Media reports say that some prognosticator said that the Dow Theory is close to issuing a buy signal. This is wrong. The Dow Theory gave a buy signal 14 months ago, on 7/23/09, and has not given a sell signal since. Since the Dow Theory already is on a buy signal, it cannot issue a new buy signal.
On Monday, the Dow Theory registered a non-confirmation, where the Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose to a new 4-month closing price high but the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below its 4-month closing price highs. If such a non-confirmation persists, it may prove to be a warning to be alert for a possible minor trend reversal to the downside.
Consumer Discretionary stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose to another new 3-month high on 9/20/10 and remains bullish. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 4-month high.
Industrial stock sector absolute price rose to a new 4-month high on 9/20/10 and is now bullish again, with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA.
Materials stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell to a 3-week low on 9/20/10 and turned neutral by crossing below its 50-day SMA.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) absolute price rose to a new 5-month high on 9/20/10, confirming a bullish trend.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 12-week highs on 9/20/10 but remains neutral.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose further above 7-week highs on 9/20/10 and remains bullish.
Gold nearest futures contract rose to another new all-time high on 9/20/10, again confirming its preexisting secular bullish trend.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose above 5-month highs on 9/20/10, again confirming its preexisting intermediate-term Secondary Uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,142.71) rose 17.12 points or 1.52% on 9/20/10 to a new 4-month high. Stock indexes opened higher and added to gains as the day progressed. Volume fell 16% on the NYSE and fell 22% on the Nasdaq, however, thereby denying full technical confirmation. Upside volume on rallies has been relatively low for months, suggesting a lack of confidence. On-Balance Volume for the SPY remains bearish, below both SMAs and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Pure price momentum indicators perked up, showing renewed vigor for the short term. Longer term, absolute price of SPX remains neutral, above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, but with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Even with Monday’s probe into new 4-month high territory, substantial upside price follow-through with volume confirmation may be needed to validate a trend change. False breakouts have become more common in recent years.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.48% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
2.15% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
1.75% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
2.07% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
1.52% , NY , Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
2.13% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
3.38% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
8.22% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
2.55% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
4.96% , MTB , M&T BANK
1.94% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
2.30% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
7.39% , SNV , SYNOVUS
1.70% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
10.20% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
6.03% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
2.17% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
1.31% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
2.30% , DSV , Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
1.59% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
7.24% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
1.52% , IVW , Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
2.05% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
1.80% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.56% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
2.16% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
1.18% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
1.74% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
2.86% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
3.17% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
1.83% , RSP , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.61% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.62% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
2.58% , PIN , India PS, PIN
1.93% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
3.34% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
7.25% , BC , BRUNSWICK
1.66% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.69% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.56% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.88% , TIN , TEMPLE INLAND
-6.35% , IP , INTL PAPER
-1.61% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-2.98% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-1.65% , X , US STEEL CORP
-3.32% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-1.65% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-2.02% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
-2.32% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
-2.79% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-0.68% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
-1.23% , MON , MONSANTO
-3.38% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.16% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.73% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-1.02% , XLNX , XILINX
-0.43% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
-0.37% , PPL , PPL
-0.48% , CINF , CINCINNATI FIN
-0.49% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-0.34% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-0.02% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.52% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
-0.10% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose to another new 3-month high on 9/20/10 and remains bullish. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 4-month high on 9/20/10 and is very close to turning bullish again, with the rising 50-day SMA now only slightly below the 200-day SMA. Support 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose further above rising 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 9/8/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose to a new 4-month high on 9/20/10 and is now bullish again, with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 30.22, 29.77, 27.67, 26.79 and 26.66. Resistance 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above 7-week highs on 9/17/10. Still, the ratio remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA slightly below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLK rose to a new 4-month high on 9/20/10. Still, price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell to a 4-week low on 9/13/10 and turned neutral by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 4-month high on 9/20/10 and is now bullish again, with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell to a 3-week low on 9/20/10 and turned neutral by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Absolute remains neutral, with the 50-day below the 200-day SMA. Support 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 33.52, 35.47, and 37.56.
Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell to a 2-monh low on 9/20/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLU rose to a new 8-month high on 9/7/10 and remains bullish. Support 30.76, 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 31.74 and 32.08.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV has been bearish since peaking on 1/20/10. Support 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 9-month low on 8/30/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLF has been bearish most days after peaking at 17.12 on 4/15/10. The price 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Support 13.29 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Energy (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) plunged below 3-month lows on 9/17/10 and remains bearish. Longer term, the ratio has been bearish most of the time since peaking more than 2 years ago on 7/1/08. Absolute price of XLE has been bearish most of the time since peaking at 62.30 on 4/26/10. Support 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 55.23, 56.70, 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to another new 7-year high on 9/14/10, again confirming a secular (major) bullish trend. Absolute price rose to a new 5-month high on 9/20/10, also confirming a bullish trend. Price of EEM turned bullish on 9/9/10 when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 12-week highs on 9/20/10 but remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA slightly below the 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) appears to be trending lower again in recent weeks, since 8/3/10. Big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has firmed up since 8/23/10 but technically remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA modestly below the 200-day SMA.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose further above 7-week highs on 9/20/10 and remains bullish. Longer term, MDY/SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/7/99. Absolute price remains technically neutral, with the 50-day SMA slightly below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract fell below 2-week lows on 9/17/10 to confirm a short-term price pullback. Intermediate term, Oil has been consolidating more or less sideways/neutral in a trading range since 5/3/10. Support 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 78.86, 83.40, 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract rose to another new all-time high on 9/20/10, again confirming its preexisting secular bullish trend. Support 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, 1155.6, 1124.3, 1120.9, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9, and 989.3. Resistance: maybe around 1300.0.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been whipsawing sideways through moving averages in recent months. Best stand aside until a clear trend emerges.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 8-month highs on 9/16/10, confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose above 5-month highs on 9/20/10, again confirming its preexisting intermediate-term Secondary Uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.68, 3.795, 4.0825, and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price appeared to stabilize last week, after falling for 2 weeks. Bonds might be oversold for the short term. The Bond rose to its highest level in 19-months on 8/25/10, again confirming that the major trend remained bullish. Support 129.05, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 133.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has recovered modestly since falling below 3-month lows on 8/26/10. The Ratio had been heading lower (underperforming) most of the time since the peak on 1/8/10.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been RELATIVELY bearish most of the time since peaking on 1/8/10. This implies that investors have been choosing less inflation protection.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price broke down below 5-week lows on 9/17/10 before reversing to close higher. The short-term trend remains bearish. The Secondary, intermediate-term trend appears probably bearish. Long term, USD may be in a secular downtrend and merely consolidating losses since bottoming at 70.805 in March 2008. Support 80.745, 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90, 74.27, and 70.805. Resistance 83.315, 83.64, 83.96, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 36.7% Bulls versus 31.1% Bears as of 9/15/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 1.18, up from .078 on 9/1/10, which was the lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. The ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
The Dow Theory suggests a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,142.71) rose 17.12 points or 1.52% on 9/20/10 to a new 4-month high. Stock indexes opened higher and added to gains as the day progressed. Volume fell 16% on the NYSE and fell 22% on the Nasdaq, however, thereby denying full technical confirmation. Upside volume on rallies has been relatively low for months, suggesting a lack of confidence. On-Balance Volume for the SPY remains bearish, below both SMAs and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Pure price momentum indicators perked up, showing renewed vigor for the short term. Longer term, absolute price of SPX remains neutral, above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, but with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Even with Monday’s probe into new 4-month high territory, substantial upside price follow-through with volume confirmation may be needed to validate a trend change. False breakouts have become more common in recent years.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1144.86, high of 9/20/2010
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.34% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
3.32% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
3.14% Microcap Russell, IWC
2.86% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
2.78% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
2.78% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
2.78% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
2.59% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
2.58% India PS, PIN
2.53% REIT Wilshire, RWR
2.50% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
2.45% Sweden Index, EWD
2.44% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
2.44% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
2.44% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
2.41% South Africa Index, EZA
2.36% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
2.33% Netherlands Index, EWN
2.32% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
2.30% India Earnings WTree, EPI
2.26% France Index, EWQ
2.26% Water Resources, PHO
2.25% Australia Index, EWA
2.24% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
2.17% Financial Services DJ, IYG
2.10% Financials VIPERs, VFH
2.07% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.07% Italy Index, EWI
1.99% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.98% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.97% European VIPERs, VGK
1.94% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.93% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.92% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.88% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.87% Spain Index, EWP
1.84% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.83% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.83% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.80% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.80% Japan Index, EWJ
1.80% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.79% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.78% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.76% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.74% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.74% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
1.74% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.73% EAFE Index, EFA
1.69% South Korea Index, EWY
1.69% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.68% Dividend International, PID
1.67% Belgium Index, EWK
1.67% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.66% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.66% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.65% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.65% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.65% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.64% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.64% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.64% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.63% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.62% Germany Index, EWG
1.62% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.61% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.61% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.60% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.60% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.60% Energy Global, IXC
1.60% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.60% Energy DJ, IYE
1.59% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.59% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.59% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.59% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.59% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.58% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.58% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.57% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.56% Networking, IGN
1.56% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
1.55% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.53% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.52% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.52% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.51% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
1.51% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.50% Global 100, IOO
1.48% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.47% Russia MV, RSX
1.46% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.46% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.45% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.44% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.43% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
1.43% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.42% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.41% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.39% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.39% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.37% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.34% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.33% Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.24% China 25 iS, FXI
1.20% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.18% Austria Index, EWO
1.12% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.09% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.05% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.03% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.01% Singapore Index, EWS
0.97% Mexico Index, EWW
0.96% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.95% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.93% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.88% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.87% Canada Index, EWC
0.85% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
0.81% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.69% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.63% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.58% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.50% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.39% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.31% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.26% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.22% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.16% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.13% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.04% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.00% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.02% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.16% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.72% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
