By ForexMansion.com
Riskier assets gained traction and were able to perform well during the majority of the past week. Equity markets, along with commodities lead the charge higher and pushed commodity oriented currencies higher as well. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar bounced back this week with the AUD/USD pushing an all time high. Commodity prices on precious metals also made new all time highs, specifically in Gold and Silver. Next week market participants will focus on:
- Monday March 28, 2011 – US Pending Home Sales (1400 GMT)
US Pending Home Sales tracks residential housing contract activity of existing single-family homes. The Pending Home Sales report is an advanced read on trends in the US housing market. Housing is typically correlated to the overall state of the economy; particularly indicative of economic turning points. AFter worse than expected housing starts, new home sales and existing home sales, the risk is to the upside that Pending Homes Sales are better than expected. This would help the dollar and increase rates.
- Tuesday March 29, 2011 – German Consumer Prices (700 GMT)
The German CPI assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in Germany , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. The ECB has taken a hawkish tone and has alerted the markets that it would increase rates to dampen inflation. The Risk is that inflation is much lower than expected, and the Euro declines.
- Tuesday March 29, 2011 – UK GDP (930 GMT)
UK GDP is an indicator for broad overall growth in the United Kingdom. Robust UK GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity, and therefore a high demand for currency. Economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressure, which generally prompts monetary authorities to increase interest rates. The BOE is in a “wait and see” mode and GDP is one of the indicators that they are waiting on.
- Wednesday March 30, 2011 – EU Consumer Confidence (500 GMT)
EU Consumer Confidence measures consumer sentiment in the Euro-zone nations. The figure is the result of Euro-zone consumer surveys personal finance, the job market, the likelihood of saving and expectations on the economy. High levels of consumer confidence bode well for the economy, indicating consumers are more likely to increase consumption spurring growth and potentially sparking inflation.
- Thursday March 31, 2011 – German Unemployment Rate and Change (755 GMT)
The unemployment rate is the percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks. This number is usually a market moving event.
- Thursday March 31, 2011 – Japan Tankan Report (2350 GMT)
The Tankan report of large manufacturers tracks overall business conditions for large manufacturing enterprises. The Tankan’s main component, the Large Manufacturer’s Index is indicative of the sentiment of leading manufacturing companies. The index uses zero as the centerline between positive and negative outlooks; the farther the value from zero the stronger the sentiment. This is the first report post the disaster in Japan and is likely going to show a depressed report.
- Friday April 1, 2011 – EMU PMI (900 GMT)
The Euro-zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) assesses business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Because the manufacturing sector represents nearly a quarter of total Euro-zone GDP, the Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI is both a significant and timely indicator of business conditions and the general health of the economy.
- Friday April 1, 2011 – US Non Farm Payroll (1230 GMT)
The non-farm payroll is the monthly change in employment excluding the farming sector. Non-farm payrolls is the most closely watched indicator in the Employment Situation, considered the most comprehensive measure of job creation in the US. Such a distinction makes the NFP figure highly significant, given the importance of labor to the US economy. Investors expected another positive number and given the improvements in jobless claims an unhealthy number will cause a severe market reaction.