S&P 500 Composite (SPX) rose 0.72% to 1,077.96 on 7/9/10, for its fourth consecutive daily gain, its first such winning streak since April. That accomplishment may highlight a significant change in market behavior. Short-term price momentum oscillators, such as RSI (14), MACD, Directional Movement, and McClellan Oscillator, still are showing bullish divergences. The SPX already has recovered more than half of its June-July price range, which is a sign of strength, and could go on to test 1085.27, which is the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the range. If SPX can penetrate 1085.27, it could move to 1131.23, the high of 6/21/2010. This seems reasonable, given the degree of the recent oversold condition and the depth of bearish sentiment. On the support side, a critical number to watch for the SPX is 1008.55, which is the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 2009-2010 range.

Utilities Stock Sector absolute price crossed above its 200-day SMA on 7/9/10.

Financial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) crossed above both 50 and 200 SMAs on 7/9/10.

Materials Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) crossed above its 50 SMA on 7/9/10.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) turned bearish on 7/9/10 when it fell below both 50 and 200 SMAs.

Crude Oil rose above 5-day highs on 7/9/10. Oil might have a chance for a further bounce up toward resistance in days ahead.

Gold rose above 2-day highs on 7/9/10. Gold’s short-term trend could be turning upward, although it seems too soon to have much confidence. Watch the week’s low at 1185.0 for potential support.

Copper rose above 6-day highs on 7/9/10. Copper could have a chance for a further short-tem bounce.

U.S. Treasury Bond price fell below 7-day lows on 7/9/10, thereby confirming a minor correction within a major uptrend.

The U.S. dollar price fell further below 8-week lows intraday on 7/9/10 before reversing to close modestly higher. The USD chart still appears bearish for the short term.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.56% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
0.97% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
4.73% , ACE , ACE
1.12% , NY , Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
3.12% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
7.82% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
1.73% , PZJ , SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
0.81% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
2.12% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
1.59% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
7.31% , MON , MONSANTO
0.79% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
0.54% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
1.26% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
4.49% , AES , AES
0.85% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
2.06% , CB , CHUBB
2.39% , GOOG , Google
2.19% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.62% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
4.99% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
4.36% , X , US STEEL CORP
0.54% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
1.18% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
0.85% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
0.74% , Q , QWEST COMMUNICAT
2.61% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
0.93% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
1.10% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
0.74% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
1.83% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
1.17% , DSG , Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
0.49% , SDY , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.86% , VTV , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.39% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
1.97% , ETR , ENTERGY
4.59% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
0.44% , VIG , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.61% , ELG , Growth Large Cap, ELG
0.94% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.86% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-1.71% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
-0.29% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-1.31% , MOT , MOTOROLA
-2.64% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-0.50% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-1.13% , PTV , PACTIV
-0.14% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-1.69% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-1.61% , HES , AMERADA HESS
-0.15% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.57% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
-0.30% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
-0.18% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-0.04% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-0.02% , MIL , MILLIPORE

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/17/10, thereby turning neutral. XLY/SPY remains above its 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLY fell below 4-month lows intraday on 7/1/10. Support 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 33.12, 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.

Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) is stuck between 50- and 200-day SMAs and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLI rose 4 consecutive days and still remains neutral. Support 26.79 and 26.66. Resistance 30.60, 33.12, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) turned bullish on 7/6/10 when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. In contrast, absolute price of XLP fell below 8-month lows intraday on 7/1/10 and is bearish. Support 25.30 and 24.95. Resistance 26.97, 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose above 6-month highs on 7/6/10. The XLU/SPY Ratio’s 50-day SMA is still below the 200-day SMA, however, so the XLU/SPY remains neutral. Absolute price of XLU crossed above its 200-day SMA on 7/9/10 and remains neutral. Support 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 30.39, 30.59, 30.91, 31.64 and 32.08.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) has been consolidating gains since peaking on 12/31/09 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLK turned bearish on 7/6/10: the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA, and price is below both SMAs. Support 20.01 and 19.51. Resistance 22.62, 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.

Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) crossed above both 50 and 200 SMAs on 7/9/10 but is only neutral because the 50 is below the 200 SMA. Absolute price of XLF turned bearish on 7/2/10: the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA, and price is below both SMAs. Support 13.34 and 13.08. Resistance 15.05, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) has been consolidating losses since making a low on 4/26/10. The XLV/SPY Ratio’s 50-day SMA is still below the 200-day SMA, so the XLV/SPY remains neutral. Absolute price of XLV fell below 11-month lows intraday on 7/1/10 and remains bearish because price is below both SMAs and the 50 is below the 200 SMA. Support 27.49. Resistance 29.93, 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Materials (XLB) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) crossed above its 50 SMA on 7/9/10 but is only neutral because the 50 is below the 200 SMA. Absolute price of XLB fell below 11-month lows intraday on 7/1/10 and remains bearish with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA of price since 6/18/10. Support 27.67. Resistance 31.80, 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.

Energy (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) remains bearish, below SMAs. Absolute price of XLE fell below 10-month lows intraday on 7/1/10 and remains bearish below SMAs. Support 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 56.70, 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been rising since its low on 5/20/10 but remains neutral, with the 50-day below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of EEM crossed above its 50-day SMA on 7/7/10 thereby turning neutral.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) has been rising since its low on 5/26/10 but remains neutral, with the 50-day below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of EFA crossed above its 50-day SMA on 7/8/10 thereby turning neutral.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio is neutral between 50- and 200-day SMAs. Absolute price fell below 7-month lows on 7/1/10.

Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) has turned neutral since making a high on 5/3/10.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) turned bearish on 7/9/10 when it fell below both 50 and 200 SMAs.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) turned neural when it fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/29/10.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 30 years on 6/15/10 and remains bearish. Big caps have been out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has turned neutral since making a high on 5/17/10.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains neutral but is very close to a bullish signal. Absolute price of MDY crossed below its 200 SMA on 6/29/10 and remains neutral.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract rose above 5-day highs on 7/9/10. Oil might have a chance for a further bounce up toward resistance in days ahead. Support 71.09, 70.93, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 79.38, 79.94, 81.29, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract rose above 2-day highs on 7/9/10. Gold’s short-term trend could be turning upward, although it seems too soon to have much confidence. Watch the week’s low at 1185.0 for potential support. Support 1185.0, 1168.0, 1156.2, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: 1264.8, 1263.7, and 1266.5.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been rising since 7/2/10 and is now technically neutral, between SMAs, but with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

Silver/Gold Ratio turned bearish on 5/17/10 when it crossed below both 50- and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA already below the 200-day SMA.

Copper nearest futures price rose above 6-day highs on 7/9/10. Copper could have a chance for a further short-tem bounce. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about prospects for the world economy, while strength suggests confidence. Support 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.123, 3.187, 3.2675, 3.3225, 3.795 and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below 7-day lows on 7/9/10, thereby confirming a minor correction within a major uptrend. Support 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 128.19, 130.31, 133.20, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 7/8/10, thereby turning neutral.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 9-month lows on 7/2/10 and remains RELATIVELY bearish. This implies that investors are choosing less inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP turned from bullish to neutral as of 7/2/10.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell further below 8-week lows intraday on 7/9/10 before reversing to close modestly higher. The USD chart still appears bearish for the short term. Support 83.07, 81.74, 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 86.71, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 37.0% Bulls versus 34.8% Bears as of 7/7/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1.06, down from 1.23 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio is the lowest in nearly a year, since 1.00 on 7/15/09. The ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

VIX Fear Index jumped up to 37.58 on 7/1/10, up from 22.87 on 6/21/10. A high and strongly rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index jumped up to 38.29 on 7/1/10, up from 23.12 on 6/18/10. A high and strongly rising VXN suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio fell to .059 on 5/7/10, a low level that indicates bearish sentiment. Its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio rose to 0.96 on 5/20/10, its highest level of the year. A high level indicates bearish sentiment. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

The Dow Theory suggests completion of a significant Secondary Reaction within a Primary Tide Bull Market since the 4/26/10 high, in my interpretation. (There is room for interpretation, and so different students of Dow’s Theory may have different interpretations.) The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX) rose 0.72% to 1,077.96 on 7/9/10, for its fourth consecutive daily gain, its first such winning streak since April. That accomplishment may highlight a significant change in market behavior. Short-term price momentum oscillators, such as RSI (14), MACD, Directional Movement, and McClellan Oscillator, still are showing bullish divergences. The SPX already has recovered more than half of its June-July price range, which is a sign of strength, and could go on to test 1085.27, which is the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the range. If SPX can penetrate 1085.27, it could move to 1131.23, the high of 6/21/2010. This seems reasonable, given the degree of the recent oversold condition and the depth of bearish sentiment. On the support side, a critical number to watch for the SPX is 1008.55, which is the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 2009-2010 range. Support 1008.55, 991.97, 978.51, 956.23, and 943.29. Resistance 1085.27, 1131.23, 1173.57, and 1219.80.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1131.23, high of 6/21/2010
1085.27, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-July range

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.86% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.39% Materials SPDR, XLB
2.34% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.19% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
2.18% Canada Index, EWC
2.15% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.04% South Korea Index, EWY
2.04% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
1.88% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.84% Sweden Index, EWD
1.83% China 25 iS, FXI
1.78% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.72% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.66% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.61% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.59% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.55% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.54% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.52% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.45% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.44% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.43% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.43% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
1.43% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.43% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.41% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.40% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.40% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.40% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.39% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.34% India PS, PIN
1.33% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.31% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.27% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.25% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.23% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.23% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.19% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.17% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.17% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.15% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.12% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.12% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.10% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.09% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.07% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.06% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.05% Networking, IGN
1.04% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.03% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
1.00% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.99% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.98% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.96% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.95% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.93% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.92% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.92% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.91% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.91% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.88% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.86% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.84% Water Resources, PHO
0.82% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.79% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.78% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.77% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.75% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.74% Australia Index, EWA
0.73% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.73% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.72% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.71% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.70% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.68% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.68% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.68% Singapore Index, EWS
0.68% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.67% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.65% Russia MV, RSX
0.64% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.60% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.59% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.59% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.59% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.58% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.52% Dividend International, PID
0.52% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.52% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.51% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.49% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.45% Energy Global, IXC
0.44% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.42% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.40% Mexico Index, EWW
0.40% Energy DJ, IYE
0.39% Italy Index, EWI
0.37% European VIPERs, VGK
0.33% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.32% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.32% South Africa Index, EZA
0.27% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.27% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.26% Global 100, IOO
0.24% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.22% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.22% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.21% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.18% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.15% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.10% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.10% Germany Index, EWG
0.10% EAFE Index, EFA
0.08% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.08% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.07% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.05% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.04% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.03% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.03% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.00% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.00% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.06% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.10% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.12% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.14% France Index, EWQ
-0.15% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.15% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.19% Spain Index, EWP
-0.23% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.26% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.26% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.32% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.57% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.62% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.66% Austria Index, EWO