Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research

 

This is the outlook was issued to clients last week (15 March):

(chart from Australia Bureau of Meteorology)

 

While the cold SST anomalies in the Pacific have backed off a bit since last month, the February Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) exhibited an increase (up to 22.3) over the January 19.9 index value (see the chart above).  We may be seeing a transition away from the strong La Nina pattern, however, there are still La Nina drivers in place, and these need to be considered in the outlook for the next 1-2 months.  A slow weakening is anticipated, so while Pacific equatorial anomalies may be slowly transitioning towards the weak to moderate classification (Nino3.4), the SOI is still entrenched in positive phase, and there will still be La Nina conditions forcing the broader global pattern. 

For growers, the biggest concern weatherwise remains on the wheat side, as we still have some reason to pay closer attention to the conditions surrounding Northern Hemisphere winter crops coming out of dormancy, as well as spring planting conditions in several origins.  We note that some forecasters have adjusted their seasonal outlook, keeping a strong La Nina as the driving physical factor for the next 3-5 months; however, in spite of the recent SOI behavior, we are seeing more LN indicators break down which supports a transition to neutral period over the 1-2 month time frame.

This view was echoed by the IRI ENSO Update, from of 17 March.
 

 

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