Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Lines for the NYSE and Nasdaq rose to new multi-month highs, reconfirming a broad-based bullish trend for the stock market.
The Small-Cap Russell 2000 Index and the Value Line Geometric Index absolute prices both closed above 2-year closing price highs on 12/27/10 and remain bullish.
Materials stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 11-month highs and remains bullish. Absolute price also remains bullish.
Consumer Discretionary stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/27/10, thereby turning neutral.
Junk Bonds ETF (JNK) absolute price rose above 6-week highs on 12/27/10, which is bullish for the short term. JNK price rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish for the longer term.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/27/10, thereby turning neutral.
The U.S. dollar price fell below 4-day lows on 12/27/10, suggesting a short-term downtrend.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.61% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
9.30% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
4.51% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
2.07% , A , AGILENT TECH
2.35% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
0.13% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
1.44% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
1.14% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.86% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
2.39% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
0.20% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
1.32% , EFX , EQUIFAX
0.51% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.39% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.92% , C , CITIGROUP
0.26% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
1.08% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
0.40% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
0.96% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
0.33% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
0.29% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
0.39% , TNB , THOMAS & BETTS
0.32% , SWH , Software H, SWH
1.19% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
2.80% , DLX , DELUXE
0.44% , FAST , Fastenal Company
1.40% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
0.44% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
1.19% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
0.32% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.43% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
0.21% , KG , KING PHARM
0.15% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.01% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-0.41% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-0.77% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-0.27% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
-0.72% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-0.40% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-1.14% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
-1.24% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.74% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.73% , VXF , Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
-1.17% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-0.82% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
-0.23% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-0.14% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-0.63% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-0.58% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-0.60% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-0.86% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
-1.12% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
-0.25% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-1.52% , CTAS , CINTAS
-0.90% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-1.26% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-0.69% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.51% , XRX , XEROX
-0.56% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.88% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
-0.87% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
-1.11% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-0.57% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
-0.35% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.29% , XLY , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.14% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 12-month highs on 12/6/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose further above 2-year highs on 12/23/10 and remains bullish. Support 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 69.95 and 78.10.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 11-month highs on 12/27/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/23/10 and remains bullish. Support 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 39.00, 40.15, and 41.06.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/27/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 12/7/10 and remains bullish. Support 37.15, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 37.88, 38.25, and 39.09.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 2-year highs on 12/16/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/22/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 35.00 and 36.16.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 8-week lows on 12/16/10 and turned neutral for the secondary trend. This RS ratio rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10, which was a bullish confirmation of the primary uptrend. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 25.32 and 25.69.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/8/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price turned bullish as of 12/22/10 when the rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell further below 7-month lows on 12/27/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/16/10 and remains bullish. Support 29.23, 29.10, 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 30.29.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 12/9/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Thanks to a bounce over the past 3-days, absolute price of XLV is technically bullish. Support 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 31.79, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 7-month lows on 12/21/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU fell below 4-year lows on 12/21/10. Support 30.51, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.11 and 32.40.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below 4-month lows on 12/20/10 and remains neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below 5-month lows on 11/30/10 and remains neutral.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 11/26/10 and remains bullish for the long term. This RS Ratio has been in an uptrend for nearly 2 years, since 12/2/08.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 12/3/10. This RS Ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 20-year highs on 12/21/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 12/27/10 and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 12/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 12/22/10 and remains bullish.
CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs on 12/23/20, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose above 2-year highs on 12/27/20 reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 87.43, 86.83, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 98.65 and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price has been correcting and consolidating gains since it rose above previous all-time highs and confirmed a bullish major trend on 12/7/10. Support 1361.6, 1352.6, 1329.0, 1325.5, 1317.5, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1432.5.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/27/10, thereby turning neutral.
