Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below 7-months lows on 2/6/13, confirming its preexisting downtrend.
Stocks closed mixed on Wednesday: the S&P 500 (SPX: 1,512.12) rose 0.05%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.05%.
Popular daily price momentum oscillators rose, but only modestly, and now are showing more clearly bearish momentum divergence compared to absolute price. For example, RSI(14) is 65.53, down from 74.46 on 1/29/13. MACD(12,26,9) crossed below its signal line on 2/4/13 and remains below it. Momentum is a leading indicator of price.
The Art of Contrary Thinking called for questioning strong bullish sentiment. Investor sentiment data indicated high degrees of optimism and bullish complacency in recent weeks, matching or exceeding extremes in September, 2012, when many stock price indexes hit peaks and reversed to the downside. Elevated levels of optimism are bearish because when the majority is extremely bullish, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but the market mood always reverts to the mean–eventually. Sentiment extremes are a leading indicator of price.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts made gains in 6 of the past 7 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 1/18/13, when both Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages closed above their closing price highs of the previous 5 years.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bearish again on 1/3/13, when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral. Price peaked on 2/1/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 1/23/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Price peaked on 1/2/13 and has been trending down since.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral. Price peaked on 2/1/13.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 12/17/12, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 1/8/13, thereby turning systematically bullish.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 12/14/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1514.96, high of 2/5/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1495.02, low of 2/4/2013
1489.46, low of 1/24/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1452.27, 50-day SMA
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, 200-day SMA
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically bearish again on 1/10/13 when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA and a 6-months long downtrend line. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.90, 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below 7-months lows on 2/6/13. Price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral on 12/26/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12, although the 50-200 spread has narrowed since 1/3/13. Support 34.38, 33.57, 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Support: 158.39, 157.40, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price appears to be in a neutral trading range, whipsawing around its 50-day SMA since 1/22/13. Support 29.73, 28.61, 27.97, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bullish again on 1/30/13, when it whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 2/1/13, which generally should be taken as a bullish signal. Still, JJC has been consolidating in trading range between 38.99 and 51.41 since October 2011. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
17.89% , MBI , MBIA
5.89% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
2.30% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
4.35% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
2.84% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
3.73% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
0.50% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
4.10% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
2.55% , CMI , CUMMINS
2.43% , X , US STEEL CORP
2.96% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
0.66% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
1.83% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
0.92% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
0.41% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.31% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
3.37% , GCI , GANNETT
1.02% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
6.78% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
3.90% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
2.32% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
1.97% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.92% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
1.65% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
1.33% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
5.75% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
0.28% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.45% , USB , US BANCORP
1.92% , KSS , KOHLS
0.35% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.72% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
1.53% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
1.69% , VFC , VF
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.72% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-5.96% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-2.68% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-2.94% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-4.32% , AFL , AFLAC
-1.95% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-1.23% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.55% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-1.56% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
-2.64% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
-0.33% , NI , NISOURCE
-1.80% , NE , NOBLE
-0.44% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
-1.47% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-1.21% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
-0.43% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-1.78% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
-1.06% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-2.25% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-1.74% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-0.44% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-0.80% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-0.51% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
-0.51% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
-0.25% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
-0.92% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
-0.26% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-1.58% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
-0.59% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
-0.46% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
-0.92% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
-1.28% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-0.55% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.01% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.97% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.33% Japan Index, EWJ
0.98% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.82% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.78% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.68% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.67% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.61% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.57% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.56% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.56% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.54% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.50% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.49% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.48% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.48% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.47% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.46% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.44% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.44% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.42% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.41% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.40% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.40% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.39% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.39% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.39% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.36% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.35% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.35% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.33% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.33% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.33% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.33% Networking, IGN
0.32% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.31% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.30% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.30% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.30% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.29% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.28% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.28% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.28% Canada Index, EWC
0.27% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.27% Water Resources, PHO
0.27% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.27% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.27% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.26% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.25% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.24% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.24% Dividend International, PID
0.24% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.22% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.22% Singapore Index, EWS
0.21% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.20% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.18% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.18% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.17% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.17% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.17% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.16% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.16% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.16% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.15% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.15% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.14% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.14% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.13% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.13% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.12% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.12% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.11% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.10% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.10% Spain Index, EWP
0.07% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.07% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.06% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.06% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.06% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.05% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.04% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.04% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.04% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.03% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.03% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.03% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.02% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.02% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.01% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.00% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.02% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.02% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.02% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.03% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.03% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.03% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.04% Australia Index, EWA
-0.05% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.05% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.06% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.06% Global 100, IOO
-0.09% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.09% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.11% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.14% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.14% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.15% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.17% Austria Index, EWO
-0.20% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.21% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.21% India PS, PIN
-0.21% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.24% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.25% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.25% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.26% Russia MV, RSX
-0.27% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.29% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.33% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.37% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.39% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.42% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.42% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.44% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.44% Italy Index, EWI
-0.44% Energy Global, IXC
-0.52% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.53% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.70% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.79% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.89% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.14% Germany Index, EWG
-1.17% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.23% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.37% France Index, EWQ
