iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 4/26/12, reconfirming its bearish trend.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 17 months on 4/26/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,399.98) rose 9.29 points or 0.67% on Thursday to its highest closing level in more than 2 weeks. NYSE volume fell 14%, however.

The S&P 500 is now down only 0.60% for the month of April. The stock market appears to be focusing on better-than-expected earnings reports this week–to the exclusion of everything else.

Seasonal tendencies at the end of the month are positive, but the SPX faces resistance at 1422.38, the high of 4/2/2012. Potential Reward relative to potential Risk remains unattractive for stocks at this time.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Available by subscription only (click here).
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory signaled a downside Secondary Reaction on 4/9/12, as both Industrials and Transports fell below their lows of the previous 3 weeks. The Averages gave an early warning by diverging after 2/3/12, as the Transports turned corrective and failed to confirm higher highs by the Industrials.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below the lows of the previous 11 weeks and closed further below its 50-day SMA on 4/24/12. Absolute price whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 4/25/12, but that does not appear overly significant.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 4/26/12, reconfirming its bearish trend. Systematically, BKF/SPY remains bearish below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 4/26/12, reconfirming its bearish trend. EEM/SPY remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) reconfirmed a bearish major trend when it fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 4/5/12. Systematically, EFA/SPY remains bearish below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/14/11. Don’t be fooled by the minor stabilization over the past 2 weeks–the important trend is bearish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) remains systematically bullish above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has been relatively weak for a year, since 4/5/11. IWM/SPY fell further below its lows of the previous 4 months on 4/10/12, reconfirming renewed downside momentum for the medium term. Systematically, IWM/SPY returned to bearish status again on 4/20/12 when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has been relatively weak since 4/5/11. MDY/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 4/10/12, reconfirming downside momentum for the medium term. Systematically, MDY/SPY remains neutral, below its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains slightly above the 200-day SMA.
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1392.76, high of 4/17/2012
1391.56, low of 3/29/2012
1383.29, low of 4/18/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1382.15, 50-day SMA
1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
1357.38, low of 4/11/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1337.35, low of 2/10/2012
1300.49, low of 1/30/2012
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1274.19, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 119.14, 120.91, 121.64, 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 105.80, 106.49 and 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) crossed above its 50-day SMA and its 200-day SMA on 4/25/12 and is now systematically bullish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) strengthened over the past 3 days, and it would not take much more price strength to turn TIP/IEF bullish again. Systematically, TIP/IEF remains neutral at this time: below its 50-day SMA (although just slightly below now), above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) remains systematically neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.23, 22.47, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 4/23/12. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 17 months on 4/26/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 4/3/12, turning systematically neutral. USO remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 38.31, 36.67, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.89, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke down below its lows of the previous 12 weeks and fell further below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 4/4/12. Systematically, GLD turned bearish on 4/17/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Support: 156.58, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 4/23/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Systematically, GDX/GLD remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 4/25/12, reconfirming a downtrend for the medium term. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below below its lows of the previous 3 months on 4/25/12, reconfirming a downtrend for the medium term. SLV/GLD remains below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) bounced over the past 4 days but could soon encounter resistance. JJC fell below its lows of the past 3 months on 4/16/12, confirming a downtrend for the medium term. Systematically, however, JJC remains neutral: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA now only moderately above the 200-day SMA. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.20% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
18.33% , DYN , DYNEGY
12.43% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
6.77% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
10.11% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
6.77% , XLNX , XILINX
10.18% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
5.71% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
3.72% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
3.59% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
3.94% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
9.46% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
1.37% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
3.73% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
5.85% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
2.84% , AZO , AUTOZONE
5.37% , EFX , EQUIFAX
5.80% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
3.16% , QLGC , QLOGIC
2.21% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
2.33% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
1.04% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
2.83% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
5.08% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
0.60% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
0.73% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
2.65% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
3.59% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
2.74% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
0.60% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
1.66% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
2.99% , EBAY , EBAY
2.20% , TER , TERADYNE

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-10.69% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-23.17% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-8.21% , AET , AETNA
-5.84% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-3.96% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-8.08% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-5.99% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-2.42% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-5.32% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-3.10% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-5.46% , TLAB , TELLABS
-1.76% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
-2.97% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
-0.86% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-3.13% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-3.19% , BLL , BALL
-4.25% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-2.19% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
-0.87% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-1.35% , CI , CIGNA
-1.55% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-1.77% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-2.14% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
-2.33% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
-1.66% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
-1.93% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.95% , LOW , LOWES
-1.30% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
-0.76% , FDX , FEDEX
-0.85% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-1.64% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
-0.66% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-0.63% , XRX , XEROX
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.31% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.04% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.96% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.41% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.25% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.20% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.17% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.15% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.12% Germany Index, EWG
1.11% Energy Global, IXC
1.08% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.07% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.07% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.06% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.03% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.01% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.99% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.99% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.98% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.95% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.94% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.94% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.93% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.93% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.92% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.92% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.91% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.91% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.88% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.87% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.87% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.85% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.85% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.85% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.84% Energy DJ, IYE
0.84% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.83% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.80% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.80% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.79% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.78% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.78% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.77% Singapore Index, EWS
0.76% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.76% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.76% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.75% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.75% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.75% South Korea Index, EWY
0.75% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.74% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.74% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.73% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.73% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.72% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.72% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.70% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.70% Austria Index, EWO
0.69% Global 100, IOO
0.69% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.69% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.67% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.67% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.67% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.66% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.64% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.63% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.63% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.63% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.63% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.62% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.62% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.61% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.61% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.60% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.60% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.60% EAFE Index, EFA
0.60% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.59% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.57% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.56% China 25 iS, FXI
0.56% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.51% Japan Index, EWJ
0.50% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.49% European VIPERs, VGK
0.48% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.47% Sweden Index, EWD
0.45% Networking, IGN
0.43% France Index, EWQ
0.43% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.42% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.42% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.42% Italy Index, EWI
0.41% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.40% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.40% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.39% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.38% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.37% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.35% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.35% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.33% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.32% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.31% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.30% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.30% Mexico Index, EWW
0.26% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.25% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.24% South Africa Index, EZA
0.23% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.23% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.22% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.21% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.19% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.17% Australia Index, EWA
0.16% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.15% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.13% Dividend International, PID
0.11% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.11% Canada Index, EWC
0.10% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.08% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.07% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.06% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.05% Water Resources, PHO
0.04% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.03% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.11% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.18% Russia MV, RSX
-0.22% India PS, PIN
-0.26% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.32% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.40% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.46% Spain Index, EWP
-0.69% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.04% Transportation Av DJ, IYT