Silver nearest futures contract price has been correcting and consolidating gains in recent days. Silver rose above previous 30-year highs on 12/7/10, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 3-year highs on 12/20/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose above multi-year highs on 12/21/10, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: none.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price appears to be consolidating losses in recent days. The bond contract fell below the lows of the previous 7 months on 12/15/10, confirming a bearish major trend. Support 118.21, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 7-month highs on 12/8/10 and remains bullish. JNK absolute price rose above 6-week highs on 12/27/10, which is bullish for the short term. Price rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish for the longer term.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has firmed up moderately since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising RS ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected Notes at a relatively more subdued pace compared to the U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Note (IEF) over the past 4 months.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 4-day lows on 12/27/10, suggesting a short-term downtrend. USD may have found resistance near its 200-day SMA, which stands near chart resistance at 81.525 to 82.02. Longer term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish long-term price trend. Support 78.01, 75.23, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 81.525, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 58.8% Bulls versus 20.6% Bears as of 12/22/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 2.85, which is nearly two standard deviations above the long-term, 20-year mean. This is not overly excessive bullish sentiment in the second year of a bull market. Bullish Sentiment tends to rise in November and December every year. The ratio was as high as it is now or higher in Decembers of each year 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006, and none of these “high” readings led to bear markets. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.54, and the mean is 1.61.
VIX Fear Index fell below 8-month lows to 15.40 on 12/23/10, reflecting diminishing fear among options players. VIX is near its 3-year low of 15.23 set on 4/12/10. Before we take the current level of VIX as a sell signal, however, we might consider that VIX was as low as 9.89 on 1/24/07, nearly 10 months before the final tops in the price indexes. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 12/14/10, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed above 2-year closing price highs, thereby confirming the new high in the Dow-Jones Transportation Average set on 12/10/10. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. Many other analysts were fooled into calling “Bear Market” by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010, but my interpretation has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Trend.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,257.54) consolidated gains after rising to another new 2-year high on Wednesday 12/22/10, and thereby reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Over the past few weeks, SPX tested and held above 1173.00, the low of 11/16/10, and the 50-day SMA now at 1208.91 and rising. And SPX held well above the 200-day SMA, now at 1144.28 and rising.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.44% Singapore Index, EWS
1.33% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.21% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.14% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.98% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.93% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.89% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.88% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.88% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.86% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.80% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.68% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.60% Sweden Index, EWD
0.60% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.56% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.53% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.52% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.51% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.45% Networking, IGN
0.39% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.39% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.39% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.33% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.33% Austria Index, EWO
0.32% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.32% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.31% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.31% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.30% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.28% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.28% Japan Index, EWJ
0.27% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.27% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.27% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.24% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.23% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.23% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.22% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.21% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.20% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.20% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.20% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.19% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.19% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.17% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.17% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.17% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.16% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.16% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.15% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.15% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.13% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.12% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.11% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.11% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.11% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.08% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.07% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.07% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.06% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.06% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.06% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.06% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.06% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.05% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.04% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.04% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.04% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.04% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.03% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.02% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.02% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.02% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.00% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.00% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.00% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.03% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.03% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.03% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.04% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.05% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.05% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.07% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.12% Dividend International, PID
-0.12% Australia Index, EWA
-0.12% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.12% Canada Index, EWC
-0.16% Energy Global, IXC
-0.16% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.16% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.18% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.19% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.19% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.20% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.20% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.21% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.21% Water Resources, PHO
-0.21% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.24% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.25% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.25% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.26% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.27% Russia MV, RSX
-0.28% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.29% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.32% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.32% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.34% Global 100, IOO
-0.35% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.35% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.36% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.38% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.39% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.46% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.48% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.49% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.49% Italy Index, EWI
-0.50% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.50% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.54% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.56% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.58% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.60% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.62% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.63% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.65% India PS, PIN
-0.66% France Index, EWQ
-0.69% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.69% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.74% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.77% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.79% Germany Index, EWG
-0.85% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.85% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.17% Spain Index, EWP
-1.24% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.51% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
