I have tried all the technical analysis I know, but to no avail, and I am a bit emotional when it comes to trading. I want you to advise me on what to do.
Well, I can’t directly advise you, as I know nothing about your situation other than what you have told me. I can, however, suggest that you have two serious problems that should cause thoughtful consideration about your future as a trader. The first is my sense you don’t know what you are doing. When you say, “all the technical analysis I know,” it strikes me as naïve. I cannot imagine an accomplished technical trader saying what you said. I think you need to ask yourself, “How much do I really know about technical analysis?” Mastering the art of technical analysis can take years, not weeks or months.
Second, emotion is a no-no when dealing with money. It clouds your judgment, derails your decision-making, and it can cause personal anguish. This is another reason to give thoughtful consideration to your future as a trader …
Last spring, as Greece first teetered on the brink, there were rising expectations that the common currency would by now have plunged against the U.S. dollar, with some forecasters looking for declines approaching 20%. Talk that the crisis would lead to a breakup of the euro zone added to the gloom.
Think back to last spring when the issue of Greek debt roiled the markets. For the months of May and June, the market dropped on the fear of default. Many suggested the euro would fall to parity with the dollar and the Eurozone would collapse. Consider as well where the U.S. and global economy stood regarding the collective economic recovery. Do you remember? Now, remember what happened in the market.
The euro did not collapse, nor did the Eurozone, and, at the end of August, the market shrugged off the doom and gloom, looked at the economic fundamentals, and then ran uphill all the way to April of this year. This year, it appears the Greek tragedy has generated palpable fear and a lot of negative chatter, but the reality is that Europe as a whole and China will not let Greece default, at least not now, and everyone knows it. My evidence for this is that even though the chatter is far worse this year, the euro is faring much better this time around.
Maybe Greece will eventually default, but not this week or next month. It is hard to imagine big money would be willing to lose so much, but it could happen, I guess. In the meantime, the market will toil, boil, bubble, and then pop, especially if the U.S. and global economies begin showing signs of getting back on track. With the price of oil dropping, the price of food dropping, the price of gasoline dropping, the U.S. government on the verge of creating a workable deficit reduction plan, and the potential repatriation of over a trillion dollars of U.S. corporate money, it seems likely we are about to repeat the same move that happened last year after the market spent May and June fretting while watching yet another Greek tragedy
Trade in the day – Invest in your life …
