Consumer Discretionary stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs and remains bullish. XLY has been at the top of my sector rankings for more than a year and has outperformed substantially.
Industrial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 6-week highs, thereby turning bullish following a normal correction.
Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 18-month lows and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLF fell below 9-week lows last week, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below 3-month lows and remains neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below 3-month lows and remains neutral.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs and remains bullish for the long term. This RS Ratio has been in an uptrend for nearly 2 years, since 12/2/08.
iShares Russell 1000 Growth/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/SPY) rose above 19-month highs again and remains bullish.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 20-year highs and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs last week and remains bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 11/26/10. This RS Ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price moved further above the previous 9-weeks’ highs on 11/26/10. The short-term trend has been up since the low on 11/3/10. USD could be heading toward a test of its 200-day SMA, which stands just below chart resistance at 82.02.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,189.40) fell 8.95 points or 0.75% on Friday, giving back half of the gain it made on Wednesday. Once again, all of the loss occurred overnight in reaction to negative news and speculation involving the North Korea outburst and the European debt crisis. Although these remain sources of worrisome uncertainty for the short term, nevertheless, it appears that the US stock market is handling obvious uncertainties with relative calm and resilience, which suggests that there may be accumulation under the surface of unsophisticated reactive selling. I have no special insight into what might happen next abroad, but I do know from long experience that the worst-case scenario does not happen very often. SPX over the past 3 weeks appears to be merely correcting and consolidating previous large gains in a mild and contained manner, which is entirely normal and natural in a bull market. SPX has been holding above key Simple Moving Averages: the 50-day SMA, now at 1176.07 and rising, and the 200-day SMA, now at 1132.74 and rising. Longer term, SPX rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10, again reconfirming a bullish major trend.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.27% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.91% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
1.12% , UIS , UNISYS
0.50% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
0.80% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.03% , DSV , Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
0.06% , RAI , Reynolds American
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.74% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-1.95% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-0.77% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-0.66% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-1.42% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-4.50% , AFL , AFLAC
-3.15% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.98% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.93% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-0.28% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-0.56% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-0.53% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
-0.54% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
-3.39% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-1.28% , MET , METLIFE
-2.75% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-0.68% , ELG , Growth Large Cap, ELG
-1.07% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-0.44% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-1.58% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.22% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-0.54% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-0.08% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-1.51% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.09% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-0.19% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-0.07% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
-0.62% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
-0.09% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
-0.18% , IGV , Software, IGV
-0.02% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-0.81% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
-0.21% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
-0.04% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 11/26/10 and remains bullish. XLY has been at the top of my sector rankings for more than a year and has outperformed substantially. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 38.25 and 39.09.
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 10-month highs on 11/19/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/11/10 and remains bullish. Support 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 63.89, 69.95 and 78.10.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 6-week highs on 11/26/10, thereby turning bullish following a normal correction. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 33.53, 35.00, and 36.16.
Technology (XLK) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/22/10 and turned bullish again. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 25.28 and 25.69.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 2-week lows on 11/16/10 and turned neutral. Absolute price rose above rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 36.71, 37.56, and 39.00.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below 5-month lows on 11/10/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price remains above but has been testing its rising 50-day SMA recently, so XLP may be at a critical juncture. Support 28.31, 28.28, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.27, 29.29 and 30.29.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 6-month lows on 11/10/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV rose above 6-month highs on 11/4/10 and is now bullish. Support 30.40, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 31.73, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 5-month lows on 11/24/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU fell below 9-week lows on 11/23/10. Support 30.76, 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.11 and 32.40.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 18-month lows on 11/26/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLF fell below 9-week lows on 11/23/10, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Support 14.25, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 14.96, 15.68, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below 3-month lows on 11/26/10 and remains neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below 3-month lows on 11/26/10 and remains neutral.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 11/26/10 and remains bullish for the long term. This RS Ratio has been in an uptrend for nearly 2 years, since 12/2/08. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/8/10 and remains bullish.
iShares Russell 1000 Growth/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/SPY) rose above 19-month highs again on 11/26/10 and remains bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 11/26/10. This RS Ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 20-year highs on 11/26/10 and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 11/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/24/10 and remains bullish.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price moved above 6-day highs on 11/24/10, confirming a bullish trend for the short term. Longer term, Oil rose above 2-year highs on 11/11/10, again reconfirming a bullish major trend. Support 80.28, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 84.92, 88.63, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price over the past 3 weeks appears to be merely correcting and consolidating previous large gains in a mild and contained manner, which is entirely normal and natural in a bull market. Longer term, Gold rose above previous all-time highs on 11/9/10, again confirming the bullish major trend. Support 1329.0, 1315.6, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1382.9 and 1424.3.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 11-month highs on 11/22/10 and remains bullish.
