The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE both rose to new highs on Friday 1/10/14, which is a sign of strength for the broad market of stocks.
The S&P Mid Cap 400 (MDY) absolute price rose to a new high on 1/10/14 and remains systematically bullish.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 1/10/14, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral).
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/10/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/10/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected ETF (TIP) absolute price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/10/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA.
Energy (XLE) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 3 years on 1/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,842.37, up 0.23%) absolute price opened higher on Friday but reversed to the downside after the first minute. By 11:35 am ET, SPX was in minus territory but held above the intraday low of the previous day. Another upside attempt recovered the morning loss. The S&P 500 closed slightly above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above the close of the previous day. Although the DJIA fell slightly, most other indexes finished modestly higher.
NYSE total volume fell 7% to a level 5% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose from a low level of 86 on Thursday 1/2/14 to 315 on Friday. That was still far below peaks above 800 in 2013. In December, Net New Highs remained below its previous highs of 2012 and 2013, thereby diverging bearishly compared to higher highs for the large-capitalization stock price indexes.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 remain weaker that the price index itself. Both were unable to rise above their previous 2013 highs as the S&P 500 price rose to higher price highs in December.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highest levels of the previous 15 months on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term uptrend. QQQ/SPY rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/9/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 1/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/9/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/20/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new high on 12/26/13 and remains systematically bullish.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/7/14 by crossing above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/10/14 and remains systematically bullish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 1/10/14, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 1/9/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA has been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, since it peaked at 35.58 on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 1/9/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. USO remains below both SMAs, and the 50-day SMA is below the 200-day SMA. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.07, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 12/31/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. GLD price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 122.32, 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 12/31/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.69, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/7/14, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/1, but SLV has held up better then GLD since 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.40% , PIN , India PS, PIN
3.36% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
2.95% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
3.62% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
2.09% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
2.39% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
4.59% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
2.66% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
1.37% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.76% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
2.85% , KBH , KB HOME
1.43% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
2.03% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
1.09% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.04% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
2.85% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
1.87% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
2.37% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
2.00% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
1.85% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
1.41% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
1.93% , KMX , CarMax
3.23% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
3.30% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
0.65% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.89% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
2.58% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
2.38% , FAST , Fastenal Company
1.65% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
0.50% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.94% , VWO , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.57% , KSS , KOHLS
1.32% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-13.77% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-5.93% , UIS , UNISYS
-1.57% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-0.97% , FNP , Fifth & Pacific Cos., FNP
-5.43% , AA , ALCOA
-2.37% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-1.79% , TIF , TIFFANY
-2.42% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-2.05% , HUM , HUMANA
-2.38% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-0.45% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-1.76% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
-1.14% , TGT , TARGET
-0.53% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
-1.85% , CVX , CHEVRONTEXACO
-0.62% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-0.53% , FISV , FISERV
-1.35% , BK , BANK OF NEW YORK
-0.67% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
-0.79% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
-0.89% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
-1.27% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
-0.28% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
-0.84% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
-0.96% , GE , GENERAL ELECTRIC
-0.59% , CVS , CVS
-0.34% , HON , HONEYWELL INTL
-0.44% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
-0.85% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
-0.50% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.17% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
-1.49% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-0.74% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
5.48% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
4.59% , Indonesia MV, IDX
2.87% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.85% , South Africa Index, EZA
2.58% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.46% , Mexico Index, EWW
2.40% , India PS, PIN
2.01% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.94% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.82% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.77% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.73% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.69% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.52% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.50% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.43% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.41% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.37% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.37% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.36% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.32% , Spain Index, EWP
1.30% , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.29% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.29% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.26% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.23% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.21% , Russia MV, RSX
1.20% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.19% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
1.19% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.09% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.05% , France Index, EWQ
1.04% , Switzerland Index, EWL
1.02% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
1.02% , Italy Index, EWI
1.00% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.00% , Australia Index, EWA
0.99% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.98% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.98% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.98% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.98% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.98% , Germany Index, EWG
0.97% , Austria Index, EWO
0.97% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.96% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.96% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.92% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.92% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.90% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.87% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.84% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.84% , Dividend International, PID
0.80% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.79% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.74% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.74% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.74% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.74% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.71% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.70% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.70% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.67% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.67% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.67% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.66% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.65% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.65% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.63% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.62% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.62% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.61% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.55% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.54% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.53% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.52% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.52% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.51% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.51% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.51% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.50% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.50% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.49% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.49% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.46% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.46% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.46% , Canada Index, EWC
0.45% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.44% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.42% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.42% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.39% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.39% , Energy Global, IXC
0.38% , Networking, IGN
0.38% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.37% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.37% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.34% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.34% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.33% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.32% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.32% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.31% , Global 100, IOO
0.31% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.31% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.30% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.30% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.30% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.30% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.28% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.27% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.27% , Water Resources, PHO
0.27% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.26% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.25% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.25% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.23% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.22% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.20% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.20% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.20% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.20% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.18% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.18% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.17% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.15% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.14% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.13% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.12% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.11% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.10% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.09% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.08% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.07% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.04% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.04% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.18% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.18% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.19% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.20% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.33% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1849.44 high of 12/31/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1823.73, low of 1/6/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1800.00, 50-day SMA
1767.99, low of 12/18/2013
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1689.07, 200-day SMA
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
