Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research

Dryness across eastern China in recent months is likely to have an acute effect on the current winter wheat crop, and there are also anticipated effects on the coming spring wheat & corn plantings.  The above map from the Foreign Agriculture Service shows that the drought is most severe in Shandong, Hebei and Henan provinces.  These three provinces are among the largest corn producing regions in China; this is also the heart of the wheat growing region.  For most of the North China Plain region, December and January precipitation has been low (see WTI map below of Jan prcp vs. normal), with many key agricultural regions receiving between 20%-40% of their typical seasonal rainfall.  In addition, winter snow cover totals have been low, which in effect removes a layer of protection for dormant crops.

 

The dry pattern is not expected to break in the short term, so the first impact will be on the winter wheat crop, which will start to come out of dormancy in late March.  We so see some improvement in the extended forecast, but given the severity of the current drought, there will certainly be a lag before vegetation and soils across the affected provinces start to exhibit a positive response.

Chinese agricultural officials have made a recent statement, downplaying the severity of the drought with respect to crop impact.  At this stage, we do not agree with this assessment.  The lack of moisture may take 1-1.5% off of yield expectations for the current winter wheat crop, and there will also be a likely limitation on the spring plantings, which typically commence in early March for wheat, and late March/early April for corn.