Based on prices as of the close on Friday, March 11, 2011.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 126 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Silver Miners Global X, SIL
98 Energy SPDR, XLE
97 Energy VIPERs, VDE
96 Energy DJ, IYE
96 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
95 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
94 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
94 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
93 Commodity Tracking, DBC
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, March 11, 2011.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Silver Miners Global X, SIL
98 Energy SPDR, XLE
97 Energy VIPERs, VDE
96 Energy DJ, IYE
96 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
95 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
94 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
94 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
93 Commodity Tracking, DBC
92 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
92 Russia MV, RSX
91 Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
90 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
89 Energy Global, IXC
89 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
88 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
87 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
87 Networking, IGN
86 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
85 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
85 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
84 Industrial SPDR, XLI
83 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
82 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
82 MidCap Russell, IWR
81 Canada Index, EWC
80 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
80 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
79 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
78 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
77 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
77 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
76 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
75 Microcap Russell, IWC
75 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
74 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
73 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
73 REIT Wilshire, RWR
72 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
71 Sweden Index, EWD
70 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
70 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
69 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
68 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
68 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
67 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
66 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
65 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
65 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
64 Value VIPERs, VTV
63 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
63 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
62 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
61 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
61 Growth VIPERs, VUG
60 Germany Index, EWG
59 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
58 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
58 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
57 Indonesia MV, IDX
56 Water Resources, PHO
56 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
55 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
54 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
54 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
53 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
52 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
51 Technology DJ US, IYW
51 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
50 Mexico Index, EWW
49 Malaysia Index, EWM
49 Materials SPDR, XLB
48 Netherlands Index, EWN
47 Austria Index, EWO
46 Technology SPDR, XLK
46 Biotech SPDR, XBI
45 Financial SPDR, XLF
44 Financials VIPERs, VFH
44 South Korea Index, EWY
43 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
42 Financial DJ US, IYF
42 South Africa Index, EZA
41 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
40 Dividend SPDR, SDY
39 Switzerland Index, EWL
39 Taiwan Index, EWT
38 Dividend International, PID
37 Belgium Index, EWK
37 France Index, EWQ
36 Financial Services DJ, IYG
35 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
35 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
34 Global 100, IOO
33 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
32 United Kingdom Index, EWU
32 EMU Europe Index, EZU
31 Health Care SPDR, XLV
30 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
30 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
29 EAFE Index, EFA
28 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
27 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
27 Italy Index, EWI
26 Hong Kong Index, EWH
25 Utilities SPDR, XLU
25 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
24 Emerging Markets, EEM
23 Australia Index, EWA
23 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
22 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
21 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
20 European VIPERs, VGK
20 Japan Index, EWJ
19 Financial Preferred, PGF
18 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
18 Singapore Index, EWS
17 Latin Am 40, ILF
16 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
15 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
15 China 25 iS, FXI
14 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
13 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
13 Bond, TIPS, TIP
12 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
11 Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
11 Spain Index, EWP
10 Brazil Index, EWZ
9 Bond, Corp, LQD
8 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
8 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
7 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
6 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
6 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
5 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
4 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
4 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
3 India PS, PIN
2 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1 India Earnings WTree, EPI
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
