86-86.50 was my target from yesterday. I think that was the dip to buy. Be willing to take a dollar heat, down to 85. although. I think you hold your longs with a target to sell 89.35 and then 90.15. Hope you’ve been following this. We have scalped 8 bucks out of crude in the past week.
Tomorrow is USDA S/D number. Again, I expect, if there is a surprise, it will be bearish. We have not had significant pain for the longs in over 6 weeks now. I believe they need to be tested, and sooner or later they will be tested. I’d like to see that happen tomorrow. Especially corn. Beans still has a ways to go. Wheat has rallied 80 cents since it tripped my buy signal settling above 8.00 in WH. Patience has given us an 80 sent rally to take advantage of.
If CH can not get the 7.00 print this week, after this number, then I think we have a good 80 cent haircut for the longs. Corn has rallied 1.60 since the November 23rd low, just before Thanksgiving. Corn has to buy acres, but markets don’t go straight up. I’d have a small short position going into tomorrow morning’s USDA S/D number.
I am friendly wheat. Stay long with a trailing stop. Stay long beans, they just keep trekking higher, however, again, I’d want to have a small short position going into this number. Beans have rallied 2.69 cents in 3 months, with no correction.. I just can’t believe there isn’t a 1.50 slap down looming out there.
Anyhow, like always, have a stop for your futures, or buy cheap puts to capitalize on this move. March puts have a shelf life of 10 more days. Its a very good way to put a position on with a known down side and potentially 4 times pay out to the upside.
That is all.
CER
