The following ETFs, listed in order of major trend relative strength, closed above previous 2-year closing price highs, thereby confirming their preexisting major uptrends:
Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
Agriculture DB PS, DBA
Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
Commodity Tracking, DBC
Technology DJ US, IYW
Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
Canada Index, EWC
Technology SPDR, XLK
Real Estate US DJ, IYR
United Kingdom Index, EWU
DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
Japan Index, EWJ
Dividend International, PID
Pacific VIPERs, VPL
Energy SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 15-month highs, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Consumer Staples SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below 2-year lows and remains bearish.
Utilities SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 4-year lows and remains bearish.
CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
19.15% , UIS , UNISYS
15.81% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
8.64% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
5.67% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
4.54% , NVDA , NVIDIA
4.43% , PWER , POWER ONE
2.25% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.56% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
2.36% , AYE , ALLEGHENY ENERGY
2.45% , VIA.B , VIACOM STK B
6.84% , GCI , GANNETT
3.67% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
1.88% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
1.87% , QLGC , QLOGIC
2.46% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
0.16% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
1.53% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
3.39% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
1.13% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
2.49% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
2.13% , NBR , NABORS
1.23% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
0.68% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
2.96% , ADSK , AUTODESK
0.12% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
3.12% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
0.76% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
2.07% , NCR , NCR
1.16% , YHOO , YAHOO
0.11% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.32% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
1.05% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
1.31% , NUE , NUCOR
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.27% , HSP , HOSPIRA
-8.46% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-5.70% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-5.59% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
-0.73% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
-0.41% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-5.04% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-3.93% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-2.36% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
-2.18% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
-3.36% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-2.13% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-2.52% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-2.36% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
-2.16% , TGT , TARGET
-2.45% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-0.56% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-2.73% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-2.42% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-1.23% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-3.09% , AN , AUTONATION
-2.96% , LOW , LOWES
-2.08% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-3.35% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-0.47% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.88% , PCG , PG&E
-1.33% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.21% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-2.99% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-0.41% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
-2.44% , AFL , AFLAC
-1.58% , FO , FORTUNE BRANDS
-0.45% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 15-month highs on 2/2/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Absolute price of XLE rose above 2-year highs on 2/1/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 68.73, 67.49, 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 78.10, 83.27, and 91.42.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 2-year highs on 1/31/11 and remains bullish. Absolute closed above 2-year closing price highs on 1/27/11 and remains bullish. Support 35.38, 35.03, 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 39.02 and 39.97.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 2/1/11 thereby turning bullish again. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 2/1/11 and remains bullish. Support 37.24, 36.99, 36.54, 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 40.15 and 41.06.
Technology (XLK) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/25/11, thereby turning bullish again. This RS ratio rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10, which was a bullish confirmation of the primary uptrend. Absolute price of XLK closed above 3-year closing price highs on 2/2/11 and remains bullish. Support 25.65, 25.53, 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 months on 2/1/11, reconfirming its preexisting intermediate-term correction. The ratio crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/27/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 1/27/11, which was a bullish confirmation for the longer term trend. Support 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 38.41, 39.09, 40.13, and 40.70.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/8/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price of XLF rose above 9-month highs on 2/1/11 and remains bullish. Support 16.19, 16.03, 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 1/31/11 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price rose above 9-month highs on 1/12/11 and remains bullish. Support 31.43, 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.36, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 2/2/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/28/11, thereby turning neutral for the short term. Support 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.72 and 30.29.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 4-year lows on 2/2/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/3/11 and is technically bullish. Support 31.23, 30.51, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.21 and 32.40.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell further below 7-month lows on 1/28/11. The relationship of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA is still neutral—but it is heading toward a bearish signal in days ahead.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) turned neutral from bearish on 2/1/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 50-day SMA on 1/20/11, turning neutral for the short term. Long term, the ratio rose above 10-year highs on 1/18/11, confirming a bullish Primary Tide uptrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above 3-month highs on 1/25/11, confirming an intermediate-term, secondary reaction to the upside. The ratio rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/4/11, thereby turning neutral technically. Long term, the ratio fell below 28-year lows on 12/3/10, confirming a major bearish trend. Big caps had been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, from 3/29/2000 to 12/3/10.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/19/11, turning neutral for the intermediate term. Long term, the ratio rose above 20-year highs on 12/21/10, which confirmed a bullish trend.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/20/11, turning neutral for the intermediate term. Long term, the ratio rose above 15-year highs on 12/17/10, which confirmed a bullish trend.
CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs on 2/2/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price appears to be consolidating gains after testing the top end of its trading range and resistance near the previous high of 92.57 on 1/31/11. Long term, Oil rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 85.11, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 92.57, 93.46, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price appears to be consolidating losses after falling below the lows of the previous 9 weeks on 1/27/11 and reconfirming a short-term correction. Long term, Gold rose above previous all-time highs on 12/7/10, confirming a bullish major trend. Support 1307.7, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1347.5, 1378.9, 1392.9, and 1432.5.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell below 8-month lows on 1/25/11, reconfirming a bearish trend for the intermediate term. The ratio has been trending lower since making a top on 12/6/10.
Silver nearest futures contract price hesitated after a typical short-term 3-day bounce. Intermediate term, Silver fell below the lows of the previous 10 weeks on 1/28/11, confirming a downside correction that may not yet be complete. Long term, Silver rose above previous 30-year highs on 1/3/11, confirming a bullish major trend. Support 26.30, 24.98, and 22.84. Resistance: 27.95, 29.845 and 31.275.
Silver/Gold Ratio crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/28/11, turning bullish again. Long term, the ratio rose above 3-year highs on 12/31/10, confirming a bullish major trend.
Copper nearest futures contract price broke out above multi-year highs, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 4.208, 4.204, 4.08, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: none.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price appears to be consolidating losses in a trading range over the past several weeks between 119.06 and 122.07. The bond contract fell below the lows of the previous 7 months on 12/15/10, confirming a bearish major trend. Support 119.06, 118.21, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 122.07, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) remains bullish, above 50- and 200-day SMAs. JNK absolute price also remains bullish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a rising trend since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising Relative Strength Ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected TIPs at a relatively more subdued pace, compared to the 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) since 8/24/10.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price consolidated losses after closing below the closing price lows of the previous 11 weeks on 2/2/11, reconfirming an intermediate-term downtrend. Long term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, confirming a downtrend. Support 76.175, 75.23, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 78.47, 79.34, 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 52.7% Bulls versus 22.0% Bears as of 2/2/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 2.40, down from 3.00 on 1/12/11, and nearly one standard deviation above the long-term, 20-year mean. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.55, and the mean is 1.63.
VIX Fear Index rose above 8-week highs to 20.08 on 1/28/11, up from 15.37 on 1/14/11, perhaps reflecting moderately increasing concern about a downside correction among options players. VIX rose to 23.84 during the 4%, 7-day shakeout in November 2010 and rose to 48.20 during the downside correction in May 2010, so the current level of VIX appears relatively insignificant. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 1/12/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. While other Dow Theorists were fooled by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010 and called a “Bear Market”, my interpretation of the Dow Theory has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Tide Trend every day since 7/23/09.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1304.03) eased slightly lower after rising above the highs of the previous 2-years on 2/1/11–and thereby reconfirming its preexisting Bullish Primary Tide Trend.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1275.10, low of 1/28/11
1271.26, low of 1/20/11
1261.70, low of 1/7/11
1251.48, low of 12/27/10
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.25% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.24% Networking, IGN
1.13% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.99% Japan Index, EWJ
0.97% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.71% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.61% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.61% Mexico Index, EWW
0.52% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.51% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.40% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.33% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.29% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.29% Singapore Index, EWS
0.28% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.27% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.26% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.23% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.20% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.18% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.16% Canada Index, EWC
0.13% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.11% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.11% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.03% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.03% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.02% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.02% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.01% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.00% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.00% Dividend International, PID
0.00% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.04% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.05% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.05% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.05% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.06% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.07% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.07% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.07% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.07% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.08% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.08% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.08% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.08% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.09% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.11% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.12% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.12% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.12% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.14% Global 100, IOO
-0.14% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.14% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.15% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.15% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.16% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.16% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.17% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-0.17% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.18% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.18% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.18% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.19% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.19% Energy Global, IXC
-0.19% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.19% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.20% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.20% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.20% Russia MV, RSX
-0.20% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.20% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.20% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.21% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.21% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.21% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.23% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.23% Germany Index, EWG
-0.24% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.24% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.25% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.27% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.27% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.28% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.28% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.29% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.30% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.31% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.31% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.31% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.31% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.32% Australia Index, EWA
-0.32% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.33% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.34% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.34% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.38% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.38% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.38% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.38% Spain Index, EWP
-0.39% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.39% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.40% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.41% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.43% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.45% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.46% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.47% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.48% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.48% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.52% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.55% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.57% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.58% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.59% Italy Index, EWI
-0.60% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.63% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.64% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.65% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.65% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.70% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.73% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.75% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.78% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.78% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.82% France Index, EWQ
-0.91% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.93% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.94% India PS, PIN
-1.12% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.33% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.42% Austria Index, EWO
-1.62% Water Resources, PHO
-1.74% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.75% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.97% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-2.01% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.52% Sweden Index, EWD
