I have not referred to my friend Albert Edwards’s views for a while. Given the rather difficult juncture at which the U.S. stock market finds itself, I thought it opportune to consult with the big guy over at Société Généralein London.
In short, Albert sees that the structural bear market in equities has not yet reached bottom. “We have long said that the de-bubbling process would end only when equities become very cheap and revulsion in equities as an asset class hangs in the air like a fog,” commented the famed strategist.
“Equity investors are in for a rude shock. The global economy is sliding back into recession and they are still not even aware that these events will trigger another leg down in valuations, the third major bear market since the equity valuation bubble burst. We will return to the valuation nadir last seen in 1982, with the S&P bottoming around 450.”
Albert is never short of drawing analogies: Investors’ continued optimism “as the equity bloodbath of the last decade enters its final, even bloodier phase” reminded him of the Black Knight in Monty Python & the Holy Grail. “Despite being grievously wounded by King Arthur, the Black Knight makes light of his injuries which he dismisses as a flesh wound. The vast bulk of the investment industry fails to appreciate that we are locked in a structural bear market and about to enter Act III,” he concluded.
