Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 3/7/14, thereby confirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13, and that major downtrend could be resuming. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) remains systematically bullish but has lost momentum since rising to a 22-month high on 2/18/14. Any further relative underperformance by the NASDAQ 100 would turn the Relative Strength trend neutral.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/7/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,878.04, up 0.05%) absolute price opened higher but immediately reversed to the downside and continued to work lower until 11:16 am ET, when it made its low of the day in minus territory. SPX spent the rest of the day trying to recover and did manage to close up slightly for the day. SPX closed below the open and very near the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
NYSE total volume rose 7% to a level 7% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) fell to 399 from 546 on 3/6/14. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index remain weak relative to the price index itself. Both momentum oscillators failed to rise above their highs of 2013 as the S&P 500 price rose to a higher closing price high on 3/7/14. Previously, both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14.
The minor trend of the stock market has been up since 2/3/14, but momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The Averages have been diverging since 12/31/13, however, suggesting that all the parts of the stock market may not be in gear and pulling together in the same direction. If both Averages close below their lows of 2/3/14 without the Industrial Average confirming the March higher high of the Transportation Average, that could be a significant sell signal.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) remains systematically bullish but has lost momentum since rising to a 22-month high on 2/18/14. Any further relative underperformance by the NASDAQ 100 would turn the Relative Strength trend neutral. Absolute price of QQQ whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/7/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/7/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/3/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend., thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/13/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/11/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 2/7/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Previously, DBA had been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.04 on 1/22/14.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/28/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Support 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/23/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA is rising up toward the still-declining 200-day SMA, and the distance between the two SMAs is narrowing. Support: 127.15, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA is rising up toward the still-declining 200-day SMA, and the distance between the two SMAs is narrowing. Previously, GDX/GLD fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 2/5/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support 21.30, 18.26, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, but the trend has turned uncertain since 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 3/7/14, thereby confirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13, and that major downtrend could be resuming. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
22.97% , BIG , BIG LOTS
5.90% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
2.28% , VFC , VF
2.29% , BK , BANK OF NEW YORK
1.83% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
1.82% , INTU , INTUIT
2.09% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
1.91% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
1.46% , L , LOEWS
1.58% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
0.61% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
1.35% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
1.91% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
2.13% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
1.01% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
1.59% , NKE , NIKE STK B
1.48% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
1.11% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
0.77% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
1.54% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
0.98% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.50% , ADI.O , ANALOG DEVICES
0.53% , EFX , EQUIFAX
1.09% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
1.27% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
2.03% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
0.47% , PLL , PALL
1.02% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
0.52% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.21% , GPS , GAP
1.26% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
1.29% , WFC , WELLS FARGO
0.88% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.85% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
-1.38% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-3.09% , SEE , SEALED AIR
-2.20% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-2.81% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.02% , AEE , AMEREN
-1.55% , AMGN , AMGEN
-0.97% , TE , TECO ENERGY
-1.60% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.93% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-3.22% , UIS , UNISYS
-2.90% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-2.36% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
-0.51% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.96% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-1.84% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-0.53% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.32% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
-0.29% , JNK , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-2.42% , YHOO , YAHOO
-3.50% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
-1.13% , IYR , Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-2.36% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-0.38% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.76% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-2.33% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.68% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.38% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-1.15% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.39% , VWO , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.27% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.39% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.31% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.57% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.56% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.52% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.48% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.45% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.38% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.37% , Networking, IGN
0.36% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.34% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.32% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.30% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.28% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.28% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.27% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.27% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.25% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.24% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.22% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.22% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.21% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.20% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.20% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.19% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.19% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.19% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.17% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.15% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.14% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.12% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.11% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.10% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.10% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.08% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.07% , Energy Global, IXC
0.07% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.06% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.04% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.04% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.03% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.03% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.02% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.02% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.01% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.01% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.00% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.00% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.03% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.04% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.06% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.06% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.07% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.07% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.07% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.08% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.08% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.09% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.11% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.12% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.12% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.15% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.15% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.17% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.18% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.18% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.19% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.20% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.21% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.21% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.25% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.26% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.26% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.28% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.28% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.29% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.29% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.30% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.32% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.34% , Global 100, IOO
-0.34% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.36% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.38% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.38% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.39% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.39% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.41% , France Index, EWQ
-0.43% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.44% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.45% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.47% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.47% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.48% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.49% , Dividend International, PID
-0.49% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.49% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.49% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.50% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.51% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.52% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.53% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.54% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.55% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.57% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.59% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.59% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.63% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.65% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.66% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.68% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.68% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.68% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.71% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.71% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.71% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.74% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.83% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.03% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.06% , India PS, PIN
-1.07% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.08% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.08% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.10% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.10% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.13% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-1.14% , Germany Index, EWG
-1.15% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.16% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.25% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.26% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.27% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.38% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.39% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.41% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.42% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.60% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.69% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.27% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.28% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.33% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.55% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-2.81% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1,883.57, high of 3/9/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1834.44, low of 3/3/2014
1826.96, 50-day SMA
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1732.29, 200-day SMA
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
