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.18% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.17% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.15% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.14% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.10% Russia MV, RSX
0.09% China 25 iS, FXI
0.08% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.08% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.07% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.07% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.05% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.04% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.03% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.03% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.03% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.02% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.00% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.00% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.02% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.02% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.03% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.04% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.05% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.06% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.06% Dividend International, PID
-0.07% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.07% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.07% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.09% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.11% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.14% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.15% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.16% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.17% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.17% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.17% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.18% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-0.21% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.25% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.27% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.29% Global 100, IOO
-0.35% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.36% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.40% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.41% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.45% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.47% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.51% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.52% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.54% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.54% Canada Index, EWC
-0.57% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.58% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.61% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.64% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.66% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.67% Germany Index, EWG
-0.73% Austria Index, EWO
-0.73% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.80% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.89% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.90% France Index, EWQ
-0.95% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.99% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.99% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.03% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.04% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.04% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.06% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.10% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.22% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.31% Networking, IGN
-1.49% Italy Index, EWI
-1.52% Spain Index, EWP
-1.57% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-2.41% Japan Index, EWJ