Silver nearest futures contract price over the past 3 weeks appears to be merely correcting and consolidating previous large gains in a mild and contained manner, which is entirely normal and natural in a bull market. Longer term, Silver rose above previous 30-year highs on 11/9/10, confirming a bullish major trend.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 2-year highs on 11/22/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price over the past 2 weeks appears to be consolidating previous large gains. Longer term, Copper rose above previous 2-year highs on 11/11/10, again confirming the bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.90, 4.0825, and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price over the past 2 weeks appears to be consolidating previous losses. The bond fell below the lows of the previous 4 months on 11/15/10, confirming the preexisting bearish trend for the intermediate-term trend. Support 125.15, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 129.03, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below 5-week lows on 11/23/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price fell below 8-week lows on 11/23/10 and is now neutral.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has firmed up moderately since making a low on 8/24/10, which implies that fixed-income investors have been choosing somewhat greater inflation protection over the past 3 months.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price moved further above the previous 9-weeks’ highs on 11/26/10. The short-term trend has been up since the low on 11/3/10. USD could be heading toward a test of its 200-day SMA, which stands just below chart resistance at 82.02. Longer term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish long-term price trend. Support 78.01, 75.23, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 56.2% Bulls versus 20.2% Bears as of 11/17/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 2.78, which is between one and two standard deviations above the long-term mean. This is not overly excessive bullish sentiment in the second year of a bull market. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.54, and the mean is 1.61.
VIX Fear Index fell to 17.76 on 11/19/10 from 23.07 on 11/16/10. A relatively low and falling VIX indicates increasing bullish confidence and decreasing concern and hesitancy by options players to chase price strength. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 11/3/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 25 months. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. Many other analysts were fooled into calling “Bear Market” by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010, but my interpretation has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Trend.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,189.40) fell 8.95 points or 0.75% on Friday, giving back half of the gain it made on Wednesday. Once again, all of the loss occurred overnight in reaction to negative news and speculation involving the North Korea outburst and the European debt crisis. Although these remain sources of worrisome uncertainty for the short term, nevertheless, it appears that the US stock market is handling obvious uncertainties with relative calm and resilience, which suggests that there may be accumulation under the surface of unsophisticated reactive selling. I have no special insight into what might happen next abroad, but I do know from long experience that the worst-case scenario does not happen very often. SPX over the past 3 weeks appears to be merely correcting and consolidating previous large gains in a mild and contained manner, which is entirely normal and natural in a bull market. SPX has been holding above key Simple Moving Averages: the 50-day SMA, now at 1176.07 and rising, and the 200-day SMA, now at 1132.74 and rising. Longer term, SPX rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10, again reconfirming a bullish major trend.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1200.29, high of 11/18/10
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.39% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.48% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.43% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.43% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.29% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.22% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.21% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.13% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.07% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.05% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.15% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.20% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.20% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.25% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.28% Networking, IGN
-0.29% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.30% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.31% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.33% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.35% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.35% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.35% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.35% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.36% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.38% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.40% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.42% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.45% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.46% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.48% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.50% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.51% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.52% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.53% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.56% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.57% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.57% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.58% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.58% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.60% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.60% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.61% Water Resources, PHO
-0.61% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.62% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.63% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.64% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.64% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.65% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.66% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.66% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-0.66% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.66% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.68% Germany Index, EWG
-0.68% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.69% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.70% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.70% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.71% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.71% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.73% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.74% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.79% Austria Index, EWO
-0.80% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.80% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.81% Canada Index, EWC
-0.82% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.82% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.82% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.82% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.83% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.83% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.84% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.84% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.85% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.86% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.87% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.89% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.92% Russia MV, RSX
-0.92% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.96% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.96% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.98% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.00% Dividend International, PID
-1.01% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.05% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.05% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.07% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.08% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.09% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.13% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.14% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.15% Energy Global, IXC
-1.16% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.16% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.19% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.20% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.21% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.21% Global 100, IOO
-1.24% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.32% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-1.33% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.36% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.42% France Index, EWQ
-1.44% Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.48% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.48% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.49% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.51% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.52% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.58% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.60% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.60% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.61% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.63% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.64% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.67% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.69% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.69% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.84% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.87% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.87% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.88% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.88% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.97% Italy Index, EWI
-2.16% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.22% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.26% China 25 iS, FXI
-2.47% Emerging Markets, EEM
-2.75% Australia Index, EWA
-2.98% Indonesia MV, IDX
-3.01% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-3.15% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.17% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-3.39% Spain Index, EWP
-3.43% South Korea Index, EWY
-3.59% India PS, PIN
-4.17% Thailand MSCI iS, THD