Based on prices as of the close on Friday, January 21, 2011.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 111 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation.Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
98 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
97 Russia MV, RSX
96 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
96 Energy SPDR, XLE
95 Energy DJ, IYE
94 Energy VIPERs, VDE
94 South Korea Index, EWY
93 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, January 21, 2011.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
98 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
97 Russia MV, RSX
96 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
96 Energy SPDR, XLE
95 Energy DJ, IYE
94 Energy VIPERs, VDE
94 South Korea Index, EWY
93 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
92 Taiwan Index, EWT
91 Sweden Index, EWD
91 Networking, IGN
90 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
89 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
89 Industrial SPDR, XLI
88 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
87 Malaysia Index, EWM
86 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
86 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
85 Mexico Index, EWW
84 Energy Global, IXC
84 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
83 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
82 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
81 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
81 Commodity Tracking, DBC
80 Hong Kong Index, EWH
79 MidCap Russell, IWR
79 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
78 Technology DJ US, IYW
77 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
76 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
76 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
75 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
74 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
74 Microcap Russell, IWC
73 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
72 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
71 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
71 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
70 Germany Index, EWG
69 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
69 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
68 Growth VIPERs, VUG
67 Austria Index, EWO
66 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
66 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
65 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
64 Technology SPDR, XLK
64 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
63 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
62 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
61 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
61 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
60 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
59 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
59 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
58 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
57 Materials SPDR, XLB
56 Canada Index, EWC
56 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
55 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
54 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
54 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
53 Value VIPERs, VTV
52 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
51 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
51 REIT Wilshire, RWR
50 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
49 Singapore Index, EWS
49 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
48 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
47 Financials VIPERs, VFH
46 Water Resources, PHO
46 Financial SPDR, XLF
45 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
44 Financial Services DJ, IYG
44 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
43 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
42 Financial DJ US, IYF
41 Netherlands Index, EWN
41 Global 100, IOO
40 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
39 Switzerland Index, EWL
39 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
38 France Index, EWQ
37 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
36 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
36 Dividend International, PID
35 Emerging Markets, EEM
34 EAFE Index, EFA
34 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
33 Latin Am 40, ILF
32 United Kingdom Index, EWU
31 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
31 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
30 South Africa Index, EZA
29 EMU Europe Index, EZU
29 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
28 Japan Index, EWJ
27 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
26 Biotech SPDR, XBI
26 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
25 Italy Index, EWI
24 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
24 Australia Index, EWA
23 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
22 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
21 Dividend SPDR, SDY
21 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
20 Health Care SPDR, XLV
19 European VIPERs, VGK
19 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
18 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
17 Belgium Index, EWK
16 Brazil Index, EWZ
16 Spain Index, EWP
15 Utilities SPDR, XLU
14 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
14 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
13 Financial Preferred, PGF
12 China 25 iS, FXI
11 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
11 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
10 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
9 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
9 India Earnings WTree, EPI
8 India PS, PIN
7 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
6 Bond, Corp, LQD
6 Bond, TIPS, TIP
5 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
4 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
4 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
3 Indonesia MV, IDX
2 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
1 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
