The other day, my dogs and I took a walk up into a canyon on the backside of the property. My guess is that I am the only human who has been back there in more than few years, since anyone else would have to cross my path before reaching the isolated canyon. It is remote, quiet, and the ideal place to clear one’s head. Anyway, sitting up there, listening to the sounds of a California oak forest, I thought about how best I could serve you all in this coming year. My mind slowly walked through the possibilities, talk about this, talk about that … And then, in the quietude of that canyon, I realized that remaining open to the possibilities of this coming year is the best way to achieve my goal. I asked my dogs what they thought and they agreed, flexibility is a good way to go.
This coming year is special. We won’t see many like it in our trading lives, so we need to make the most of what is coming down the line. Frankly, I am excited. The path before us has many potential dangers, but, and as well, along the way many opportunities await. Our goal as traders and investors is to grab as many of the opportunities as we can and to maximize the potential of those opportunities. The opportunities will come in many forms, but the one I am seeing clearly now is trading futures. In the very near term (1st quarter, for sure), commodities will rise. Oil and copper are two that are rapidly beeping on my radar. The other that is beeping but not so rapidly is natural gas. “Nat-gas” is beeping less because it is more volatile than either oil or copper. Even though it is the darling of the near-term energy world, it still has issues with both recovery and delivery, so the play is less pure. Oil and copper, conversely, are inextricably tied to the global recovery, and as that goes so goes the rise in price for both these commodities, particularly copper
One can play oil and copper directly, but nat-gas might best be handled through Natural Gas Trusts such as PGH, SJT, CHK, DVN, or FAX. These trusts include all of the nat-gas and related companies, so buying one or a few of them eliminates stock picking. As well, depending on your choice, you should get paid to wait for the upward movement in the price of nat-gas, and some of these trusts will do that. By the way two analysts I follow for these trades are Joe Terranova from CNBC’s Fast Money, and Dennis Gartman who puts out The Gartman Letter. I like their trading mindsets and their knowledge.
My isolated canyon filled with blue, live, and canyon oaks is the perfect place to find the solitude I need to clear out the cobwebs and pump up the motivation. Since my October accident with the table saw, a deep grey cloud has hung over my life. That, and the cooler, short days, brought about a bit of melancholy, which robbed me of motivation. That bleak and listless sensibility is now gone, and all it took was some time, some mental clarity, and a walk with my dogs to a place that we call our own, a quiet place that gives me space to bounce thoughts off the canyon walls. I am back …
Trade in the day; invest in your life …
