Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA, and XLY absolute price rose above previous highs.

Industrial (XLI) stock sector absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 6 months.

Technology (XLK) stock sector absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 4 years.

Consumer Staples (XLP) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 months.

Utilities (XLU) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 months.

NASDAQ Composite absolute price gave a bullish signal when it rose above the highs of the previous 11 years and the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA.

The stock market was losing steam and looking vulnerable last Thursday before the employment news changed appearances substantially. The trend obviously is up now, with higher highs in all time frames.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,344.90) is approaching the highs of July and May, 2011, and it is probable that it will encounter resistance there. The stock market looks overbought and overdue for a downside correction.

The latest sentiment data indicates general optimism and bullish complacency. When the majority of investors has been bullish for some time, we assume that the bulls are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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AAII Sentiment: There were 44% Bulls and 25% Bears, according to the AAII weekly survey reported on 2/2/11. That was a moderate decline in mood from the 1/5/12 reading, 49% Bulls and 17% Bears, which was 1.3 standard deviations more optimistic than the 20-year average.

VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 6 months on 2/3/12, hitting 16.10 intraday. That is down from recent peaks of 30.91 on 12/8/11, 37.83 on 11/1/11, 46.88 on 10/4/11, and 48.00 on 8/8/11. This drop indicates a shift away from fear and toward confidence, which, according to Humphrey Bancroft Neill’s Art of Contrary Thinking, may be bearish. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1349.31, Fibonacci 87.5% projection 10/11 range
1347.00, high of 7/21/11

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1300.49, low of 1/30/2012
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.47, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 2/1/12, turning technically neutral again. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend for the longer term. Support 115.55, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 120.91, 121.64, 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) retreated near but held above its 50-day SMA on 2/3/12. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend. Support 104.00, 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 106.49 and 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 2/3/12 but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/19/12 but remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below the lows of the previous 11 weeks on 2/1/12, confirming a downside correction. UUP fell below its 50-day SMA on 1/23/11, turning technically neutral. UUP remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.93, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.18, 22.41, 22.46, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) remains neutral, above its 50-day SMA but below its 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks on 2/2/12. USO is neutral, below its 50-day SMA but above its 200-day SMA. Support 36.67, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.96, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 2/2/12, thereby confirming its preexisting uptrend. GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/23/12 and rose above its 200-day SMA on 1/10/12. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 167.05, 160.29, 159.68, 158.01, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 171.23, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 3 years on 1/24/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. GDX/GLD remains bearishly below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 2/2/12, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term uptrend. SLV rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12. SLV remains below its falling 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 32.02, 30.67, 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 33.45, 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 1/27/12, confirming a short-term uptrend. SLV/GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12 but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV/GLD fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/28/11, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) whipsawed back above its 200-day SMA on 2/3/12 but still remains technically neutral. Longer term, JJC’s 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
14.05% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
10.92% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
16.81% , PWER , POWER ONE
9.94% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
1.59% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
1.14% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
1.56% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.83% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
12.02% , KBH , KB HOME
1.88% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
4.71% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
6.11% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
2.30% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
1.66% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
7.20% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
1.32% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
1.76% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
1.59% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
6.29% , CMA , COMERICA
1.68% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
7.36% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
3.82% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
5.30% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
2.01% , VXF , Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
1.49% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
4.32% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.11% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
4.74% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
2.23% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
4.22% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
2.50% , IGN , Networking, IGN
5.17% , BC , BRUNSWICK
1.60% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.53% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-2.78% , KMX , CarMax
-2.33% , EL , Estee Lauder
-1.25% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-1.50% , MBI , MBIA
-4.80% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-1.33% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-2.65% , AON , AON
-2.28% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-2.85% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-2.15% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.87% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-1.81% , BBY , BEST BUY
-1.29% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-1.99% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.34% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-1.86% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
-1.37% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-1.61% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
-2.59% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-1.52% , AET , AETNA
-1.10% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-2.05% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-0.71% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
-3.30% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-1.94% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-0.69% , AES , AES
-0.40% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
-0.87% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
-0.79% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.48% , HNZ , HJ HEINZ
-0.72% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-0.68% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.32% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
3.11% Financial Services DJ, IYG
3.02% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
3.02% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.90% India Earnings WTree, EPI
2.86% Russia MV, RSX
2.83% United Kingdom Index, EWU
2.79% Water Resources, PHO
2.68% Financial SPDR, XLF
2.61% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.54% Financials VIPERs, VFH
2.50% Networking, IGN
2.43% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
2.40% Financial DJ US, IYF
2.37% Sweden Index, EWD
2.36% India PS, PIN
2.28% Mexico Index, EWW
2.28% Austria Index, EWO
2.18% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
2.17% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
2.15% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
2.12% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
2.10% Microcap Russell, IWC
2.08% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
2.07% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
2.06% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
2.05% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.98% South Africa Index, EZA
1.97% European VIPERs, VGK
1.95% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.90% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.88% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.86% Energy DJ, IYE
1.82% Germany Index, EWG
1.76% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.75% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.72% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.72% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.70% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.70% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.68% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.68% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.68% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.67% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.66% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.65% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.65% Belgium Index, EWK
1.62% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.61% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.60% France Index, EWQ
1.59% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.58% Italy Index, EWI
1.58% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.57% EAFE Index, EFA
1.57% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.57% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.56% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.56% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.56% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.56% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.55% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.53% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.52% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.52% Singapore Index, EWS
1.49% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.48% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.48% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.48% Australia Index, EWA
1.47% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.47% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.47% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.46% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.46% Energy Global, IXC
1.45% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.45% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.44% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.42% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.42% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.40% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.40% China 25 iS, FXI
1.40% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.39% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.39% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.38% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.37% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.37% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
1.37% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.37% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.36% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.33% Dividend International, PID
1.32% Spain Index, EWP
1.28% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.26% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.26% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.24% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.24% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.23% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.21% Global 100, IOO
1.21% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.19% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.18% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.17% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.17% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.17% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.16% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.13% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.12% Canada Index, EWC
1.10% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.07% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.03% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
1.01% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.96% South Korea Index, EWY
0.89% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.86% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.82% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.82% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.71% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.58% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.48% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.47% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.40% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.38% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.36% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.31% Japan Index, EWJ
0.31% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.29% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.26% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.25% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.05% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.05% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.15% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.43% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.68% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.79% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.84% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-1.37% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.99% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.01% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.15% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT