The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA, turning neutral.
Materials SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA, thereby turning neutral.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks, again confirming a short-term downtrend.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,281.92) fell below the lows of the previous 3 trading days on 1/19/11, possibly suggesting a minor shakeout in a major bullish trend.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.37% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
3.04% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
3.06% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
1.40% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
1.21% , TJX , TJX
1.19% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
1.94% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
3.35% , IBM , IBM
1.17% , AN , AUTONATION
0.75% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
1.26% , ECL , ECOLAB
2.28% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.22% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
0.88% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
1.46% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
0.62% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
1.51% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
0.99% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
1.15% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.77% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
0.08% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.48% , ED , CON ED
0.27% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
0.45% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
1.49% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
0.62% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
0.65% , RTN , RAYTHEON
0.34% , VFC , VF
0.37% , KR , KROGER
0.15% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
0.50% , DRI , DARDEN REST
0.27% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
0.13% , SO , SOUTHERN
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-20.52% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-6.12% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-1.52% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-2.64% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.11% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-4.69% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
-4.71% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-4.48% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
-5.93% , X , US STEEL CORP
-5.02% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-2.42% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-3.08% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-3.89% , SEE , SEALED AIR
-4.28% , F , FORD MOTOR
-3.30% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.84% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-3.46% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-5.66% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
-2.70% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-3.08% , LM , LEGG MASON
-2.77% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.45% , WAT , WATERS
-2.64% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-2.40% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-3.53% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-3.55% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-3.68% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-3.14% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
-3.68% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
-4.36% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-2.59% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-3.37% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
-3.48% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 15-month highs on 1/18/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Absolute price of XLE rose above 2-year highs on 1/18/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 67.49, 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 78.10.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 2-year highs on 12/16/10 and remains bullish. Absolute closed above 2-year closing price highs on 1/18/11 and remains bullish. Support 35.03, 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 39.02 and 39.97.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/27/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 1/18/11 and remains bullish. Support 37.29, 37.15, 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 39.09, 40.13, and 40.70.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 1/19/11, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 1/12/11 and remains bullish. Support 37.72, 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 40.15 and 41.06.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 8-week lows on 12/16/10 and turned neutral for the secondary trend. This RS ratio rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10, which was a bullish confirmation of the primary uptrend. Absolute price of XLK rose above 3-year highs on 1/18/11 and remains bullish. Support 25.53, 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/8/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price of XLF rose above 9-month highs on 1/14/11 and remains bullish. Support 16.03, 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 1/18/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price fell below 4-week lows on 1/7/11 and has been trending lower since 12/16/10. Support 28.93, 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.58 and 30.29.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 1/14/11 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price rose above 9-month highs on 1/12/11 and remains bullish. Support 31.88, 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 4-year lows on 1/14/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/3/11 and is technically bullish. Support 31.23, 30.51, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.11 and 32.40.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below 6-month lows on 1/10/11 and remains neutral. Absolute price peaked on 11/9/10 and remains bullish.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) is bearish based on the negative relationship of RS, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 1/18/11 and remains bullish.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 10-year highs on 1/18/11, confirming a bullish Primary Tide uptrend for the longer-term.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/4/11, turning neutral technically. The ratio fell below 28-year lows on 12/3/10, confirming a major bearish trend. Big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/19/11, turning neutral. The ratio rose above 20-year highs on 12/21/10. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 1/18/10 and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 12/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 15-year closing price highs on 1/18/11 and remains bullish.
CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs on 1/12/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price consolidated gains after rising above 6-day highs 1/12/11, suggesting a short-term uptrend. Oil rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 87.25, 86.83, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 92.57, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price appears to be holding support above 1352.7. Gold rose above previous all-time highs and confirmed a bullish major trend on 12/7/10. Support 1352.7, 1329.0, 1325.5, 1317.5, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1432.5.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell below 5-month lows on 1/14/11, reconfirming a bearish trend for the intermediate term. The ratio has been trending lower since making a top on 12/6/10.
Silver nearest futures contract price appears to be holding support above 28.01. Silver rose above previous 30-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish major trend for the long term. Support 28.01, and 24.98. Resistance: 29.845 and 31.275.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 3-year highs on 12/31/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price consolidated gains after rising above multi-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 4.204, 4.08, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: none.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price has turned choppy and still looks uncertain for the short term. The bond contract fell below the lows of the previous 7 months on 12/15/10, confirming a bearish major trend. Support 118.21, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 121.20, 122.02, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 8-month highs on 12/28/10 and remains bullish. JNK absolute price rose above 6-week highs on 12/27/10, which is bullish for the short term. Price rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish for the longer term.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) is in a rising trend since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising Relative Strength Ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected Notes at a relatively more subdued pace compared to the U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Note (IEF) over the past 4 months.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 1/19/11, again confirming a short-term downtrend. USD reversed after meeting resistance near its 200-day SMA, which stands near chart resistance at 81.635 to 82.02. Longer term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish long-term price trend. Support 78.44, 78.01, 76.175, 75.23, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 56.0% Bulls versus 20.9% Bears as of 1/19/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 2.68, which is nearly two standard deviations above the long-term, 20-year mean. High levels of bullish sentiment are normal, and no barrier to continuing gains, in a major bull market trend. The ratio was higher at this time last year, at 3.36 as of 1/13/10, and the S&P 500 index higher now than it was then. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.54, and the mean is 1.61.
VIX Fear Index fell below 8-month lows to 15.37 on 2/14/11, reflecting diminishing fear among options players. VIX is near its 3-year low of 15.23 set on 4/12/10. Before we take the current level of VIX as a sell signal, however, we might consider that VIX was as low as 9.89 on 1/24/07, nearly 10 months before the final tops in the price indexes. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 1/12/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. While other Dow Theorists were fooled by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010 and called a “Bear Market”, my interpretation of the Dow Theory has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Tide Trend every day since 7/23/09.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,281.92) fell below the lows of the previous 3 trading days on 1/19/11, possibly suggesting a minor shakeout in a major bullish trend. SPX rose above the highs of the previous 2-years on 1/18/11, thereby confirming the Dow Theory Bullish Primary Tide Trend.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1251.48, low of 12/27/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.77% Austria Index, EWO
0.72% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.69% Italy Index, EWI
0.45% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.28% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.27% China 25 iS, FXI
0.26% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.22% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.21% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.16% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.08% Spain Index, EWP
0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.04% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.02% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.06% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.07% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.08% Australia Index, EWA
-0.11% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.14% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.15% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.16% Germany Index, EWG
-0.18% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.19% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.20% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.24% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.25% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.26% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.30% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.31% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.32% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.32% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.32% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.45% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.45% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.49% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.49% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.51% France Index, EWQ
-0.53% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.53% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.64% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.65% Global 100, IOO
-0.67% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.67% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.68% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.68% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.69% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.70% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.70% Dividend International, PID
-0.70% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.71% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.72% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.77% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.80% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.80% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.81% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.83% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.83% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.86% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.91% Energy Global, IXC
-0.95% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.98% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.00% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.01% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.01% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.03% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.04% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.05% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.05% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.06% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.08% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.10% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.11% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.11% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.13% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.13% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.14% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-1.14% Canada Index, EWC
-1.15% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.19% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-1.20% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.20% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.21% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.22% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.23% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.25% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.26% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.26% Russia MV, RSX
-1.27% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.30% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.31% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.32% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.32% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.34% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.34% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-1.36% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.44% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.45% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.46% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.47% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.47% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.48% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.49% India PS, PIN
-1.49% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.50% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.53% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.60% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.65% Water Resources, PHO
-1.81% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.12% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-2.14% Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.14% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-2.16% Financial DJ US, IYF
-2.17% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-2.21% Networking, IGN
-2.21% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-2.21% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-2.23% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.26% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-2.31% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.31% Materials SPDR, XLB
-2.40% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.42% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-2.50% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.51% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-2.53% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-2.57% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-2.59% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-2.64% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.71% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-2.77% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-3.04% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-3.08% South Africa Index, EZA
-3.16% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.30% Microcap Russell, IWC
-3.55% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
